Loghain-related feel/thoughts
Remember Threnn in Inquisition, and her defense of Loghain? She’s adamant Loghain pulling out at Ostagar was a tactical decision - and I kinda have to agree with her.
As the Warden races to the Tower of Ishal, it’s clear that the darkspawn horde is larger than Cailan [or Duncan, for that matter] had expected. It’s massive. Even with the addition of Loghain’s forces, defeat was a certainty.
The trouble with Cailan was, as good a king as he was - and he sounds like the kind of guy who, with experience, would’ve grown into a really great king - he was living in the shadow of his father. [I’m getting some serious Carver vibes from him]. Ostagar is his was of trying to prove to himself - and, possibly, all of Ferelden - that he is to be respected in his own right, rather than just as his father’s son. He relies too heavily on the victories (against the darkspawn) preceding the battle of Ostagar - they appear to have over-inflated his confidence.
Now, I’m not terribly sure about the timeline, but here are my thoughts: Loghain had no reservations about the battle they were to face. Whether it was his battlefield experience, or instinct, he knew that Ostagar wouldn’t work, and he “tries” to talk Cailan out of it - tries, because it’s clear that his attempt at dissuasion has the opposite effect on Cailan. And Loghain, experienced tactician as he was, likely knew that using reverse psychology on Cailan would work [because, again, Cailan has the desperate desire to prove himself.]
I guess what kinda-sorta impresses me is just how meticulous all of his plans were. At some point of time, between the first skirmish against the darkspawn and the battle of Ostagar, he decided that Cailan wasn’t a good king [no doubt, Cailan’s talks with Orlais would’ve only cemented that impression further]. So what does he do? He plans.
First, he identifies the biggest hurdles to his plans - Cailan’s strongest supporters. Arl Eamon, and of course, Teryn Cousland. With the help of Howe, he neutralizes the Cousland threat [again, before Ostagar!] and gets Jowan to poison Eamon. Without the two strongest supporters, Cailan’s remaining allies wouldn’t have been powerful enough to oppose Loghain’s plans - and possibly he planned to try and sway them over to his side.
He comes up with the plan. Keep his forces separated from those of Cailan. Have Wardens light the signal at the Tower of Ishal. Remember the Tower? Which he was supposed to have protected?
Yeah, he doesn’t do a good job. He doesn’t let anyone in, because otherwise they’d likely have discovered the lax security he had - which allowed for the darkspawn to take over the Tower.
His plan was to let Cailan fall during the battle, pull out his forces, then claim that the Wardens had not lit the signal in time, so no suspicion would fall on him.
But things don’t go according to his plan. The signal is lit, and what’s more, people have seen it. He pulls back his forces anyway [a strategic decision, IMO] but the damage is done. He tries to rectify the situation by pushing the blame onto the grey wardens, knowing that his past accomplishments - and his devotion to Ferelden - would convince most people. And it works, for the most part, except for the survivors - who were too few to be a real threat, anyway.
There’s a second hitch to his plans. Alistair and the Warden survive. Loghain doesn’t know much about the Warden, but it’s likely he knew Alistair’s true parentage, and so Alistair is a threat, seeing as he would be next in line for the throne.
His attempt [Howe’s suggestion, really] to assassinate them doesn’t work. And they then go on to cure Arl Eamon, a significant opponent to Loghain. I wonder if this was the point where he began to suspect that the tide had turned against him?
Loghain was wrong to do the things he did. But man, was he a great tactician, or what. To have that level of planning is almost insane, when you think about it.
Which is what makes Flemeth’s act so much more important. Without her, Alistair and the Warden would have died. The Blight would have spread, and thanks to the imminent civil war between Loghain’s supporters and opponents, it would have gone unchecked. And given how Ferelden was just recovering from the war with Orlais, the Blight would have completely and utterly destroyed it. Makes her whole “I nudge history, when it’s required. Other times, a shove is needed.” quote so much more significant. [Also, I’m desperate to know how Flemeth is able to see the future. HOW?]
I could be wrong about all this, of course. But it just feels strange to me that Loghain goes from hero to villain without much explanation, and stranger still that he would turn on Maric’s son without reason. *shrug* I’d love to know what he was actually thinking... bioware, you listening?
