Pick a Player (Hockey Science with @lulucanwrite):
Sebastian Aho vs Brayden Point
Erin’s Note: yes both of us are Carolina fans. No, that did not play a part in the choice. The requester asked to know which player would fit better on the Carolina Hurricanes, we answer thusly.
These are the types of players that make it hard to believe that there are fans of this sport that don’t pay attention to teams in the South. We could spend an hour waxing poetic about Aho and Point until we’re blue in our faces and we (mostly Lulu) have bored you to tears. This one was pretty difficult considering they’re remarkably similar players and are going to be game changers for the foreseeable future. But, the suggestion was to look at the stats through the lens of the Carolina Hurricanes system so that changes things a little. To be clear, Lulu thinks they’d probably cry tears of joy if Point and Aho ever suited up on the Canes together, and Erin gets goosebumps thinking about it. Point has an exceptional finish and high level skill. But if we’re talking about system fit and who you’d rather see on the Canes, you have to go with Aho on this one--even if he was on some other team with the same stats.
But wait! The stats are pretty similar...what gives? When we tell you it shocks us how similar Point and Aho are...it’s a lot (almost as shocking as their draft spots but that’s another conversation). Their career FO% (face off win percentage) is about the same; goals, assists, and ATOI (Average Time on Ice) is similar as well. Point has a better SH% (shot percentage) than Aho with a 17.3% over 14.3%. However, in the Brind’Amour era, players know they have the coach's trust when they are on the ice in all situations and Sebastian Aho has shown aptitude in all situation play. Frankly, Aho’s a monster on the PK with a career average CF% (Corsi for percentage) of 24.5% vs Point’s 9.4%. And over 80% of Aho’s shifts on the PK start in the defensive zone. This means he is consistently given some of the toughest PK shifts and still has managed to pick up at least 3 short handed goals a year since the RBA regime began.
The PP is where the two of them align once again, with similar on-ice shooting percentages of 18.3% and zone starts. But Aho has, for the last several seasons, outperformed Point per 60 minutes and has a marginally better CF% on the powerplay as well. Yes, Aho is more prone to giving away the puck than Point, and no one can deny that Point is a zone entry monster. But, when considering the bigger picture with point share, CF%, PK magic, average takeaways, and a secretly heavy game, the Canes have to like what they have in Aho. If Point can get back to that one season he had 20 PP goals and also do some solid PK work, then Brind’Amour would probably want him on the next flight to Raleigh.
Lulu’s note: Also Bettman please bring back the Southeast Division. I want to see these two go toe-to-toe every year for selfish reasons.
(requested by @badhockeymom)
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