The end of the Viktor Orbán era may be in sight as a 45-year-old former ally called Péter Magyar opens up a big lead in polls.
Hungarians go to the polls on April 12th. Authoritarian Putin fanboy Viktor Orbán is hoping his Fidesz Party will get a new lease on power. But the opposition is more united than usual.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, the longest-serving leader in the European Union and an ideologue-in-chief for the far right, is on the ropes with polls projecting he will lose parliamentary elections on April 12 to a former insider turned rival. Orbán and his Fidesz party have been in power since 2010 and in the view of critics they’ve turned Hungary into a corrupt pro-Russian authoritarian state undermining the EU, NATO and democracy over these past 16 years. “There is an increasing enthusiasm in the belief that the authoritarian period will be over,” said András Bozóki, a Hungarian political scientist at the Central European University in Vienna. “Opinion polls give reason for such optimism.” For liberal-minded Brussels, Orbán is a cartoon villain with his defiant vetoes of support for Ukraine, dislike of the LGBTQ community and migrants, rants against “globalized liberal elites,” trips to visit Russian President Vladimir Putin and alliance with U.S. President Donald Trump.
Of course Trump endorsed Orbán. But the value of Trump's endorsements this year has declined even faster than his approval ratings. Trump endorsed the losing GOP candidate in a special election last Tuesday in his home legislative district Florida HD-87. Democrat Emily Gregory flipped the district and now represents Mar-a-Lago.
Back to Hungary...
Polls show Orbán is on track to lose to Péter Magyar, a 45-year-old former Fidesz insider who’s turned into a nimble and charismatic opposition leader. He’s spent months campaigning throughout Hungary and fine-tuning his message. He accuses Orbán of impoverishing Hungary by running a “mafia regime” that’s in the Kremlin’s pocket. Magyar is promising to steer Hungary away from Moscow’s sphere and back toward the EU and NATO. At the same time, he vows to investigate the Fidesz government and root out corruption. On many domestic issues, though, Magyar is conservative and widely seen as “Orbán-lite.” Magyar’s pitch is resonating: A survey released Wednesday by Median, a respected polling firm, found Tisza ahead by 23% among decided voters, by far the biggest lead yet. Pundits say Tisza could even win a two-thirds majority, key to undoing constitutional changes and laws passed by Fidesz.
Orbán's attempts to steal the election make Trump look like an amateur.
In recent days, a string of news reports, often citing unnamed intelligence officials, have painted a picture of Orbán’s government working hand-in-glove with Russia. On March 6, VSquare, a Hungarian investigative news outlet, reported that a team of Russian military intelligence agents was deployed to interfere in the election. A few days later, the Financial Times reported that a Kremlin-linked operation sought to flood Hungarian social media with messages to boost Orbán’s sagging popularity. Last Saturday, the Washington Post issued a report citing EU security officials who accused Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó of routinely providing Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov with details from top-level EU meetings. The newspaper quoted an official saying Szijjártó even called Lavrov during EU summits to provide “live reports” on internal discussions, effectively giving Moscow a “seat at the table.”
Orbán has been more successful at gerrymandering than Trump. So even though he is behind in the polls, he could still win a narrow victory. Orbán is pulling out all the stops to keep his corrupt mafia régime in office.
Despite the polls and momentum behind Magyar’s campaign, experts say the election may wind up being much closer than projected due to Fidesz’s gerrymandering and even possible vote rigging.
Of course the key to winning any election is voter turnout. If the opposition Tisza Party devotes its resources to getting potential supporters physically to the polls, it can overcome Orbán's corrupt advantage.
EDIT: Trump is sending JD Vance to Hungary ahead of the April 12th election. Perhaps MAGA feels that JD's ebullient charisma will sway voters there to stick with Orbán.
Vance due to visit Hungary on April 7-8 ahead of key election, say sources