clean girl has actually not declined yet my last post was wrong but that's besides the point
So if you saw my last post, I posted “clean girl is over” and thought I was just spiteful because I look terrible in a slickback.
But I did a lot of research since then.
So I just wanted to share what I found since I promised to update you guys.
You guys gave me more trends to test, so I expanded to these aesthetics:
I basically tried to measure waste from aesthetic trends without directly tracking landfill data (which is almost impossible to get in real time).
I measured this as % of listings under $15
Because in resale, under $15 = near-discard tier
This is just total resale listings
More listings = more material committed to the trend
Cottagecore is insane here btw (356K listings)
3. Supply-demand mismatch timing
Basically a trend peaks, demand falls, but supply doesn’t
The longer prices stay low after the peak, the more likely that stuff never gets used again
Then I combined all three into one number:
– how long the oversupply lingers (0.2)
And the ranking is kind of brutal:
Which leads into the second thing I measured:
How long until a trend loses half its attention?
Average across everything: ~2 years
But here’s a pattern I’m noticing:
Older trends (2020-2021):
This shows trend decay is accelerating.
And when you line that up with resale data, you get this pattern:
Which explains why prices all cluster around like $11-$13
Everyone is undercutting each other because there’s too much supply
Different types of trends behave differently though:
Microtrends (office siren, acubi)
Slower cultural trends (cottagecore, tumblr grunge)
still wasteful, but less abrupt
Revival trends (Y2K, dark academia)
actually less waste because demand keeps coming back
This is basically a market failure. platforms and influencers generate demand while holding zero risk, brands produce fast and sell volume while offloading excess, and consumers and resellers are the ones stuck with depreciation, while the environment absorbs whatever is left.
The system overproduces by design because the decision-makers don’t bear the downside, which is what creates a negative externality. And it’s getting worse as everything speeds up. Trends move faster, production reacts instantly, economic life gets shorter, and waste per trend increases.
Resale markets don’t actually solve this; they just delay disposal while prices collapse. So trends aren’t just cultural cycles anymore; they’re compressed economic cycles, where value is extracted quickly at the top and waste is pushed downstream just as fast.
So I tested some other trends from Italy and South Korea. So far, they show me similar patterns, but I need more South Korean trends to really test my study. Five South Korean trends in total were used:
if you know of any more, please tell me bc i really am invested in this project.
also, sorry if any of this was unclear or anything; i’m writing this kinda late and my brain is fried. if you have any further questions feel free to message me and ask! if you want you guys can look more at my notes: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1DS2rFtq7b8t9jRk-l74gw8Ozb8qbaW34?usp=sharing they’re not finished but they give you more of an explanation than this post probably will lol.
anyway i hope you guys have a great day.