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Mid-Cambridge #swingleft House Party - planning some fun visits to #NH02 New Hampshire

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2nd District fundraising report: A Kuster blowout

(Photo: Eliza Kern/CC BY 2.0)

There’s not much of a contest in the 2nd District to see who can build the biggest campaign war chest. Incumbent Ann Kuster, who is living up to her reputation for being a prodigious fundraiser, has raised over $2.4 million for the election cycle and reported having over $1.9 million on hand at the end of June.

Contrast that with her Republican challengers.

Former House Majority Leader Jack Flanagan, who formally entered the race in mid-March, reported having raised just $30,591, which included a $10,000 personal loan, and had $18,669 on hand at the end of June.

His Republican opponent, former state Rep. Jim Lawrence, put up similar numbers in his first reporting period. Lawrence reported raising $31,367, which included $6,000 in personal loans. He ended June with $20,056 on hand.

A third Republican, state Rep. Eric Estevez (who has been in the news recently), has not filed any reports with the Federal Election Commission and presumably has not met the FEC’s $5,000 threshold for contributions or expenditures.

Kuster ‘plunged into the fund-raising fray with gusto’

In early 2013, two months after Kuster first took the oath of office, Boston Globe reported congressional newcomers had been told to reserve two hours a day for committee hearings, floor votes and constituent meetings but to “devote at least four hours each day to the tedious task of raising money — so-called ­dialing for dollars.”

Kuster, reporter Tracy Jan noted, “plunged into the fund-raising fray with gusto.”

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Campaign hijinks: Congressional candidate photoshopped endorsement photo

2nd District congressional candidate Eric Estevez announced the endorsements of fellow House Reps. Bob Elliott (R-Salem) and John Manning (R-Salem) by blasting social media with a picture of the trio standing together in front of the State House.

The photo appears to have been taken during an Estevez campaign rally. The three men are festooned with Estevez for Congress lapel stickers. Estevez campaign signs fill the background and adorn the lectern.

It didn’t happen. Not that way.

The campaign paraphernalia was all photoshopped into a photo Estevez originally posted on Facebook in May. And it’s not the first time Estevez has played fast and loose with his campaign materials.

In 2006, the Pelham Republican was caught passing out business cards that appeared to claim he was a state representative. In his 2010 campaign for Massachusetts state representative, Estevez was forced to acknowledge that a photo in which he appeared to be speaking at a rally for Republican gubernatorial candidate Charlie Baker was a fake; retract a press release claiming he had been endorsed by the Massachusetts Italian American Police Officers Association; and rewrite his bio to remove the claim that he had been Barry University student body president.

Estevez would benefit from the counsel of campaign consultant Craig Varoga. “Making substantive changes or altering the context of a photograph is not only misleading,” he writes in Campaigns & Elections, “it’s downright stupid.”

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Kuster was for accepting 100,000 Syrian refugees before she was against it

(Image: Eliza Kern/CC BY 2.0)

Before her vote this week to effectively halt the resettlement of Syrian refugees in the U.S., Second District Congresswoman Ann Kuster urged the president to “be bold” and take in 100,000 refugees from the war-torn country by the end of 2016.

Then the terrorist attack in Paris left 130 dead -- and political strategists warned Democrats of a “massive backlash” in the next election if they continued to support the refugee program.

‘It is our moral duty... to assist’

In September, Kuster joined dozens of Democrats in signing a letter to the president urging him to dramatically increase the number of refugees allowed to resettle in the U.S.

“The number of Syrian refugees that the United States has resettled since the start of the conflict — approximately 1,500 — is insufficient in light of the current crisis,” the letter read. “We appreciate the recent announcement that your Administration plans to increase the refugee quota for 2016 and we strongly feel that such an increase must be bold, and take into account the enormity of the current crisis.”

The congressional Democrats called for accepting “a minimum of 200,000 refugees by the end of 2016, including 100,000 Syrian refugees” and answered critics who warned the refugees would be a security risk. "This criticism,” they wrote, “ignores the fact that the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program subjects applicants to more thorough security vetting than any other traveler or immigrant to the United States.”

