#nh-gov

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Rasmussen: "No Clear Favorite" in N.H. Gov. Race

A head-to-head gubernatorial survey from Rasmussen Reports has Republicans Ovide Lamontagne and Kevin Smith virtually tied with Democrat Jackie Cilley and only slightly ahead of Maggie Hassan. It's early -- 20% to 25% of likely Granite State voters are undecided or prefer other candidates.

Huffington Post has the topline results, which are only available to Rasmussen subscribers:

41% Lamontagne (R), 39% Cilley (D) 42% Lamontagne (R), 36% Hassan (D)

39% Cilley (D), 37% Smith (R)  39% Smith (R), 36% Hassan (D)

The survey of 500 likely voters was conducted on June 20, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports and has a margin of error of +/- 4.5 points.

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Twitter Showdown: Kevin Smith vs. Ovide Lamontagne

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WMUR Granite State Poll: Dems Lead N.H. Gov Race

The two major Democratic gubernatorial candidates are leading both Republican opponents in head-to-head match-ups. Today's WMUR Granite State Poll indicates, though, that all four candidates are relatively unknown and large numbers of voters have yet to decide.

Democrat Maggie Hassand leads Ovide Lamontagne among likely voters by 34%-29% margin with 36% undecided and bests Kevin Smith 29%-24% with 46% undecided. Fellow Democrat Jackie Cilley edges Lamontagne 31%-30% with 38% undecided and leads Smith 30%-23% with 47% undecided.

Andrew Smith, Director of the UNH Survey Center reviews the numbers and concludes, "These candidates are not even very well-known among their own party." Hassan, Cilley and Smith are unknown to more than 80% of New Hampshire voters. Voters are only slightly more familiar with Lamontagne who is unknown to 54% of voters.

Hassan and Cilley are equally well-known, and well-liked, by Democratic voters. Hassan has a +18% net favorability rating among registered Democrats (20% favorable, 2% unfavorable). Cilley's favorability rating among Democrats is an almost identical +17% (20% favorable, 3% unfavorable).

Lamontagne has a name recognition advantage over Smith in their battle for the GOP nomination. 39% of registered Republicans have a favorable opinion of Lamontagne compared to 8% who have an unfavorable opinion. Smith is much less well-known, with 9% of Republicans saying they like him and 5% saying they don't.

The Granite State Poll is sponsored by WMUR-TV and conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The results are based on telephone interviews of 538 adults with a margin of error of +/- 4.2% and a subsample of 486 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.4%. The survey was conducted on April 9-20, 2012 on landline and cellular telephones.

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GOP Gov. Candidate Kevin Smith: Anti-Gay Lobbyist

Tuesday, GOP gubernatorial candidate Kevin Smith registered with the New Hampshire Secretary of State as a lobbyist with the National Organization for Marriage (NOM).

NOM, believed to be largely funded by the Mormon and Catholic churches, works to oppose the legalization of civil unions and same-sex marriage and to prohibit same-sex couples from adopting children. The organization was labeled "anti-gay" by the Southern Poverty Law Center for propagating "demonizing propaganda" based on "known falsehoods" and "repeated, groundless name-calling."

Just two weeks ago, John DiStaso quoted Smith saying "repeal of the state's same-sex marriage law will not be among his priorities."

Smith said his lobbying role on the key social issue “is not inconsistent at all” with his campaign focus on jobs and the economy.

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Wargaming the N.H. GOP Gubernatorial Primary Battle

The Washington Post's Rachel Weiner gazes into her crystal ball to project the outcome of a three-way primary battle for the GOP gubernatorial nomination featuring Ovide Lamontagne, Kevin Smith and Ted Gatsas.

The most obvious scenario: Smith will pull tea party votes away from Lamontagne, leaving Gatsas as the nominee. Both Lamontagne and Smith have ties to grassroots conservatives in the state. Gatsas, a relative moderate in the field, would pick up all the non-conservative votes — probably enough to win a three-way primary — while his opponents compete over who has the most tea party credibility.

Another, less likely scenario: Gatsas and Lamontagne split support in their shared home base of Manchester, get into an ugly primary battle and give Smith at least a chance at the nomination.

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Quote of the Day: Unraveling the Social Compact

They are really unraveling every bit of the social compact that we have come, not only to count on, but have come to believe is the right thing for us to be doing. So the ladder that many of us worked our way up into the middle class, every rung of that ladder is being broken. ...

So he wants to take us backwards and let everybody be on their own. What I want to do, what Democrats have always done, is say that we're stronger and better together and we can move forward that way.

-- Maggie Hassan, Democratic gubernatorial candidate on House Speaker Bill O'Brien and the New Hampshire legislature.

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Politico: N.H. Most Competitive Gov. Race in Nation

Politico today named the New Hampshire gubernatorial race as the most competitive race in the nation for the 2011-2012 cycle.

Gov. John Lynch’s long-anticipated decision to pass on a fifth term ensures the Granite State will offer junkies downballot intrigue long after this winter’s presidential primary.

National Democrats, who will have to invest in the state to keep it in their column, are crossing their fingers for a raucous Republican primary.

The article mentions Ovide Lamontagne ("two-time loser”), Kevin Smith ("'fresh blood' alternative") and John Stephen ("newer to the scene than Lamontagne but better known than Smith") as Republican front runners. Democrats Maggie Hassan, Jackie Cilley and Steve Marchand are described as "testing the waters."

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St. Hilaire's Political Calculations Behind PPNNE Vote

Did Executive Councilor Dan St. Hilaire sacrifice the health of 16,000 New Hampshire residents for personal political ambition? Tony Schinella reports on the political calculations behind St. Hilaire's vote to reject the Planned Parenthood contract to provide health care services in the state. 

The political rumor mill began spinning about a St. Hilaire gubernatorial run in 2012 not long after he voted to defund Planned Parenthood in June of this year. Up until that vote, he was not considered a serious potential statewide candidate since he drew a lot of his support from liberal-to-moderate Republicans and might not survive a primary, where voters tend to be more conservative. ...

Earlier this year, some conservative leaders wondered openly about the swerve to the right with the defund vote, thinking that St. Hilaire might be considering a potential bid for governor in 2012.

In an interview with the Concord Monitor, St. Hilaire confirmed he is considering a gubernatorial run.

"I'm at the stage of deciding whether I should be jumping into the race or not," St. Hilaire said.