Beyer 3:16

Bet unto others if there is an overlay

[beyer316-blog]

Like so many races on a biased track, this one followed the script perfectly. Blessed Dancer popped out of the gate, went to the rail, and led French Dressing all the way around the track to win at 10-1, earning me Exley's thanks and admiration. All things considered, I would rather have looked dazzlingly brilliant for Candice Bergen than Exley, but the author paid me back as best he could.

Andrew Beyer in The Winning Horseplayer.

Candice Bergen? I had no idea she even existed before Murphy Brown, but Google Images reveals this was likely not such an abnormal view in those days.

[beyer316-blog]

The Winning Horseplayer Part 1

I have moved beyond Picking Winners and the handful of decent points made within it. Looking to pick up more useful information in The Winning Horseplayer. A trip handicapper is what I fancy myself as, or becoming. That is the focus of the first chapter after the first chapter. The first first chapter is just an introduction, after all.

Nothing new so far, but Beyer does relate an anecdote about a horse named FACILITATE that he had marked down as a winner next time after a dreadful trip. The story ends with him learning from a newspaper handicapper also waiting for the same horse, that he was entered way the hell over at Beulah Park and paid $30.80.

The story ends “And besides, if your ship is going to come in, who would think to look for it in Columbus, Ohio?”

Which...yeah. But the city is called Columbus. 

[beyer316-blog]

More from Picking Winners

I am most of the way through Andrew Beyer’s Picking Winners. It’s a pretty quick read. Oh to have been alive when one could just pick out some good ones with speed figures that nobody else used. You can keep your book short that way.

I would like to relay a passage from the “Money Management” chapter, which I think may be the most dated section. Further reading of additional materials will determine whether that is correct. Other than this, all the various advice about how your horse should have run a race in about the last week to be sharp is the weirdest piece to keep seeing. 

But this section is just delightful in its crustiness:

As harmful as money problems and alcohol may be, the most deleterious effects on a horseplayer’s concentration are caused by women. When a gambler has had an exceptional day at the track, or is in the midst of a great winning streak, he may exude a sense of self esteem and confidence to which women respond. If this occurs the horseplayer is dangerously apt to fall in love, and the distraction is sure wreck him at the track.  

He then relates a couple superficial anecdotes to prove the point. But I love the exuding confidence and women responding.

[beyer316-blog]

Commemorating Buc the Spartan

I was handicapping the 8th at Tampa Bay Downs today, looking into the case for AWE ZOOM (there isn’t much of one). She is a sibling of BUC THE SPARTAN, a gelding foaled in 2004. 

“Buc”, as his friends call him, won his debut in March of 2007 at Santa Anita, with a nice closing kick at seven furlongs on the dirt. Then, for about another year he ran in eight allowance and claiming type races. His last race was March 14, 2008, a seventh place effort at nine furlongs on the now all-weather main track at Santa Anita.

Well, everyone thought it was his last race.

January 20, 2011, he popped up off the 1,042 day layoff in a $25,000 n2L race at a mile on dirt again. Perhaps Vlad Cerin and his owners had been waiting for dirt to come back and were unaware that there are other tracks in the United States? 

And so bettors made him the co-favorite off that layoff and he wired those losers. 

He has not been seen again. I hesitate to call him retired.

[beyer316-blog]

Talkin’ Horses at the Fair Downs

It was a really nice day today in the Bay Area and by the time the races started I began to feel badly about sitting at home in front of the computer. Thankfully my brain felt like leaving the house to go sit in the turf club at the San Jose Fair Downs qualified as “getting out”.

I stayed there through the Donn. I am a MEXIKOMA fan. He is a prior Derby future wager. And I liked his chances quite a bit there and was glad to put in some bets built around him at 10-1. Close but no cigar. It would be neat if he came to Santa Anita for the Big ‘Cap, as Team Valor indicated was a possibility on Twitter.

I did notice in the race conditions that the top three received $10,000 in travel expenses and free nomination to the Big ‘Cap. I don’t know how old that incentive is, but I like it. Southern California can use a little bit of a boost in the quality and/or competitiveness of its stakes fields. 

It was a more lively crowd than any I have been a part of at the Fair Downs. This was probably my fourth or fifth time going. There were some guys who knew their stuff and would talk about it. Talking horses is always fun. Of course the one anecdote to pass on is of the guy who annoyed me the most. I have to get it off my chest.

But this guy lost his shit when UNCLE LINO put some pressure on I WILL SCORE early. Flipping out because they’re dueling and why would you do that!?!?! Everybody’s like, “Dude, they’re taking it easy.” He’d have none of it. He never would even say what his bet was. It must have been I Will Score, and he wanted him to be free up there.

