Listening to the books again, I wonder if it was North who presided over Max’s trial when she comes back from the dead? The judge is only described as someone who used to work at St Marys but now at the Time Police, and how prim and proper she is fits North to a T. Max hadn’t met her yet, and maybe when she did, had forgotten she’d already met a much much much older version of her.
Hot take: Leon Farrell 1.0 was a total asshole. The way he goes off on Max in book 1 after he finds out she lost the baby is unacceptable…period. I know he had his own trauma triggers with his previous family, but it was unforgivable for him to accuse Max of sleeping with the man who SAed her and tried to kill her. No real loss with Leon 1.0! 2.0 was a great upgrade
On July 9, 2021, Madeline Sue Maxwell arrived earlier than expected, at ~30 Weeks Along. Maddy Sue is the 3rd Child and 1st Daughter of John + Chelsy (Bontrager) Maxwell. (She joins 2 Brothers—Axton John, 2; and Elliot Rex, 1.) As of July 25, she remained in the NICU, and will possibly stay there until her original Due Date in September. (She is stable, though, so that’s great!)
Maddy’s Parents reported the birth first on Chelsy’s Blog, doing so on July 10, 2021 at ~6:30 PM. The Maxwells quickly followed suit on their blog at ~9 PM. Meanwhile, the Bontragers didn’t make a peep about it until July 19.
Didn’t expect to do this Post so soon, but... Read on for Maddy Sue’s impact on John + Chelsy’s Data, the Maxwell Data, and the Bontrager Data!
What Was Maddy’s Original Due Date?
Initially, John + Chelsy said that Madeline was due in “Late September.” After her birth, however, they’ve revised that to Mid–September. There are two big, helpful pieces of evidence, here... First, per Chelsy, Madeline was born “at 30 Weeks Along.” (See Also, the Maxwell Family Blog: “Madeline [was] ... about 10 Weeks Early.”) Taking this to mean Chelsy delivered at 30 Weeks, 0 Days—30 Weeks, 6 Days Along, we’ve got a Possible Due Date Range of September 11–17, 2021.
Second, in a July 21, 2021 Update, Chelsy said that Maddy was “not even 32 Weeks and breathing all on her own.” (Emphasis added.) Maddy would have been Exactly 32 Weeks Along on July 21 if her Due Date were September 15. Since she was <32 Weeks, her Due Due must’ve been on or after September 16, 2021.
Combining this info, we’re left with only 2 Possible Due Dates—September 16 or 17. Consistent with my typical practice, I’ll round up and use the later date (September 17, 2021) as Chelsy’s Approximate Due Date w/ Maddy.
Now that we’ve got that figured out, we can move on to the Timing Data...
Timing of…
Pregnancy Announcement
Chelsy + John announced Chelsy’s 3rd Pregnancy on Thursday, May 13, 2021, via Chelsy’s Blog. Based on an Approximate Due Date of September 17, 2021, Chelsy was ~153 Days Along (21 Weeks, 6 Days), at that point. Here’s how far along Chelsy was for all 3 Pregnancy Announcements—
w/ Axton 124 Days Along (Due Date—January 23, 2019)
w/ Elliot 111 Days Along (Due Date—June 15, 2020)
w/ Maddy ~153 Days Along
John + Chelsy’s Data. Prior to Madeline, it was ‘typical’ for Chelsy to go public at 118 Days Along. With Maddy, that shifts to 129 Days Along (+11 Days) (18 Weeks, 3 Days).
Bontrager Data. Before Maddy, a ‘typical’ Bontrager Couple would announce a pregnancy at 120 Days Along. Factoring Maddy in, it shifts to 123 Days Along (+3 Days) (17 Weeks, 4 Days).
Maxwell Data. Finally, pre–Madeline, your ‘typical’ Maxwell Couple announced a pregnancy at 86 Days Along. Now, with Maddy’s data, that shifts to 90 Days Along (+4 Days) (12 Weeks, 6 Days).
Sex / Name Reveal
John + Chelsy didn’t do a Sex or Name Reveal for Maddy, before birth. While it’s possible they wanted to do one, just didn’t get the chance due to her early arrival... Duggar Data doubts it. Chelsy was already ~30 Weeks Along, which would be pretty late for a Sex Reveal. Plus, Chelsy + John didn’t do a Sex or Name reveal for Axton or Elliot, either.
Among Bontragers, Sex / Name Reveals are simply not done. Marlin + Becky have 10 Grandchildren, so far, and there have been 0 Sex / Name Reveals.
Sex / Name Reveals are similarly rare among Maxwells. Thus far, Steve + Teri have 18 Grandchildren (+ Susannah Joy, RIP), with only 1 Sex Reveal. (It was for Andrew Maxwell–Maher, a Boy born after 4 Girls.)
