ST. LOUIS • Last week, the arm of the Republican Party charged with maintaining a majority in Congress targeted U.S. Rep. Russ Carnahan with a round of robocalls to his constituents.
The calls, as the blog PoliticsMO puts it, were programmed to do something that Carnahan is not — run in his Third Congressional district.
That district, of course, was eliminated this spring when Republican lawmakers in Jefferson City redrew the state's Congressional map.
Since then, Carnahan has indulged in a Summer of Indecision, raising tens of thousands of dollars for a campaign without a destination.
Carnahan has insisted he wants to stay on Capitol Hill, but has been coy about whether he will (A) challenge fellow St. Louis Democratic Congressman Lacy Clay in a primary or (B) take his chances in the newly configured district next door.
Republicans clearly think he will take option B, hence the automated calls from the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Carnahan has also apparently commissioned his own poll that found he would be competitive with either of the two Republicans vying for their party's nomination, former ambassador Ann Wagner or Ed Martin, Carnahan's 2010 opponent.
The district has been held for a decade by Wildwood Republican Todd Akin, but has been redrawn in a way — less St. Charles County, more St. Louis County —that could benefit a Democrat.
But is Carnahan that Democrat?
Carnahan, whose home is in Compton Heights, does not currently live in the district. Though the law requires candidate's to live only in the state they represent, not the actual district, it is still a liability to not be able to vote for yourself. (That concern may be nullified if Martin, who also does not live in the district, is the GOP's nominee.)
Last year, Carnahan ran the toughest re-election fight of his career staving off Martin. He would need to summon all that energy and then some to win in a new district.
On paper, Carnahan may have an easier time in 2012 challenging Clay for the lone Congressional seat representing the city of St. Louis, though the collateral damage — racial divisiveness, bad blood within the party —would be substantial.
In the end, Carnahan may conclude the best opportunity for success — if not necessarily victory — would be to take on the winner of the Wagner/Martin duel.
Carnahan's family has already established roots in the D.C. area, and his post-Congressional employment prospects in the Beltway may be better if he's seen as someone who took one for the team, rather than in an acrimonious primary.
And that's a worst case scenario — if things go his way, he could still be called Congressman.
h/t: Jake Wagman at St. Louis Post-Dispatch.