The Russia–Saudi Arabia oil price war of 2020 is a financial war activated in March 2020 by Saudi Arabia in light of Russia's refusal to decrease oil creation so as to save prices for oil at moderate level. This monetary clash brought about a sheer drop of oil price over the spring of 2020, with the price getting negative on 20 April 2020.
Russia left the understanding, prompting the fall of the OPEC+ partnership. Oil prices had just fallen 30% since the beginning of the year because of a drop popular. The price war is one of the significant circumstances and end results of the right now continuous global stock market crash.
Instead of taking measures to temporarily slash supply to keep up with the demand drop, Saudi Arabia and Russia are going head to head to increase supplies. It is nigh impossible to model the current abnormal situation, as it is both temporary and unsustainable.
A new model of oil market can be seen through the perspective of the Game Theory.
Saudi Arabia being the Dominant Monopoly in this Game theory, needs to balance the conflicting price and market aspirations, US being the second player.
All of OPEC+ members’ fiscal balances depend on oil revenues. So this isn’t a matter of just economy, but of survival.
On the other side, as long as US producers don’t run out of shale rocks to crack, they are neither incentivized nor can they formally enter into any sort of production agreements.
The only way for production cuts to materialize in the US would be for independent company action based on economic condition.
To attempt to balance global oil demand within the next three months is a fool’s errand, and the oil complex must assume that there will continue to be a massive oversupply of oil and oil products. With that in mind, the only focus for oil producers should be limiting supply and avoiding the disastrous scenario of global storage reaching its limit.
Demand, meanwhile, is not expected to turn around until July at the earliest. So, if OPEC+ wants to avoid a complete stoppage of oil flows due to full tanks, it has no choice but to cut. It is no longer a matter of prices, but a matter of oil evacuation. Saudi Arabia and Russia may hold leverage, but there is a physical limit to this leverage.
While the focus in Q2-Q3 should be simply to avoid flooding global oil storage, Saudi Arabia and Russia will be looking to draw a long-term commitment from the U.S.
Putting aside this abnormal oil demand crash, OPEC+ will be aiming to develop a strategy for the future and getting ready for life after coronavirus. In a stable market, even a 1 million bpd oversupply of crude can cause price havoc.