But then even when Uncle Lino held for second he was adamant Gary Sherlock was a dumbass. So maybe he had that one? And wanted him to sit back of another with an easy lead and have to make up a bunch of ground on that? You think he would have done better than he did? 

Aggravating and hilarious at the same time.

Also, Tampa Bay Downs taking the fifth race off the grass messed up my whole day. That is merely aggravating.

[beyer316-blog]

PP Deep Cuts: Alfredo Romana

ALFREDO ROMANA goes in the sixth today at Tampa Bay in a starter allowance he has every right to crush (but might not given the recent form drop). 

Trainer David Nunn has done quite well with this horse as his trainer of record for 18 of his 20 career starts to date. One race he didn’t train him for was at Gulfstream on March 13 of last year. He had just had Alfredo Romana claimed away from him for $25,000 by Michael Petro. Petro then brought him back for that March race after 54 days for a mere $6,250. Nunn obliged by claiming him back and has gone 9-5-1-0 since for either much larger tags again or no tag at all.

I wonder what Frank Calabrese, owner of Alfredo Romana for the race with Petro, thinks about that.

[beyer316-blog]

More Beyer

The title of this blog is has no particular significance other than it being the most clever thing I could think of that day. And I do like it. But I am not an Andrew Beyer acolyte. I don’t typically use DRF PPs containing the speed figures and it seems like now when I hear about something he wrote I always disagree with him and/or am annoyed with his tone or something else if not that.

BUT

I want to be the best handicapper I can be. I have made considerable strides the last few years but now I want to get serious. One thing I have done very little of is reading the classic books of the genre.

I don’t know if I will finish with Beyer but that is where I am starting. Today Picking Winners, The Winning Horseplayer, and Beyer on Speed hit the porch.

I have cracked open the first listed, and anticipate reading these in that order. I’ll post some thoughts about them as I work my way through. Probably not hard-hitting analytical stuff. Stuff like this:

In reading books of this age there is a temptation, at least on my part, to look for stuff that is completely irrelevant today and to obsess over it instead of looking for the stuff that does matter. And the anecdote that leads off the book is one that has no relevance today.

Beyer relates the story of his crush on a bottom-rung maiden claimer named SUN IN ACTION that he staked his gambling reputation on when things had been going very poorly. Once he got the bets in for him and his cohorts it went off at 20-1 ... and finished second.

But there was an objection! And Sun in Action was put up due to crowding by the winner going into the FIRST TURN. 

ROFL.

[beyer316-blog]

WATERSHED ran admirably in Dubai on Thursday. Here he is prior to the Malibu Stakes at Santa Anita December 26, 2015. The little girl in red was such a whiny brat.

[beyer316-blog]

Scorer’s Ruling: Error

AMERICAN LEAGUE runs at Santa Anita on Thursday. By Old Fashioned out of a Grand Slam mare, and named American League?

That is an error. More like a foul, really, but in keeping with the theme...

The American League is the junior circuit. The National League is the senior circuit. Should have named the horse National League. Or, a million times better, Federal League.

[beyer316-blog]

Mishegas Hits the Grass for Sherman

In Sunday’s fourth race at Santa Anita, MISHEGAS races in a first-level allowance at a mile on grass. This comes after destroying a starter allowance field at Los Al on December 11. 

Prior to that race I had put Mishegas in my virtual stable as a horse who was consistently improving for Sherman and that if I could find a race soon with a little pace to run at he would make for a good bet.

I don’t play Los Al so missed my chance there, although that race didn’t really qualify for the conditions I laid out, and he was only 7-2. So no big deal that I missed it. But he took a big step forward there with the figure and winning by 13.25 lengths usually means you did pretty good. He was helped, at least visually, by everyone else stopping just as he got moving. But still.

And now he is on turf, where I think it is possible that his nice dirt turn of foot becomes something more like devastating. Not likely, but it is going to be interesting to see. He has some real competition in the form of ARABIAN LEOPARD and IMPERIOUS ONE, to name two. So if he wins or hangs right with those two it will be a good thing for his prospects.

His second dam, ALWAYS SURE, won a second-level allowance at Ellis Park at a mile on turf with a pretty nice late run from sixth at the half-mile pole.

Mishegas is 12-1 on the morning line and I don’t think he’ll get much lower than that.

[beyer316-blog]

Tribal Fighter Debuts with Strong Works

I am not yet calling this a Jeff Siegel short-priced FTS daymaker meltdown because TRIBAL FIGHTER is 8-1 on the morning line. (Indeed, he had one a day or two ago that was around 12-1 and even went off that high. Did not win either, but not counting it against him because the horse would have paid.) But it seems like the word is out on this one because Justin Finch also picked this first timer for Richard Baltas in his best longshots to play post. Both handicappers are relying on workout reports to get so high on this one, and thus I highly doubt anything like 8-1 will be available.

