The road to zero emissions from road traffic is becoming very clear now. That the solution is battery electric vehicles (BEV) is now accepted even at most legacy carmakers. Only Toyota and friends still believe in a main role for hydrogen fuel cell (HFC) technology. A few others, like Renault, are looking for corner cases […]
(..)There are two timelines important in the transition. The first is the best known. It is the exponential timeline of the transition of the new car market, also known as “the S-curve.” The second is the often overlooked, far less sexy, linear transition of the fleet of cars on the street. The legacy OEMs must start making BEVs in time to survive, before the steep part of the S-curve makes them obsolete. Some big brands will be reduced to only a valuable name, like Bugatti or Hispano-Suiza. Others will struggle for years to either regain some of their former luster or to perish. Only those that are putting everything they have in building BEV production capacity have a chance to survive and prosper(..)
