jin - 30 points (gold+gold) - qualified
petrov - 28 points (silver+gold) - qualified
yamamoto - 26 points (silver+silver) - qualified
sadovsky - 24 points (gold+fourth) - may qualify
previous medalists competing next week:
lee - 15 points (gold+?)
lazukin - 15 points (gold+?)
uno - 13 points (silver+?)
nathan chen is also competing next week and has the potential to score very high, but since he only has one assignment, he won't make the final. his placement could affect who does make the final, though.
chen and uno can score in the 210-220 range if they do well, so gold and silver is probably down to them. uno must get at least silver to qualify for the final. lee and lazukin can probably score in about the 200-210 range, so bronze is probably down to them. whoever between them gets bronze will qualify for the final. whoever gets fourth will go into a tiebreaker with sadovsky - the skater with the higher combined scores from both their competitions will qualify (ie. sadovsky's combined score is 384.52 - the fourth-place finisher next week has to beat that to qualify).
obviously this is assuming that everyone skates relatively well and no one completely bombs, but that's always possible too, and it makes things a lot less predictable. anything can happen in juniors.
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sakhanovich - 30 points (gold+gold) - qualified
medvedeva - 30 points (gold+gold) - qualified
higuchi - 28 points (silver+gold) - qualified
nagai - 26 points (silver+silver) - qualified
nakashio - 24 points (fourth+gold) - may qualify
turzynbaeva - 24 points (bronze+silver) - probably won't qualify
previous medalists competing next week:
sotskova - 13 points (silver+?)
(karen) chen - 11 points (bronze+?)
proklova - 11 points (bronze+?)
the podium will probably consist of these three girls. all three of them are injured this season but are also capable of scoring very well when they're on, so it's difficult to predict the podium order. sotskova has the best chance of making the final since she already has a silver and needs another silver or gold to qualify. chen and proklova must win in order to qualify. if any of them bomb and fail to medal entirely, it gets more complicated, so for now i'll just assume all three of them will medal.
scenario 1) sotskova-proklova-chen podium:
sakhanovich - 30 points (gold+gold) - qualified
medvedeva - 30 points (gold+gold) - qualified
higuchi - 28 points (silver+gold) - qualified
sotskova - 28 points (silver+gold) - qualified (maybe above higuchi but unlikely)
nagai - 26 points (silver+silver) - qualified
nakashio - 24 points (fourth+gold) - qualified
proklova (24 points, bronze+silver) and turzynbaeva (24 points, bronze+silver) would lose to nakashio (24 points, fourth+gold) because her gold beats their silvers in a tiebreaker. with two bronzes, chen has no chance of making the final.
scenario 2) sotskova-chen-proklova podium:
sakhanovich - 30 points (gold+gold) - qualified
medvedeva - 30 points (gold+gold) - qualified
higuchi - 28 points (silver+gold) - qualified
sotskova - 28 points (silver+gold) - qualified (maybe above higuchi but unlikely)
nagai - 26 points (silver+silver) - qualified
nakashio - 24 points (fourth+gold) - qualified
same as scenario 1; this time, chen and turzynbaeva would be shut out by nakashio in a tiebreaker.
scenario 3) proklova-sotskova-chen podium:
sakhanovich - 30 points (gold+gold) - qualified
medvedeva - 30 points (gold+gold) - qualified
higuchi - 28 points (silver+gold) - qualified
proklova - 26 points (bronze+gold) - qualified
nagai - 26 points (silver+silver) - qualified
sotskova - 26 points (silver+silver) - qualified (maybe above nagai)
scenario 4) proklova-chen-sotskova podium:
sakhanovich - 30 points (gold+gold) - qualified
medvedeva - 30 points (gold+gold) - qualified
higuchi - 28 points (silver+gold) - qualified
proklova - 26 points (bronze+gold) - qualified
nagai - 26 points (silver+silver) - qualified
nakashio - 24 points (fourth+gold) - qualified
chen (24 points, bronze+silver), sotskova (24 points, silver+bronze) and turzynbaeva (24 points, bronze+silver) would lose to nakashio in a tiebreaker.
scenario 5) chen-proklova-sotskova podium:
sakhanovich - 30 points (gold+gold) - qualified
medvedeva - 30 points (gold+gold) - qualified
higuchi - 28 points (silver+gold) - qualified
chen - 26 points (bronze+gold) - qualified
nagai - 26 points (silver+silver) - qualified
nakashio - 24 points (fourth+gold) - qualified
proklova and sotskova would lose to nakashio in a tiebreaker.
scenario 6) chen-sotskova-proklova podium:
sakhanovich - 30 points (gold+gold) - qualified
medvedeva - 30 points (gold+gold) - qualified
higuchi - 28 points (silver+gold) - qualified
chen - 26 points (bronze+gold) - qualified
nagai - 26 points (silver+silver) - qualified
sotskova - 26 points (silver+silver) - qualified (maybe above nagai)
interestingly enough, if sotskova/proklova/chen all medal in some order next week, nakashio still has a 67% chance of making the final. but this is assuming that all six scenarios above are equally likely, which is probably not really true. but all six of them are possible.