But since Siegel’s daymakers have not been coming from Santa Anita I usually don’t have much of an opinion to put up against his. I did handicap this race in advance, and I am not going to bet Tribal Fighter. Putting my money where my mouth is in criticizing these picks today.

This is not a very strong race, and would be prime for a debut runner with some precociousness to rip one off and graduate right off the bat. And Tribal Fighter could be that horse. But while Richard Baltas is a sharp one, he is also a patient one. And in this horse I see one who is very likely going to be pointed to the grass. Therefore, I am staying away, assuming 8-1 is not available.

I actually picked out this race as one with a lot of potential for a toteboard explosion. I really like in this spot a couple of 20-1 morning liners in WOODIE B AWESOME and WONDERING WAYS. Of the shorter prices, I favor LYMEBYRD and TRUE BRILLIANCE.

[beyer316-blog]

Wise Guy Horse: Reliable Source

In the 9th race Saturday at Santa Anita, RELIABLE SOURCE makes his second career start after a furious late rush in his debut to snag the show. This came after a skittish start and then no speed for a good long while after that.

He’s 4-1 on the morning line tomorrow and if he was higher I would expect him to get bet down to at least around there. I think he will be lower than 4-1 at post time as well.

And these horses never win, when the supposedly bad trip is super obvious and everyone is onto it, those horses never actually win. I think this is one of those cases. And to test the idea that they never win, I’m calling this one right now, the night before the race.

[beyer316-blog]

PP Deep Cuts: Prime Issue

While taking an early look at some of the races at Santa Anita on Saturday, I came across PRIME ISSUE in the fifth race. He’s attractive to me because this is his third start off of an extended layoff. He’s also being made available for a $25,000 tag, and so there is some question of whether he is toast or will relish the class relief here and rip one off.

That serves merely to explain why I was deep in his PPs when I came across something that amused me. 

On February 13, 2015, he was claimed for $12,500 by John Martin at Golden Gate Fields. In his next start, second place by a head, he was claimed for $16,000 by Robertino Diodoro at Golden Gate. In his next start, second by 0.75 lengths, he was claimed for $20,000 by Victor Fernandez at Santa Anita. In his next start having advanced to May 16, a win by a length, he was claimed for $25,000 by Jerry Hollendorfer at Santa Anita. 

That he got claimed out of four successive races, moving one rung up the ladder every time, is pretty remarkable to me. He’d been available for the initial $12,500 tag before, at times he was running pretty nicely. And then once he got taken one time there was a run on the Prime Issue market. 

He has made Hollendorfer a good bit of cash in 8 races for him now, and this is where Jerry makes him available again for that $25,000 tag he got him for. I hope he’s still got something to offer.

[beyer316-blog]

Siegel FTS Alarm #5

The hits just keep on coming. This time it was HOW NICE for Joe Sharp at the Fair Grounds. At least the horse stayed at the 6-1 morning line. Although where Sharp is concerned that is probably a warning sign in its own right.

7th of 9. I don’t feel like looking but I don’t think any of these have even run well.

[beyer316-blog]

Looks like I kinda missed the break on this shot of a race at Golden Gate Fields 1/16/16. The pony being in the way was annoying and threw me off.

[beyer316-blog]

Siegel FTS Alarm #4 (for the second time)

Jeff got off the hook with his last first timer who scratched off a soggy course. But he has gone back to the well today at Gulfstream with Chad Brown’s debuting MARKET STRENGTH, who I know without looking is from the execrable Klaravich Stables.

This is a Chad Brown runner on turf, so he may stand a chance this time. Still pretty hard to get excited about a two-year-old sale graduate who takes until 3 to get into the gate.

Post will be updated with results.

And those results are sixth place at 7-2.

And it’s not the same thing, so doesn’t go into this record, but the use of CINCO CHARLIE at Oaklawn today was similarly uninspired.

[beyer316-blog]

Fooled Again?

WARNING: This post is pointless. But maybe a little amusing. Just don’t expect to learn anything.

FOOLED AGAIN is entered in the fifth race at Santa Anita on Thursday trying turf for the first time going down the hill. One of the things that caught my eye when giving his PPs the first going-over was that he was sold at auction in Washington for a mere $43,000 while sired by Scat Daddy whose current fee is $100,000. 

So, you know, he was sort of a disappointing horse in some respects as a yearling prospect. 

I got the idea that perhaps his breeders had bred his dam, Valour Road, to Scat Daddy once before and also gotten a dud out of it. And so FOOLED AGAIN would go from a totally unremarkable name to a really good one.

Alas, if there is any such connection it is not detectable via the forensic tools of Equibase and Pedigree Query. 

Fooled Again is 20-1 on the morning line for the race and has the 1 post. Not a lot going for him here.