Delivery vs. Due Date
Based on an Approximate Due Date of September 17, Madeline was 70 Days Early when she arrived prematurely on July 9, 2021. Here’s Chelsy’s Delivery vs. Due Date Data, thus far—
Axton 3 Days Late
Elliot 4 Days Late
Maddy 70 Days Early
Given Maddy Sue’s unexpected, unexplained early birth, Duggar Data intends to exclude her anomalous Delivery vs. Due Date Data from all data sets—i.e., Chelsy + John’s, the Bontragers’, and the Maxwells’. (If it is later determined that Chelsy is, for some reason, likely to deliver similarly early in the future, I’d include Maddy’s Delivery vs. Due Date in John + Chelsy’s Data, and continue excluding it from the Bontrager and Maxwell Overall Data.)
Since Maddy’s Data won’t count, there’s No Change to any of the data sets... Chelsy’s ‘typical’ Delivery vs. Due Date remains 4 Days Late. For the ‘typical’ Bontrager, it’s still 1 Day Late. And, the ‘typical’ Maxwell still delivers Exactly On–Time.
Birthweight + Length
As a Preemie, Maddy Sue was unsurprisingly “fragile and tiny.” She weighed only 3 Pounds, 7 Ounces, and measured 15 Inches Long. Here’s how Maddy stacked up against her full–term brothers—
Axton 7 Pounds, 5 Ounces; 20 Inches
Elliot 8 Pounds, 4 Ounces; 22 Inches
Maddy 3 Pounds, 7 Ounces; 15 Inches
Again, it doesn’t really make any sense to include Maddy’s data, here, so let’s move on...
Effect on Procreative Pace / ESOQ
Here’s where things get really interesting... At this point, we’re operating under the assumption that Madeline’s early arrival is just a one–time incident—i.e., an outlier. We’re assuming this because, as Chelsy said: “There is no explanation at this point as to why she ... arrive[d] early.” So... Assuming this isn’t going to recur, the Child Spacing from Elliot–to–Maddy is deceivingly short. We need to adjust it, to prevent this outlier from unreasonably skewing all of our data.
This isn’t the first time I’ve done this, either. When calculating a Child Spacing for Josie Brooklyn Duggar, the Predictor uses a Theoretical Birthdate based on Josie’s Due Date and Michelle’s Delivery vs. Due Date data. Basically, instead of using the actual, weirdly short Jordyn–to–Josie Spacing, the Predictor uses the spacing that would’ve been, but–for Josie bizarrely–early arrival. We’ll use the same method for Madeline.
So... Chelsy’s Approximate Due Date with Madeline was September 17, 2021, and it’s typical for her to deliver 4 Days Late. Doing the math, Maddy “should” have been born on September 21, 2021. We’ll count from Elliot’s Actual DOB (June 15, 2020) to Maddy’s Adjusted DOB to get the Adjusted Elliot–to–Maddy Spacing. It comes out to 459 Days. (Note that if we didn’t adjust the spacing, it would have been only 389 Days.)
Onward, to the analysis! Prior to Maddy, John + Chelsy’s Procreative Pace (or PP) was 510 Days; the Bontrager Overall PP was 664 Days; and the Maxwells’ Overall PP was 648 Days. Factoring in the Adjusted Elliot–to–Maddy Spacing, these all shift as follows—
John + Chelsy’s PP 485 Days (25 Days Faster)
Bontrager PP 649 Days (15 Days Faster)
Maxwell PP 638 Days (10 Days Faster)
As for ESOQ... John + Chelsy’s is now 10 Children. (If this seems low, don’t forget Chelsy is already 30 Years Old and the Bontrager Fertility Cut–Off is on the earlier side, at Age 39.90.)
When to Expect Maxwell–Bontrager #4
Here’s what the Predictor is forecasting for Maxwell–Bontrager #4—
Baby News June 5, 2022
Sex / Name Reveal At Birth
Due Date November 2, 2022
Birthdate November 6, 2022
Sending good thought to Maddy. Hope she continues improving in NICU and will one day leave this awful fertility cult.
Madeline Maxwell was born at 30 weeks, 6 days. Terri replied to a commenter named Cassie with this info.
Yeah, I saw that!
So, at first, I thought this would give us an Exact Due Date... But, the issue is... It's not consistent with what Chelsy herself has said about the Due Date. (Her comments rule out any Due Date before Sept. 16, but the Due Date Steve implies here is Sept. 11.) I've decided to go on what Chelsy said, since it's her baby, after all.
Thanks for pointing this out though! Very eagle–eyed of you.
