I think you are great at debating and forming arguments, but I deeply disagree with what you said on that John Aziz Twitter thread. Now I might be missing context clues, because I don’t know who Aziz is, but it is true that terrorists are a big threat to civilians, regardless of whether there are little or plenty of them, as shown by the fact that a single one can kill dozens. Denying so, because those targeted think (not necessarily even act) differently, is, at best, deflective redherring and, at worst, inhumane. Two wrongs don’t make a right. Any and everyone who terrorises innocents is a big threat to any and everyone. Peace is not just the lack of war.
[We're talking about this post]
John Aziz, a Palestinian-British musician and writer, is often one of the more cogent voices in this space.
Other times, he's talking out of his ass.
In the exchange we had, he was firmly in the latter category.
To be clear: Kahanists are often dangerous and violent - and they're always assholes. I’d love to see Israel's security forces treat those who commit violent crimes against anyone with the same treatment they dole out for other terrorists - but calling them a "big threat" to the Palestinian people is statistically ridiculous.
Anon says a single terrorist can kill dozens, therefore they are a "big threat" regardless of their numbers.
Terrorism is a tragedy for the victims, but a "threat" to a population is measured by its capacity to actually destroy or dismantle that population. When we look at the numbers, Kahanism is a rounding error compared to the actual killers of Palestinians.
Let's look at the numbers.
To give Aziz every possible advantage, I’m going to include all Israeli non-state actors (civilian attackers, settlers, etc.) in this tally, whether they were card-carrying Kahanists or not.
From 1947 to 2022, a generous estimate suggests roughly 1,550 Palestinians were killed by Israeli non-state actors. This includes the horrors of Deir Yassin (1948), the Cave of the Patriarchs (1994), and non-state violence in the West Bank. All of that is disgusting, unacceptable, and abhorrent. It must be condemned, fought, and severely punished.
But how do those numbers compare to other threats? Are they a "big threat?"
In the same window of time that all Israeli vigilantes killed 1,550 people, Arab states and internal Palestinian factions killed 40,000 to 50,000 Palestinians. That is a ratio of roughly 1:32. If you isolate actual Kahanists, the ratio jumps to something like 1:500.
If you're a Palestinian, you are statistically fifty times more likely to be killed by a fellow Arab than by a Kahanist.
Meanwhile, roughly 5,000 Israelis were murdered by Palestinian non-state actors in that same period.
This means that an Israeli is over three times more likely to be murdered by a civilian Palestinian non-state actor than a Palestinian is to be killed by any Israeli non-state actor - and if we look specifically at Kahanists, that disparity jumps to 50:1.
Are Kahanists absolute ghouls?
@#$% yes. I wouldn't piss in their mouths if their tongues were on fire. @#$% them and @#$% anybody who defends them.
Can they honestly be described as a "big threat to Palestinians?"
Not if you know how to read and count, no.
We can condemn them without ignorance and innumeracy. They're nowhere NEAR the biggest threats to Palestinian lives.
The biggest cause of Palestinian death has undeniably been the IDF at roughly 150,000 deaths between 1947 and 2022 - a reality that persisted primarily because the Arab League and Palestinian leadership prioritized geopolitical posturing and eliminationism over peace for 80 years. All they had to do was accept Israel's existence and stop attacking it. (International Humanitarian Law is clear that the responsibility for deaths often falls on those using human shields or initiating conflict, but that's a topic for another day.)
So when Aziz highlights Kahanists as "a big threat to Palestinians," he's completely full of shit. He deserved to be told so, Anon's righteous indignation is misplaced, and I don't have any regrets about explaining how math works to either one.
Anon, I love the passion, but please let your misplaced indignation fuel a trip to the library. You can learn some history and math there.
