#paine 5

[duggardata]

It’s a girl! Finley Marie.

When I first skimmed through the video, I thought they said “Lois Marie,” and now I’m sad that’s not the name.

[fundie-names]

Holland is clearly not very happy that she's no longer going to be the baby of the family 😂

[fundiebabynamebible]

So Erin wanted to name her daughter after the town in Anne of Green Gables. I'm not sure what to think about having Scotland as a potential name either, although I can see why she'd want to use it.

Harbor, Scotland, Ireland, Finley, Avonlea and Brighton. Maybe I was wrong about it not being place names.

[fundiebabez2]

Paine #5 Name Predictions

For a girl: First Name along the lines of Gabriella, Bethany, Shiloh, or Gianna. Continuing with the virtue name trend, I think the middle name will be either Love or Faith.

For a boy: First Name will be along the lines of Gabriel, Greyson, Camden, Colton, Chase, or Caleb. Middle Name will probably be a family name, either Gilvin or William.

[duggardata]

Erin is Pregnant!  (Wow!)

Get The Details, Data, and Predictions Here.

Normally, “shocking” is the last word I’d use to describe a Bates Pregnancy...  But, this one actually is!  After ruptured ovarian cysts forced her to have “one ovary ... and most of [the] second” removed, Erin (Bates) Paine is expecting—something she recently said would be “a huge miracle.”  Against all odds, the Paines’ 5th Child is due in January 2022.  Sharing the news via People, Chad said—

“Everyday life is a miracle, but this is such a special miracle for our little family.  For the past year, Erin has experienced different health problems, which ended up leading to multiple surgeries.  After consulting with our doctor, we realized having another baby was not going to be in our future.  It was sad, just because we both really love kids, but I knew Erin's health was the biggest priority, and we were overwhelmingly grateful for the four little blessings God has already given us.  We were content knowing that God sometimes has a different plan than our own.  As you can imagine, we were absolutely blown away when we found out the good news and really in shock!"

Read on for a full analysis—

Do we know Paine #5′s Due Date, or can we estimate it?

What is Paine #5′s Projected DOB?

Should we expect a Name / Sex Reveal and, if so, when?

How is Duggar Data planning to handle this data, given Erin’s recent health issues and surgeries?

How does this impact the Paines’ PP and ESOQ?

Will the Predictor resume pregnancy predictions for Erin + Chad?

Approximate Due Date, Projected DOB

As of 12:30 PM PST on August 24, 2021, the Paines haven’t said much about the Due Date...  All we know is that Erin is due in January 2022.  With nothing else to go on, Duggar Data will use the midpoint of January—i.e., January 16, 2022—as Erin’s Approximate Due Date (ADD), for now.

That said, Erin consistently delivers early—like, early early.  She gives birth 27 Days Early, on average, and she has never gone past Day 256 (24 Days Early).  Based on her ADD of January 16, 2022 the Predictor actually expects she will deliver in 2021.  Paine #5′s Projected DOB is December 20, 2021.

When to Expect The Sex + Name Reveal

Erin has revealed each of her 4 Children’s Sex + Name, before birth.  (And she has always done a joint reveal—i.e., Sex + Name, at the same time.)  Typically, the Paines do the joint Sex + Name Reveal when Erin is 126 Days Along.  But, with an ADD of January 16, 2022, Erin is already further along than that!  So...  They’ll probably do it soon.  Hard to say when, though!

How Will Duggar Data Deal w/ This Data?

Erin’s ovarian surgeries obviously slowed her down, here...  There’s simply no way they didn’t.  As such, it makes sense to factor in that ‘delay’ by adjusting the Child Spacing associated with this pregnancy.  Duggar Data already dealt with this issue with Alyssa...  Alyssa + John had a larger–than–normal spacing between Zoey and Maci due to Alyssa’s heart arrhythmia, which also required surgeries.  For them, Duggar Data dealt with it by simply ignoring the period of time between Zoey’s Birth and Alyssa’s 2nd (and Final) Surgery...  Maci’s Child Spacing is counted from the Surgery Date, not Zoey’s DOB.

