Now that the LNA has been bolstered by Russian mercenary power, things are moving very quickly in Libya. It is now likely for a Greek, Egypt and Russian backed Libyan National Army to face a Turkish intervention on behalf of the failing United Nations and western established Government of National Accord in Tripoli.
>Ok what the fuck does any of this mean, I havent been here long and i only care to smack deh belly and like paper
In 2012, the first election was held in post-gaddafi’s Libya. The General National Congress, or the transitional government, held until 2014. Unsurprisingly, secular and islamist militias began to resent eachother and in some cases, intimidate people from going to the polls. Kidnappings and militia violence became particularly bad in North East Libya, where the LNA would eventually begin it’s war against them and the GNC, because the GNC was turning a blind eye to it (tho likely from the failure of the traditional democracy to produce.. well, any results because more repressive, Islamist laws).
Even more unsurprisingly, the youth and pro-democracy camp were disillusioned and upset to find that no one held their election promises and that some areas like the city of Derna failed to even hold a vote because of the outbreak of Islamist rebellion there and in parts of Benghazi. Only 18% of the people came out to vote that year in August. Subsequently, Islamists and the Islamic Brotherhood lost even more of their share of the Congress, so Misrata based Islamist militias abducted political opponents, raided hundreds of homes and then seized the Tripoli based General National Congress in a coup because they refused to be a minority in the now majority Nationalist and Liberal legislature.
Once Tripoli became dangerous, the new parliament formed without the Islamist factions in Tobruk called the “House of Representatives”, essentially producing a west and eastern Libyan Government. The House of Representatives, to distinguish it apart from the GNC or post-coup Islamist National Salvation Government, is sometimes called the “Tobruk Government”. Later in 2014, the Libyan Supreme Constitutional Court declared the HoR as been unconstitutional and to be dissolved, which the HoR shot back with saying that the Supreme Court was being forced to declare that “at gunpoint” by the Islamist militias.
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Part of the reason why the unified 2012-2014 GNC failed is because the largely independent assembly and it’s Islamist minority factions were constantly in gridlock over efforts by the Islamists and the leader of the assembly (an elected Islamist) to ram constitutional amendments like Sharia Law, gender segregation and mandatory hijabs; and ban Gaddafi loyalists and government officials from holding office, which was popular with the people. The one about banning participants of the Gaddafi regime from office was a doozy, because many of the Liberal party leaders, elite expatriates were part of the Gaddafi government. Many of these Liberals and elites were right to say that this law, while popular, was foolish because it preempted anyone with technocratic experience from office in a new, unstable democracy. The Islamists loved it because, like any political body, they saw how it would enlarge their share of power.
Finally, the GNC tried to do away with elections also by failing to run an election by unilaterally voting in 2013 to add another year to it’s mandate. This was when a former 2011 commander of the Gaddafi revolution, General Khalifa Haftar of the Libyan National Army called on the GNC to follow through with the elections. The GNC ignored him. So he launched “Operation Dignity” on behalf of the House of Representatives to immediately bring the nationalist, secular (liberal and moderate salafi) army into war with the rebellious Islamist militias and eventually ISIS, which by 2015, established territory in north east Libya alongside the creation of the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. A week after the beginning of Operation Dignity, that’s when the GNC called the elections, which the Islamists lost by August 2014.
So the Second Libyan Civil war began, and so I don’t end up writing a shitzillion paragraphs on the decisive multi-year battle of Benghazi (Ansar al-Sharia established a revolt here aka the dudes who killed that american that media used to gloss over Obama’s war crimes and the folly of turning Libya into a failed state) and the LNA’s capture of most of the oil fields and then territory of Libya, I’ll just defer to this video:
After a year of conflict (including ISIS), in December 2015, the United Nations intervened and the Libyan Political Agreement occurred, which brought the GNC and the HoR together into a new transitional government: The Government of National Accord. This government would hold for two years and then produce another election.
Over the next two years, power would slowly and with resistance from the GNC and the HoR, transfer to the Government of National Accord or the GNA while the GNA took down the Sirte ISIS territory. The HoR was to become an advisory and legislative body to be subject to the elected body of the new GNC. Even though (and maybe people on different sides opposed this) the GNA offered Haftar leadership of the legitimate, unified Libyan army if he switched allegiance from the HoR to the GNC, when the two years rolled over and no election was planned by December 2017, Haftar declared the Libyan Political Agreement void and resumed his assault on the GNC and now the GNA by defacto.
For the next year and some months, Haftar completed his operation against Islamist and ISIS pockets and captured the rest of Libya’s vast oil fields, allowing him to commit to a total onslaught of GNA/GNC territory in northwest Libya by April 2019. At this time, he was joined by russian and gulf arab state support like Egypt (clandestine arming ops) and the United Arab Emirates (drone strikes and scouting).
It is confirmed that the Russian PMC Wagner Group (same dudes obliterated by US gunships in an assault on syria’s Conoco gas plant near Deir Ezzor) are on the front line with LNA troops outside Tripoli.
