It's not done yet, but it's pretty close. I've got a new Knight of Cups (from the Fat Folks Tarot) coming my way soonish.
I tried to follow a few rules - no cards from the same deck within each suit - at least one of every card - keep the interpretation and meaning in mind.
Some cards I haven't found the right deck for. The 9 of Pentacles has been a struggle for me.
The 5th suit (Suit of Beasts) was loosely inspired by the Alleyman Tarot's 5th suit. Its more focused on the boundaries between humanity and animal nature. I broke the rules for the 2 of Honey and 5 of Dreams. Rules are fake anyway tho.
The major arcana is in *a state* at the moment. Quite a few placeholder cards (still looking for The Tower from The Tarot Restless), lots of doubling up of decks (don't make me choose between Dante's Inferno Judgement and Moby Dick Devil, I can't do it - The Literary Tarot is too on point), and I'm still missing a good VII Justice/Adjustment.
Yep. That's my girl. The art is pretty and the shuffling is therapeutic.
I really haven't talked much about my tarot journey on here, but over the past few months, I've been slowly building a magpie deck. There are still some cards I'm hoping to eventually swap out for others I resonate with more, but it's officially usable for readings. I'm proud of it and the connection we're building. I wanted to share.
It's a collection of (probably, I haven't checked) public domain images that at some point I'm going to print out and glue onto tarot card backs!
There's this concept of a magpie deck (sometimes called a trash tarot, the first one I saw with this concept was The Alleyman's Tarot) that's cards made up out of either things that weren't designed to be tarot cards or a bunch of different cards from different decks that I absolutely love. It's a really good way to learn how to read them too, you figure out what the meanings are and you find a bit of art (or the side of a box, or some junk mail, or an old postcard) that you cut down to size and paste on the front of a tarot card!
My current deck has something like 280 cards, but it's far too much fun to just stop collecting, so I'm looking into just. Getting more card storage. I want to have different decks for different purposes in with my giant general purpose one.
I finally read Tarot Interactions by Deborah Lipp, and she notes that the distribution of cards in a spread can also give insight into the reading. She notes that when the distribution is uneven, that counts as “another card” in the spread.
She really doesn’t go into the math, but provides a chart or two showing “normal” distributions of cards. She states that when the cards in a spread are outside those distributions, that means something. I think that’s cool and insightful. It also reminds me of this meme.
Half a meme. Original from https://jakelikesonions.com/
I am a “show your work” kind of guy. First, people get it wrong, especially with probability, and it’s nice to see where they (or I) go wrong. Second, when we look at the numbers, we get to decide what is worth interpreting and what should be left unsaid. This allows us to tailor how we read our cards.
To figure out the odds of drawing a sword or a Major Arcana, my process is to
Figure out the total combination of cards you can get with the number of pulls you decide on
Figure out the number of “successes” for the set conditions. (e.g., pulling two or more Swords on a three-card spread)
One caveat for this math, order doesn’t matter; pulling the Ace of Swords, Two of Pentacles, and Strength, or Strength, Ace of Swords, and Two of Pentacles counts as the same combination, even though they would have distinct readings. We only care about the distribution of cards, not the order.
Let’s do a standard 3-card pull.
The number of unique card combinations.
When you pull 3 cards from a tarot deck, the odds of each pull change because the deck isn’t replenished between pulls. When you pull the first card, you have 78 cards to choose from, then the second card is 77, and finally, the third card is 76.
If you multiply all of these together, you get 456,456 unique combinations, but this considers the order of the cards. Since order doesn’t matter to us, you have to divide that number by a factorial of the number of cards pulled: 3*2*1 or 6. Dividing 456,456 by 6 gets you 76,076.
How many of a certain type?
What are the odds of pulling at least 2 swords in a three-card pull? We already have the number of unique combinations in a standard tarot deck. We can use the same method above to calculate successes.
First, we have to determine the odds of pulling exactly two swords. There are 14 cards in a suit, so the odds of pulling two cards in a suit are (14*13)/(2*1) = 91, and then we have to toss in the last card not from that suit, which is (78-14) 64/1. Thus, the total number of combinations is 91*64 = 5,824. If we divided this by the unique combinations above, it would tell us the odds of pulling exactly two swords in a 3-card pull. Which is 7.66%
But we want to know the odds of getting two or more cards, so we have to do some more math: specifically, what are the odds of getting 3 swords? The math for that is (14*13*12)/(3*2*1) or 2,814/6 or 364.