I’ll do the same thing here, counting Paine #5′s Child Spacing from the day of Erin’s Last Surgery.  But...  At this point, we don’t know exactly when Erin had surgery...  So, that’s a slight issue!  Hopefully Bringing Up Bates might provide more information, here.  If not, we do know that she’d had 3 Surgeries prior to February 7, 2021.  (See Also.)  Also, it appears that she had her 1st Surgery at some point after she had COVID for the first time, and that was in August.  So, basically...  3 Surgeries between August 2020 and February 7, 2021.  Let’s just assume her 3rd (and Final) Surgery was in January 2021, shortly before Erin + Chad went public with her ordeal.  (This is entirely speculative, I’ll admit.)  For now, we’ll go with that, and count Paine #5′s Child Spacing from January 16, 2021—i.e., the midpoint of January—instead of from Holland’s DOB.

Effect on Procreative Pace, ESOQ

Counting from January 16, 2021 to December 20, 2021, it looks like Paine #5 will have a Child Spacing of 300ish Days.  That’s an outlier...  So, Duggar Data will hold off on analyzing this until we get a more solid date for Erin’s Surgery.  (And, if we never get one, I’ll have to treat Paine #5′s Spacing like an outlier.)

This is a developing datapoint.  I’ll let you guys know if I change my mind on how I’m going to deal with it, etc.

Based on non–Paine #5 Data, Erin + Chad’s PP is 552 Days.  Assuming that Paine #5 is born on December 20, 2021, and that Erin had Kelly Jo’s fertility, their 552–Day PP leaves them enough time to have 9 More Children...  Their ESOQ is, thus, 14 Children.  Prior to this, their ESOQ was 15 Children—and thus, Erin’s health ordeal ‘cost’ them 1 Child.

Will Predictions Resume?  

When Erin stated it would be “a huge miracle” for her to conceive ever again, Duggar Data halted pregnancy predictions for the Paines.  Now, it’s clear she actually can conceive...  As such, I’m planning to resume normal predictions.  This is subject to change if it starts to look like Paine #5 was just a one–time, crazy miracle that’s unlikely to recur.

We’ll play it by ear!

[duggardata]

I’m wondering if Erin might be due in February. I may have missed it but I think they only said they are “looking forward” to January? Since she always delivers early, they might be saying January since they know she’ll deliver in January? It would align a little more with data on when she announces if she was due in February, right?

Change to Erin’s Approximate Due Date (ADD)

You’re right, Erin didn’t say she’s “due” in January; she said, “We are looking forward to January 2022 now more than ever.” So, yeah, I think it’s possible she’s due in February, but knows she’ll give birth in January.

As for whether that fits better with their Pregnancy Announcement Timing data…. Erin + Chad publicly announce when Erin is 98 Days Along, on average. And, they announced Pregnancy #5 on August 24, 2021. If Erin’s Due Date is in February, she was 91–118 Days Along, as of yesterday. (Depends on what the exact Due Date is, obviously.) If this Pregnancy Announcement was exactly Paine–typical, made at exactly 98 Days Along, then the Due Date would be February 22, 2022. With this Due Date, Erin could also be confident that she’ll deliver in January; she has never delivered less than 24 Days Early.

Based on this, Duggar Data is actually going to shift Erin’s Approximate Due Date (ADD) to February 22, 2022.

Thanks for sending this in, Anon.

[duggardata]

Erin Enters The 3rd Trimester!

Based on her Approximate Due Date (ADD) of February 22, 2022, Erin Paine is now 28 Weeks Along with Paine #5 (Finley Marie). She’s in the 3rd Trimester!

[duggardata]

Erin and Chad posted a video on YouTube. Her last surgery was in January.

Indeed they did! Here's the link. In the video, they said that Erin had her 3rd (and Final) Surgery in January 2021, as I'd speculated. Not a lot of other useful data... Erin said she's in her 2nd Trimester, but we knew that already since she said she's due in January.

They talked some about how they'd been told it would be practically impossible to conceive and that Erin was told she was starting to go into menopause at Age 30... Then she got pregnant.

What's really crazy about this is that she got pregnant within months of that last surgery... So, not only did she get miraculously pregnant, it happened pretty quickly, like within a few cycles. Unreal.

They didn't talk about it at all, but I'm curious about what this might mean for their future fertility. Will this be a one–time thing, or could this mean that Erin's fertility is still intact, even with only part of one ovary? Baffling.