Oct 8, 2024
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The chances of AI becoming superintelligent or sentient in our lifetimes is incredibly incredibly small
Like, okay, yeah, "never say never," but as someone who spends a lot of time following AI news and tech, and also a lot of time working on psychology and brain science stuff, I promise you:
Ignore what Elon Musk and the tech bros are saying. They are wrong or actively lying to you. (Elon Musk is definitely doing the latter.)
AI is literally nowhere near becoming sentient. It might look like it is, but it's absolutely not.
And we're expected to run out of resources for AI data centers in the next three to five years due to the processing power required - the upgrade requirements for sentience or superintelligence cannot physically happen due to the sheer, unbelievable cost of the computing power needed for much smaller upgrades, let alone something as massive as sentience. (x; there are other sources but Google and other search engines suck now so I can't find them right now)
More on this cost/resources question rhere:
Soundtrack: Queens of the Stone Age - First It Giveth Before we go any further: This is, for the third time this year, the longest newslett
And more on the general premise of "it is vanishingly unlikely that we will see superintelligent or sentient AI within our lifetimes" here:
Our tendency to view machines as people and become attached to them points to real risks of psychological entanglement with AI technology.
There are a lot of things to be worried about, including the economic bullshit that is going to happen when the AI bubble crashes.
Superintelligent AI actually happening is not something you have to worry about happening in your lifetime.
And if that starts to change, we will see it coming well in advance. (On a resources and financial and tech level, not a level of "What people in tech and media say.")
Quite literally: Assume all tech company CEOs are literally just lying to you about what AI is capable of until directly proven otherwise. By independent outside sources, because fun fact, most big deal AI demos are literally just fake!
Currently, we are in the midst of an AI frenzy, akin to a bubble. Why do we believe that the AI bubble appears on the verge of popping? Find
From the Mechanical Turk to Elon Musk's remote-controlled robots, wily tech salesmen have often pulled the wool over our eyes.
Anyway here's a fun video of Facebook's AI fucking up profoundly to warm your heart:
A recipe for disaster, asking an AI to help with Korean steak sauce live on stage
got distracted by imagining bocchi undergoing feature space transformations during lecture
Here's how you make noai.duckduckgo.com your default search engine so you don't have to toggle the filter on every time you do a search:
1) Make sure your Firefox is up to date.
2a) Go to the website and right click in the search field and select 'Add Search Engine' and confirm with 'Add Engine':
OR!
2b) Go into Firefox's settings and under Search, scroll down until you find the option to manually add a search engine:
And the URL you'll want to enter is https://noai.duckduckgo.com/?t=h_&q=%s
3) Either way, you will now have to scroll to the top of your Search settings in Firefox and then change your Default Search Engine to the one you just added.
As for other browsers... I don't have a clue, fuck Chrome in particular.
May you never happen upon an ugly ass AI slop baby animal again.
31% of employees are actively ‘sabotaging’ AI efforts. Here’s why
"In a new study, almost a third of respondents said they are refusing to use their company’s AI tools and apps. A few factors could be at play."
AI hasn't improved in 18 months. It's likely that this is it. There is currently no evidence the capabilities of ChatGPT will ever improve. It's time for AI companies to put up or shut up.
I'm just re-iterating this excellent post from Ed Zitron, but it's not left my head since I read it and I want to share it. I'm also taking some talking points from Ed's other posts. So basically:
We keep hearing AI is going to get better and better, but these promises seem to be coming from a mix of companies engaging in wild speculation and lying.
Chatgpt, the industry leading large language model, has not materially improved in 18 months. For something that claims to be getting exponentially better, it sure is the same shit.
Hallucinations appear to be an inherent aspect of the technology. Since it's based on statistics and ai doesn't know anything, it can never know what is true. How could I possibly trust it to get any real work done if I can't rely on it's output? If I have to fact check everything it says I might as well do the work myself.
For "real" ai that does know what is true to exist, it would require us to discover new concepts in psychology, math, and computing, which open ai is not working on, and seemingly no other ai companies are either.
Open ai has already seemingly slurped up all the data from the open web already. Chatgpt 5 would take 5x more training data than chatgpt 4 to train. Where is this data coming from, exactly?
Since improvement appears to have ground to a halt, what if this is it? What if Chatgpt 4 is as good as LLMs can ever be? What use is it?
As Jim Covello, a leading semiconductor analyst at Goldman Sachs said (on page 10, and that's big finance so you know they only care about money): if tech companies are spending a trillion dollars to build up the infrastructure to support ai, what trillion dollar problem is it meant to solve? AI companies have a unique talent for burning venture capital and it's unclear if Open AI will be able to survive more than a few years unless everyone suddenly adopts it all at once. (Hey, didn't crypto and the metaverse also require spontaneous mass adoption to make sense?)
There is no problem that current ai is a solution to. Consumer tech is basically solved, normal people don't need more tech than a laptop and a smartphone. Big tech have run out of innovations, and they are desperately looking for the next thing to sell. It happened with the metaverse and it's happening again.
In summary:
Ai hasn't materially improved since the launch of Chatgpt4, which wasn't that big of an upgrade to 3.
There is currently no technological roadmap for ai to become better than it is. (As Jim Covello said on the Goldman Sachs report, the evolution of smartphones was openly planned years ahead of time.) The current problems are inherent to the current technology and nobody has indicated there is any way to solve them in the pipeline. We have likely reached the limits of what LLMs can do, and they still can't do much.
Don't believe AI companies when they say things are going to improve from where they are now before they provide evidence. It's time for the AI shills to put up, or shut up.
The real reason fantasy and sci fi book covers painted by human artists are superior to their AI-generated counterparts is that when the AI gets everything wrong it's almost always a trivial exercise to figure out what prompt it was given and how it free-associated its way to the result, but a human artist will hit you with an elaborately laid out black-velvet rendering of a scene which absolutely does not happen in the book, populated by people who in spite of their distinctive and wildly eccentric designs are not identifiable as any specific character, and the challenge of puzzling out what the fuck they thought they were painting is often more interesting than the actual book.