Alright, so, I headcanon that Jack Matt used to be the Colonel's second-in-command, and when things in Villedor went south, HE was the one that dropped the bombs, not the Colonel. When this backfired, he started the PKs and blamed the Colonel, even creating the nickname of The Butcher to further villainize him. The Colonel then had no choice but to retreat with the Renegades back to the Dam with Waltz, since they were both now effectively labeled as enemies of Villedor. The reason Jack Matt wants Waltz and the Colonel dead so badly is because they're the only ones who can prove that Jack Matt is the one who bombed Villedor with chemicals, not the Colonel.
anon i think that's quite literally canon within the game! and it's probably one of my FAVORITE plot points in the story
with the base knowledge of matt being untrustworthy as FUCK ever since you meet him, the little things we learn as we progress through the story (hell, sometimes these things are locked behind the choices we make) make it apparent matt has been the culprit all along
like the whole "butcher" thing falls apart the moment you see all the civilians living peacefully at the colonel's dam and when you learn that williams does not want the city destroyed. he does everything in his power to stop waltz now - just as he stopped the initial failsafe protocol by shutting the power down. now, what supposed madman who risked the people's lives with the chemical bombings would EVER do that???
that's why matt's obsession with williams is so.... surreal, out of place. jack matt has been spinning the narrative of the colonel being a heartless killer so much, that when he's one of the few trustworthy people we meet, we get to see the lieutenant's true colors
in the peacekeepers path juan himself outright accuses matt of being the true butcher before he's hanged - AND THE PKS GATHERED AROUND AGREE THERE HAVE BEEN RUMORS ABOUT THIS LONG BEFORE
matt is obsessed with keeping things under wraps so that NO ONE ever finds out the truth about the supposed saint who refused the shooting of civilians ordered by the colonel. he's been keeping this facade for so long, that it's beginning to crack when aiden arrives to villedor and changes things drastically
and that's why i LOVE the war between pks and the renegades, because both sides are morally gray to no end. with the pks blinded by the promise of keeping the people safe through their authoritarian means - lead by a man who's gotten away with what the citizens of villedor consider the biggest crime on this city. and on the other side we have chris williams - a man with seriously noble goals and doctrines at times, but still incredibly cruel. because renegades bring nothing but chaos and destruction to the people
a war lead by madmen with little to no consideration for the citizens. you know, all in all that's why i've been pro-survivor my entire playthrough!