Why are autocratic gulf states supporting Haftar? Well, because Egypt’s el-Sisi is himself a military man put in power by the army because their recent democractic project was threatened by islamists and the Muslim Brotherhood. Like Haftar, el-Sisi sees it as necessary to be a strong man to protect secular interests of the whole country because the liberal and secular factions are too easily outpaced and outfunded by the Islamist factions.
However, Haftar represents a secular and liberal legislative body. Unfortunately, at the end of the day, when Haftar seizes total victory, who’s to say he won’t just assume power like any other MENA military coup d’etat before him.
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An important fact about Libya is that the coast is where most of the population is, that it is Arab (78% of the total pop), and that inland, like Gaddafi before, the leaders of any central government has to balance Berber/Amazigh and Toureg tribal alliances, which the LNA excels at.
But beyond that, there are other ethnic divides. Earlier, I mentioned the Islamists of Misrata exacting violent influence over the GNC and the government in Tripoli. Misrate was a city founded by Circasians from Egypt. Misrata, itself, is a name that is derived from “Misir Atah” or “The ones who came from Misr(Egypt)”
Contemporary Misrata is now the 3rd largest city of Libya (after Tripoli and Benghazi) and two thirds of it’s 400,000 population are ethnic Turks. For this reason, it’s consider the centre of Turkish culture in Libya.
Now here’s an excerpt from a former Gaddafi loyalist/officer from the New York Times:
So, the idea of “Islamists from Misrata manipulating power balances in the Tripoli governments” takes on a deeper meaning with ethnic, not just religious contexts (remember, there are salafists in Haftar’s army, but they are ARAB Islamists)
What’s more, with Haftar and the LNA’s recent offensive with Russian backing now threatening the Tripoli power base, suddenly it starts to look like ethnic Turks are under threat of annihilation by an Arab warlord.
So now....
In the last week, Turkey signed a deal with the GNA (Government of National Accord) to be given resource access rights off the north east coast. Now there are rumblings that, besides logistics and munition support they already give to the GNC/GNA, that the Turkish army will intervene and prevent the collapse of the pseudo-turkish power bloc in the north west. Last June, Erdogan threatened Haftar after six ethnic turks were arrested.
It is not beneath Erdogan to continue his neo-Ottoman sphere of influence project into Libya.
So we should be keen to anticipate such a turn of events in Libya. Especially now, since the Turkish intervention in Syria has ground to a halt with the Kurds allying themselves with the SAA.
And of course, all of this is complicated by the fact that Haftar and the LNA’s response has been to ally itself with the state of Greece. HoR and LNA officials have been to Greece to discuss matters already. This folds over quite nicely with a rise in violations of Greek air and naval space by Turkey.
Anyway, this took hours to write
i started at liek 9 adn now it’s 1.....
I hoipe yall are satisfied
Body of the first article:
Libyan Foreign Minister Mohamed Taher Siala warned of the possibility that retired Major General Khalifa Haftar could enter Tripoli, especially after the recent Russian intervention in Libya.
Siala explained during a press interview that the ongoing escalation in Libya is due to Russian mercenaries’ support to Khalifa Haftar in bombing Tripoli by various means, noting that this matter will lead to civilian casualties and the displacement of thousands of migrants to European shores.
“I live in Tripoli and many believe that it cannot be taken over. However, chaos can worsen the city’s situation, so the public in the city are now asking: Why isn’t the international community that worked to protect civilians in 2011 doing the same now?” added the Foreign Minister.
He indicated that what the Russians say about their support for UN initiatives cannot be taken for granted because the problem lies in Russian prevarication, as Moscow declares a matter and does a completely different matter.
“I think Libya has strategic importance for Russia. They want to tighten their grip on our lands, and perhaps they are working on a strategy that cannot be currently implemented, and that is why their tactics are currently considering the use of mercenaries only,” continued Siala.
For his part, UN Special Envoy to Libya Ghassan Salamé said that “Russian support” for the forces of retired Major General Khalifa Haftar has intensified his attack on Tripoli during the past few days, warning that this may cause a “bloodbath” in the Libyan capital.
Salamé explained that the Russian military forces, who are called “mercenaries or young contractors”, have contributed to changing the strategic balance, pointing out that “since the Russians joined Haftar’s forces, the attack on Tripoli has regained its power.”
“In the last ten days, the war has moved to the urban district of the capital. I do not rule out the possibility of a new deadlock or overwhelming progress,” continued Salamé, stressing that “if this continues, there will be more civilian casualties, more displaced people, and more suffering.”
Salamé did not rule out that the sudden entry of Haftar’s forces to Tripoli would hinder efforts of the preparation for the Berlin International Conference on Libya.
He added that “there will be a bloodbath, a terrible situation of street fighting and indescribable massacres and destruction in the heart of urban areas. It is, therefore, necessary to accelerate things up. The method of dialogue must immediately impose itself to stop the war.”
“In these hours, the fighting has intensified with a number of airstrikes on the Libyan capital. Haftar is advancing,” indicated Salamé.