So we add the two amounts from above (5,824+364) to get 6,188. We divide that by the total number of combinations (76,076), or about 8.13%. It’s your choice to consider that “significant”. I do. It's about the same odds as rolling an 11 or 12 on two six-sided dice.
From my magpie deck, this had a 1.62% chance to appear. The Ace of Swords by Ayolland, the Kanve of Knives by Cat Rocketship, and the Five of Swords by Micah Ulrich.
What about Major Arcana?
For getting at least two Major Arcana, the process is similar, except there are 22 cards as opposed to 14. The Math is (22*21)/(2*1) = 231, for the possible Major Arcana cards you could pull, then you have to add a minor arcana you can pull as well, which is 56/1 or 56. So the total number of combinations is 231*56 or 12,936.
We also need to determine the total possible combinations of the 3 Major Arcana. The equation for that is (22*21*20)/(3*2*1) or 9,240/6 or 1,540.
If we add the combinations from the two scenarios above, we get 12,936 + 1,540 = 14,476. We divide that by the total combinations above (76,076), and you get ~19%. Less impressive.
Specific vs. General: Pulling it all together
If you consider the 8% chance for a particular suit to have two cards in a three-card spread significant and worthy of interpretation, it is going to happen more frequently than you think. Since there are 4 suits, the odds that at least two cards in a three-card spread are of the same suit are (8% x 4), or 32%.
In short, about a third of the time, a three-card spread’s suit distribution is going to have something to say. A lot of probability works this way. For something specific, like “two swords in a three-card spread,” you have a low probability, but for a general “two cards of the same suit in a three-card spread,” it’s much higher. In my experience, that is a hard connection to make. In the same vein, it takes a smaller population to find two people with the same birthday than to find someone with your birthday.
Why go through all this math?
Well, I am a giant nerd. Part of this is me learning how to calculate those odds, plus you can double-check everyone else’s calculations, which can be wrong. Also, I don’t have a standard tarot deck; my deck is a magpie/patchwork deck with 120 cards. It has 80 minor arcana (with 20 per suit) and 40 Major Arcana cards. Thus, I have to calculate the odds specific to my deck.
Calculations with a 120-card deck
For a standard three-card pull, there are (120*119*118)/(1*2*3), or 280,840 combinations.
To determine how many possible successes there are, you can follow the process above with the standard tarot deck and just substitute my deck’s numbers. For my deck, there are 20 cards in each minor arcana suit. Two successes in a three-card spread is (20*19)/(1*2) or 380/2 or 190. Then the final non-suit card is 100/1. Multiply those results to get 19,000 as the possible totals.
Then the results of pulling all three cards in the same suit: (20*19*18)/(1*2*3) or 6840/6 or 1140.
You add the total number of successes above (19,000+1,140 = 20,140) and then divide by the total number of combinations, 280,840. The result is 7.17% or about the same. See the table below for percentages.
#Core-The-Hierophant-Reversed: The rejection of inconvenient truths, of looking upon another and irrationally deciding they cannot possibly know more than you. You don’t have to hand it to them, but broken clocks are right twice a day, and sometimes the worst people you know can occasionally have a good idea.
#Woe-Caterpillar: You don’t want to do this, it’s alright, it’s fine, you are happy just where and when you are. But the world doesn’t care about such things. Times are changing, slowly accumulating momentum until the changes will be more sudden and drastic with no end in sight. There is no safety in returning to normal, soon it simply won’t be viable. We must change and evolve, and you know deep down how to do this.
#Weal-Reverse-Knight-of-Swords: Things and situations are passing us by so quickly that it seems there is never any chance to capitalize on it. But simply standing still and waiting will get you nowhere, we know not what comes, only that lately a lot more of it is coming. Learn to go with the flow, roll with the punches, become a bit more flexible in thinking and reaction, and the next time opportunity dashes by, leap and make a grab for it, if you fail, well each time is a bit of practice for the next.