"It is our moral duty, as a nation founded on the principles of equality and freedom, to do what we can to assist our brethren who are in desperate turmoil, and are searching for the slightest gesture of goodwill,” the letter concluded. “As Americans and Members of Congress, we believe it is our duty to do the right thing and offer protection to those fleeing violence and turmoil in the Middle East.”

Strategists warn of ‘massive backlash’

Following the terrorist attack in Paris, Democratic strategists presented polling data to members that indicated lawmakers would pay a steep political price if they opposed Republican legislation to effectively halt the refugee program, Huffington Post reported.

Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY), former head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, acknowledged the briefings. “And while he didn't explicitly encourage members to vote for the SAFE Act,” Huffington Post reported, “the implication was clear: you will be vulnerable if you don't support the only piece of refugee-related legislation that has gotten a vote after the Paris attacks.”

"Don't let this non-issue become a battering ram against Democrats," another strategist reportedly told House members.

Thursday, Kuster crossed the aisle to vote with the Republican majority in favor of the “American SAFE Act of 2015,″ despite a veto threat from Pres. Obama. “Today I voted to strike the balance of protecting the safety of our homeland while preserving American compassion,” she explained in a written statement.

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Kuster follows vote to halt Syrian refugee program with fundraising email blasting ‘GOP extremist’

Syrian refugees. (Photo: IHH Humanitarian Relief Foundation/CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)

1:55 p.m.

In response to fears arising from the terrorist attacks in Paris, the U.S. House of Representatives today passed legislation that would effectively halt the resettlement of Syrian refugees in the U.S.

The House passed the “American SAFE Act of 2015″ by a 289-137 margin. 47 Democrats, including 2nd District Congresswoman Ann Kuster, crossed the aisle to vote with the majority despite a veto threat from Pres. Obama. Two Republicans joined 135 Democrats in voting against the measure.

The bill would require the FBI director, Homeland Security secretary and national intelligence director to personally confirm that each applicant poses no threat -- the strictest screening ever required for refugees fleeing a war zone. Attorney General Loretta Lynch said the new requirements are impractical and impossible.

The U.S. State Department has explained that current procedures require each refugee requesting resettlement to be vetted by the United Nation’s refugee agency, and then separately by the State Department, the FBI and the Departments of Defense and Homeland Security. The process takes between one-and-a-half and two years.

2:35 p.m.

In a release posted on Facebook, Kuster said she voted in favor of the legislation to “strike the balance” between protecting Americans and preserving our fundamental values:

My number one priority is to protect the security of the American people. Today I voted to strike the balance of protecting the safety of our homeland while preserving American compassion. With a thorough vetting process in place, we can assure safe passage for women, young children and elderly refugees fleeing rape and other atrocities in their war-torn land. Americans are a compassionate people and we cannot let ISIS terrorists destroy our way of life or our fundamental values.

3:28 p.m.

About 90 minutes after Kuster cast her vote in favor of halting the refugee program, supporters received a fundraising email in which Kuster described her potential 2nd District opponent as a GOP extremist. “The media, pundits, and political insiders are watching to see what happens next,” she wrote:

I just wanted to make sure you knew the latest in my race. The GOP extremist with his eyes on my seat is really gearing up. He just stepped down from his leadership position presumably to concentrate on his campaign. This requires a swift response from us. [...]

Having one of the first primaries in the nation just around the corner, all eyes will be on New Hampshire Democrats. The media, pundits, and political insiders are watching to see what happens next, and we can't come up short.

If you've saved your payment information with ActBlue Express, your donation will go through immediately...

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Kuster fundraising email raises specter of race against Democrats’ favorite bogeyman: Bill O’Brien

An end-of-quarter fundraising email from Congresswoman Ann Kuster warns of a potential re-election campaign against Democrats’ favorite bogeyman. “Rumors are swirling that Bill O’Brien could challenge Annie!” the email reads.

The message goes on to offer a synopsis of O’Brien’s legacy as House speaker, when he “fought to defund Planned Parenthood, repealed our state minimum wage, instituted the most severe cuts to education and made ‘right to work’ legislation a top priority.”

We haven’t heard the swirling rumors of a congressional bid by O’Brien but he did briefly run for the the seat in the last election cycle. The Mont Vernon Republican ended that campaign to take a position in the private sector after a disappointing initial fundraising effort.

