so beloved mutual @kittymalicious dropped some questions and insights I found to be so excellent I wanted to post them here separately (and make you all look at them and my replies). number one is from this ask about Johanna
In your head canon, at what point did people realize she was faking being the weakling? Did the Capitol watching or the tributes stuck inside with her realize first? (x)
the thing that I find to be so compelling about Johanna’s strategy (and the reason that she is the only victor I would read the Games of, including if SC wrote them) is because she is never seen as a contender in the Games, and that’s by design. I think part of what unsettles Snow so deeply about Johanna (and she does unsettle him!) is the fact that what made her a victor was her abject refusal to go along with the structure of the Games in any way. she exploited a weakness he didn’t even know existed and played everyone, the tributes and the Capitol alike.
Katniss says that Johanna wins by portraying herself as weak so that she would be ignored (cf), which tells me that the districts (and thus the Capitol) did not know that Johanna was actually a contender for a long time. I think if she was seen as a weakling, the Capitol wouldn’t focus on her with airtime, and if she was killing other tributes earlier in the Games, they’d see it as a happy accident of her picking off stragglers, but I honestly don’t think she was killing early on in the Games. the victors win in large part because of luck with the environment of their arenas. if Johanna’s arena was wooded (and I think it was, because how else is she going to get an axe and what else is she realistically going to know how to use), she’s got the skills to get up in a tree and stay there, or keep moving and let as many of the others fight it out as possible, because she’s already established that she isn’t someone to hunt down and if she’s as weak as she’s portrayed herself as, they’ll probably think she’ll just die of natural causes (as we know most tributes do).
I think that the tributes inside probably realized first that she was a contender, but the Capitol was quick on their heels. I don’t think Johanna really started killing until the finale, and then people are moving so fast, it’s so chaotic, that I doubt the other tributes even knew what hit them. they’d written her off, if she sneaks up on them and moves fast maybe a couple of them will realize that they’ve underestimated her but I think it was so shocking that many of them don’t realize at all. at that point, it’s a disaster for the Capitol. they’ve only shown Johanna as a weakling, maybe glossed over her surviving in the woods or killing another tribute before, and this is a huge shock and upset, which is the last thing Snow wants after the 70th. but it’s already over. Johanna’s their victor, and now they have to work with that.
for what it’s worth, I think that Johanna was genuinely upset and crying and very scared when she was reaped. I think that Seven is a small enough district that Blight knew her, had a guess as to what she might be capable of, but more importantly, knew Johanna had the emotional intelligence and manipulative capacity to pull the strategy she used off, and it would’ve been the only way to move forward from something like her being very publically emotional at the reaping. so I think the first time she was crying and upset, it was genuine. I think every time after that, and how she presented herself going forward after the reaping, was not.