#Within-The-Drowned-King: No one is an island, the waves of life will drag us down and dash us against the rocks if we face them alone. Despite what fools may tell you in full ignorant confidence, humanity did not become what it has from “a few hard men” It came about through Community, through togetherness. There is no nobility in solitude in suffering, reach out, and accept the hands that present themselves, so when they or others need a hand, you will be there to pick them up.
#Without-10-The-Wheel-of-Fortune: Chaos pure and simple, that is what life currently is trending towards. It’s all starting to creak at the axles, making all sorts of concerning sounds. There are those who could do something about it, who might be able to fix it as opposed to spending more and more time and resources as opposed to doing the smarter cheaper thing of replacing it. But let’s be honest with ourselves, are they going to if they aren’t forced to? Buckle up, it’s going to get significantly more bumpy till they have no choice but stop.
It’s all gonna change, we have no choice in this, not anymore, all we can do is band together and build something better. When disaster strikes our stories tell us we will devolve, that we will shatter, but if you look at our history, at our reality, it is the opposite. When catastrophe passes by, we unite, we help each other, and if we do not bend to the whims of the powerful few, we build things better than they were.
#Within-Last-Judgement: A turning point, a catalyst for great and wondrous change. There is a chance here, to become more, to strip yourself of that which you despise, if only you can grasp it.
#Woe-Nine-of-Swords: It will neither be quick nor pleasant. It takes time for this change, it takes facing and acknowledging those faults and failures, and acknowledging those outcomes, those that we can do nothing to change. We must approach and deal with each, one at a time, slowly and surely.
#Weal-Youre-So-Fucking-Fucked: As it says on the tin, this won’t be fun, but it will be worth it.
#Within-Reverse-II-of-Swords: It’s time to move forward, it’s time to address all those things you placed elsewhere for “when you have the time”. Well that time is now, so get to it.
#Without-Reverse-Ace-of-Swords: So much misinformation, so much to mistrust. You must make certain your decisions and choices are made with truth and accuracy. This is not the time to bend to mere popular opinion and what we were told is obvious truth and long held wisdom. Don’t fully disregard them, but do confirm them.
It’s time to change, to actually try and become a better person. All those ideas and plans you have to be more fit, more kind, more etcetera, etcetera. Well the time to do them is now, seek out the ways to do them, double check they are in fact accurate and helpful, then get to it.
Core-The-Spring-Knight-I: There is a chance, an opportunity oncoming, but be wary, it might not be as easy as it seems. It could be a trap, too good to be true, but even if it is, is the reward worth it? Is this risk justified? All you can do is either not play, or tell those dice.
Woe-Reverse-Knight-of-Comets: A period of turmoil and intense emotions approach. These feeling are not necessarily false, but are greatly intensified by outside forces and factors. Do not let yourself be swept away by them, keep your head on straight, and a firm grasp on reality, you’ll need it.
Weal-King-of-Cups: Be kind, but firm, when you have the ability, give and help but do not be afraid or hesitant to establish boundaries. In these tumultuous times many people will flock to such a rock simply for being steady. Be that rock when you can, and when the going gets tough for you, those around will reciprocate.
Within-The-Floppy-Key: Are you going about things in the right way? Is this truly the path for you? Sometimes we get lost, sometimes we fixate so thoroughly on a destination that we try to fit a square peg into a round hole no matter how futile. Look at your path, your destination and ask yourself if you might need a change. Sometimes we need to give up on the goals of our past, to reach the most gratifying future for our present.
Without-The-Fourth-of-Spring: A normal day, a brisk walk, not to hot, nor to cold, or even overly strenuous. The world without will simply turn, no dire portents or obstacles. Simply continue as you were, and focus on what is within yourself and your immediate surroundings.
Change is in the air, personal and possibly tremendously emotionally charged. Ask yourself is this even a thing you want to engage with, something that you wish to confront? if so now is the time, while the world without enters a lull, and you will have time to work on yourself if this is in fact the path you choose.
Axis-Mundi: There is a connection, deep and base between the physical and spiritual. One must not let either degrade to much, lest both be lost. Take stock of yourself, spiritually and physically, do what you need to strengthen and bring in balance the weaker.
