#picking winners

[johnschneiderblog]

A day at the races

Tuesday was opening day at Santa Anita Park and although we didn’t exactly get rich, we all cashed at least one winning ticket and two of us, including daughter-in-law Sacha and her mom, Satsuki (bottom photo) each picked three winners.

We were part of a robust opening-day crowd of over 37,000 who showed up at the track in Arcadia, about 40 minutes northeast of L.A.

It was a fine day, the atmosphere was festive and, as always, the thoroughbreds were beautiful.

[beyer316-blog]

More from Picking Winners

I am most of the way through Andrew Beyer’s Picking Winners. It’s a pretty quick read. Oh to have been alive when one could just pick out some good ones with speed figures that nobody else used. You can keep your book short that way.

I would like to relay a passage from the “Money Management” chapter, which I think may be the most dated section. Further reading of additional materials will determine whether that is correct. Other than this, all the various advice about how your horse should have run a race in about the last week to be sharp is the weirdest piece to keep seeing. 

But this section is just delightful in its crustiness:

As harmful as money problems and alcohol may be, the most deleterious effects on a horseplayer’s concentration are caused by women. When a gambler has had an exceptional day at the track, or is in the midst of a great winning streak, he may exude a sense of self esteem and confidence to which women respond. If this occurs the horseplayer is dangerously apt to fall in love, and the distraction is sure wreck him at the track.  

He then relates a couple superficial anecdotes to prove the point. But I love the exuding confidence and women responding.

[beyer316-blog]

More Beyer

The title of this blog is has no particular significance other than it being the most clever thing I could think of that day. And I do like it. But I am not an Andrew Beyer acolyte. I don’t typically use DRF PPs containing the speed figures and it seems like now when I hear about something he wrote I always disagree with him and/or am annoyed with his tone or something else if not that.

BUT

I want to be the best handicapper I can be. I have made considerable strides the last few years but now I want to get serious. One thing I have done very little of is reading the classic books of the genre.

I don’t know if I will finish with Beyer but that is where I am starting. Today Picking Winners, The Winning Horseplayer, and Beyer on Speed hit the porch.

I have cracked open the first listed, and anticipate reading these in that order. I’ll post some thoughts about them as I work my way through. Probably not hard-hitting analytical stuff. Stuff like this:

In reading books of this age there is a temptation, at least on my part, to look for stuff that is completely irrelevant today and to obsess over it instead of looking for the stuff that does matter. And the anecdote that leads off the book is one that has no relevance today.

Beyer relates the story of his crush on a bottom-rung maiden claimer named SUN IN ACTION that he staked his gambling reputation on when things had been going very poorly. Once he got the bets in for him and his cohorts it went off at 20-1 ... and finished second.

But there was an objection! And Sun in Action was put up due to crowding by the winner going into the FIRST TURN. 

ROFL.

[jimrosenz]

How much would politicians and bureaucrats be paid if they were any good at picking winners

How much would politicians and bureaucrats be paid if they were any good at picking winners

Substantial differences in public opinion when people are surveyed by phone versus online. pewresearch.org/2015/05/13/fro… http://t.co/nD2fhCT7o4— Justin Wolfers (@JustinWolfers) May 14, 2015

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[jimrosenz]

Moondoggle: The Forgotten Opposition to the Apollo Program - The Atlantic

Moondoggle: The Forgotten Opposition to the Apollo Program – The Atlantic

…many people believe that Project Apollo was popular, probably because it garnered significant media attention, but the polls do not support a contention that Americans embraced the lunar landing mission.

Consistently throughout the 1960s a majority of Americans did not believe Apollo was worth the cost, with the one exception to this a poll taken at the time of the Apollo 11 lunar landing in…

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[jimrosenz]

The market process picks unusual winners

The market process picks unusual winners

What World Bank consultant would risk his fee and return business on advising Egypt to specialise in the export of toilets to Italy? But Egypt’s largest single manufacturing export is toilets to Italy where is captured 93% of the market.

Kenya has a booming export business in cut flowers for men to buy for their wives. Kenya has 40% of the European markets for cut flowers. Nigeria has 84% of the…

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[jimrosenz]

The case against industry policy in one photo

The case against industry policy in one photo

Industry policy is back in vogue in New Zealand:

The National Party-led Government is keen on smart specialisation.

The Labour Party wants a Manufacturing Upgrade targeting R&D and innovation.

The case against picking winners is the answer to the question in the picture of the weirdoes below.

One of the people in the photo won a competition on the radio that offered free company…

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[ambitiousxmonsoon]

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