big news! not only do we now have the sequel to “anyhermit”, but Joe just said on stream that he got the idea from his daughter watching my little pony and realising he can replace words with “hermits”… so this is quite literally inspired by “everypony”
what’s interesting in Zed’s video is that he died multiple times but when he presses tab he isn’t a red name - nor did he get the reaper notification. Now, irl, he probably just didn’t enter the game because it wouldn’t fit with what he planned for his episode and overall season, Zed rarely gets involved with inter server events.
HOWEVER, with the demise 2.0 being so similar to red lives in third life (red name, etc), I imagine the fandom is probably brewing in some ties with watcher lore, with the watchers trying to no longer just containing their antics in the life games but targeting Grian’s friends on Hermitcraft directly.
This is funny because it means Zedaph, being Zedaph, is immune to the whims of inter dimensional gods and does whatever the fuck he wants
edit: I have seen you guys in the notes talking about zedeath and… good point I completely forgot about that LOL but no of course he isn’t a “reaper”, when he already is a reaper death guy, been there done that
fake book covers based on Cub’s museum gift shop and the signs he posted with fake book titles! This was a lot of fun haha. I know there are more fake books, and now he’s getting signed books from hermits, so I plan on making more soon! May even make a Reddit account just to post these guys on the subreddit
design notes under cut!
The Diamond Pillar Saga: Hotguy(TM) Flies Again - this title evoked such a visceral image of something you’d find in a Scholastic book fair so I went for sort of pre-teen superhero action novel, the kind with a bunch of pictures and stupid chapter titles. I imagine in-universe Scar is trying to sell as much Hotguy merch as possible so whilst he has stuff for the adults (shirtless calendars) he’d also have comic books and novels for the kids. There’s a concorp logo because I like to think the Hotguy brand is owned by concorp and it was just a cool touch
Grian’s Theory of The Mind - have you ever seen books on like psychology and breaking habits and behaviour, that kind of stuff? They always look like this. There’s a yellow background, a simple abstract design, a bunch of book awards/reviews, and a single sentence hook. This one was the easiest and most fun to design!
Joe Hills: Transformative Poems - this was based on the “Joe Hills Poetry Corner”. Transformative poems is from “transformative works” meaning… fanfiction basically. Joe has written fanfic before and I thought an Iliad/Hermit crossover would be something he’d do. Joe made the cover himself so it has a dyed leather cover and a simple design. He tried to ask Cleo for a review so he could put one on the front but she was kinda mean about it and laughed at him so he wrote a fake one instead
Ren the King: A Complicated Legacy - this one had no explicit author but I decided Cleo made the most logical sense. Historical non-fiction books often have these B+W photo backgrounds with some dramatic, fancy text overtop, so I painted the Crastle and added then messed around with text. There’s a reduced sticker over Cleo’s name because this is Cub’s gift shop and he wouldn’t want to give her credit (but still wants to stock up his shop)
Doing the maths: Grian's failure at getting a mending book
lots of talk about maths and probabilities below the cut! but there's a graph and simple explanation at the end if you want to get the gist of it and are bad at maths.
(I am still young and learning maths, critique/advice always welcomed)
What are the odds of getting a mending book in Minecraft?
(I am assuming Grian has been doing all his fishing with Luck of the Sea 3)
The probability of a mending book is actually a bit annoying to estimate. The Minecraft Wiki lists fishing up an enchanted book as 1.9% chance. This is for ANY enchanted book. The Minecraft wiki talks about how the chance of an enchantment being selected is calculated. Mending has a weight of 2. Using the table, mending has a probability of 2/135.
However, Grian is looking for any book with mending, not just a pure mending book. Additional enchantments are calculated in a different way, involving RNG, which means it won't be as easy to model. Due to this reason, I'll just be using the odds for a pure mending book throughout.
TLDR: a mending book has a 0.028..% chance (2/135*0.019*100)
Grian's Data
According to this screenshot, Grian has used a fishing rod 5679 times. This number may not be fully accurate, as it includes the times he's fished other players, rather than just fished for items, but it is a good estimate.
To help visualise this data, with a median waiting time between catches of 17.5 seconds, Grian has spent over 20 hours fishing so far! He may have a problem.
Is this statistically significant?
Hypothesis testing (p-value approach):
H0: p = 19/67500 (the null hypothesis - he has no mending books because of chance)
H1: p < 19/67500 (the alternate hypothesis - he has no mending books due to different odds)
5679 trials, 0 mending books
X ~ B(5679, 19/67500) (binomial distribution, 5679 tries with a probability of a mending book being 19/67500, where X is the number of mending books)
p(X=0) (what is the probability the number of mending books being 0)
p = 0.2021473392
Now, the point at which data becomes significant is subjective. For instance, you *could* get a million heads in a row flipping a coin, it's not impossible, but at a certain point, you can begin to say "okay there's something not normal about this". For this approach, the closer the p-value is to 0, the more evidence there is against the null hypothesis . The p-value here is far above a significance level of 0.01, or 0.05, or 0.1. There isn't a clear line between significant/non-significant, but this is answer is quite a bit far from 0
With this, I cannot reject the null hypothesis.
Personal conclusion: this is not statistically significant, Grian is just unlucky.
Are other values statistically significant?
Gem's proposed 9000: results in a p-value of 0.079... more significant than Grian's number but I don't imagine Mojang would be too concerned. As said though, it's all subjective.
I am bad at maths, what does all this mean?
Here is a graph, showing what number of mending books you might have after 5679 tries. The height of the bar represents the probability of getting that amount. The numbers at the top are the (rounded) numbers I used in my calculation
The pink column is 0 mending books - like what Grian has! As you can see, it is less likely than getting 1 or 2 books, but not too uncommon to happen.
End conclusion: Grian has bad luck. Like, not as hilariously bad as he thinks, but still bad. If he keeps going, chances are he will get a mending book, but I think he should probably stop fishing because at this point he has a problem.