Earlier this year, O’Brien’s name was floated as a possible primary opponent for Sen. Kelly Ayotte by conservative Republican activists. The effort to recruit O’Brien for the primary challenge began after he publicly blasted the senator following the arrest of her staffer, David Wihby.

O’Brien scotched those rumors writing, “I am honored by those who think I should run, but I will not. I have made commitments that I must keep and there are obstacles that are insurmountable.”

For good measure, the Kuster fundraising email also targets the Koch brothers. “It’s clear that Bill O’Brien is only fighting for the Koch brothers’ agenda,” the message adds. “Fight back.” Send money.

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Kuster statement opposing Dodd-Frank roll-back at odds with congressional voting record

Image: Eliza Kern / CC BY 2.0

Congresswoman Ann Kuster's assertion that she opposed a provision in the 2014 spending bill that weakened banking regulations is at odds with her congressional voting record.

In December, the outgoing Congress passed a $1 trillion spending package that funds most of the federal government through the current fiscal year. The so-called "CRomnibus" legislation included controversial language rolling back a provision in the Dodd-Frank banking regulations that prohibited FDIC-insured banks from engaging in risky swaps and derivatives trading.

Kuster told the Concord Monitor she opposed the Dodd-Frank provision (and another measure raising the limit on contributions to political parties) but voted for the spending bill to avoid a government shutdown. “ 'As standalone bills, I would be opposed' to those measures, [Kuster] said, but she felt it was 'a better deal than if we’d closed down the government and come back in January when the Republicans controlled the Senate.' "

Salon's David Dayen tracked the legislative history of the Dodd-Frank "push-out" repeal contained in the CRomnibus bill and noted the language is "virtually identical" to HR 992, the “Swaps Regulatory Improvement Act,” which Kuster supported:

The origins of eliminating Section 716 go back to the writing of Dodd-Frank itself. Blanche Lincoln, author of the derivatives regulations in the bill, initially included practically all swaps. A combination of lobbyists, Wall Street-friendly “New Democrats” and the Treasury Department significantly rolled that back, limiting it to the riskiest bits, like credit default swaps that don’t go through a clearinghouse.

After wounding the provision, the banks employed their allies in Congress to disappear it entirely. A bipartisan coalition, including Jim Himes, D-Conn., a former vice president at Goldman Sachs, introduced a host of bills to weaken derivatives rules as far back as 2011. HR 992, the “Swaps Regulatory Improvement Act,” sailed through the House Financial Services Committee 53-6 in spring 2013. The language of this bill, written by Citigroup lobbyists, is virtually identical to what passed in the CRomnibus.

As we reported in 2013, Kuster was one of six Democrats on the House Agriculture Committee who voted with the Republican majority in favor of HR 992. When the bill advanced to the House floor, Kuster once again voted in favor of the legislation, which was approved by the House in a 292-122 vote before dying in the Senate.

The New York Times reported Citigroup lobbyists drafted the language in HR 992. It's worth noting that Kuster, who is a prodigious fundraiser, has received $8,000 in campaign contributions from the Citigroup PAC. This cycle, she raised over $90,000 in PAC money from the financial industry including contributions from Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, TD Bank USA and UBS Americas.

Kuster's communications director did not respond to our email seeking clarification.

h/t: Dean Barker

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Watching the election returns: Links and resources

Image: Marc Nozell / CC BY 2.0

Links to up-to-the-minute vote totals from Associated Press:

U.S. Congress:  Total  |  Detail

N.H. Governor and U.S. Senate:  Totals  |  Detail

N.H. House and Senate:  Totals  |  Detail

N.H. Executive Council:  Totals  |  Detail

Miscellany Blue PVI data and maps:

Executive Council Districts:  Map

N.H. Senate Districts:  Map

N.H. House Districts:  Map1  Map2

N.H. Towns:  Map

Daily Kos Elections has developed "county benchmarks" to help understand partial returns. I've reproduced the New Hampshire data here. The chart lists the eight New Hampshire towns that provided at least 2% of the statewide vote in 2012 with the percentage the Democratic candidate in each race needs to be on track to hit 50 percent statewide.