I remember you doing a post on Alyssa beating Erin with child #5. When does the predictor say she’ll take the lead now? Or will it be someone else?
Childbearing Race: When Will Erin Lose The Lead, and To Whom? (2021 Update)
[ Referenced Post: When Will Erin Lost The Lead, And To Whom? (2019) ]
Currently, Erin is ‘winning’ the Bates Childbearing Race with 4 Children + 1 On The Way, but Whitney and Alyssa are gaining on her. Each has 4 Children and isn’t currently known to be expecting. So... Who will take the lead and when? Here’s what’s expected, as of August 31, 2021—
If Paine #5 is Erin + Chad’s Last Biological Child—
Recently, Erin suffered ruptured ovarian cysts, requiring surgical interventions. By January 2021, she’d undergone surgery to have “one ovary ... and most of [the] second” removed. As a result, Erin + Chad believed they’d be unable to have any more biological children. As Erin explained to Us Weekly—
“To ever get pregnant again would be, like, a huge miracle because I basically have one third of an ovary left, but it’s very scarred from three surgeries. So at this point, it’s not in the question at all, which is sad because me and Chad always talked about having at least 10 children, but you never know what God has for the future.”
Despite this, Erin miraculously became pregnant with Paine #2, and will likely deliver in January. It’s unclear if Paine #5 really is a “huge miracle,” and Erin likely won’t be able to conceive again, or if her fertility was less affected than she thought... So, let’s run through both scenarios!
If Paine 5 is the Final Paine, here’s when the Predictor expects the rest of the Bates to ‘catch up’ to Erin...
1–26–22 Paine #5 is born, establishing Erin’s lead with 5 Children. At this point, neither Alyssa nor Whitney has announced Pregnancy #5.
3–02–22 ... but, that doesn’t last long. About 1 Month later, Alyssa + John announce Pregnancy #5.
7–31–22 Webster #5 is born to Alyssa + Chad, so they’re tied with the Paines. Whitney still hasn’t announced. She’s lagging behind.
11–12–22 Whitney finally announced Pregnancy #5.
05–25–23 Bates–Perkins #5 born to Zach + Whitney.
08–21–23 Alyssa takes the lead by announcing Pregnancy #6. Erin + Chad and Zach + Whit still have only 5 Children Each, and either can’t get pregnant (Erin) or aren’t yet pregnant again (Whitney).
01–19–24 Webster #6 born to Alysas + John, and they officially seize the lead from the Paines. (Whitney won’t even announce Pregnancy 6 until October... She’s lagging behind again, and won’t catch up.)
Alyssa will maintain her lead for several years, but Tori + Bobby will gradually close the gap... Smith #6 will arrive ~16 Months after Webster #6, and every subsequent Smith and Webster will be closer and close in age until...
10–05–36 Tori + Bobby announce Pregnancy #15 before the Websters. This is the first time this has ever happened.
11–13–36 Alyssa + John announce Pregnancy #15, but they are going to lost their lead; Alyssa is due after Tori.
03–20–37 It’s official. Tori overtakes Alyssa. She and Bobby will keep their lead until their fertility runs out.
If Paine #5 Isn’t Erin + Chad’s Last Biological Child—
Okay, but... What is Erin + Chad actually aren’t infertile, and Paine #5 isn’t “a huge miracle” that’ll never recur. If that’s the case and they maintain their PP, here’s what the Predictor expects to occur...
Erin + Chad will maintain their current lead, though the gap will slowly close over the years. Their rivals will be Alyssa + John and Tori + Bobby. (Zach + Whitney won’t be much competition, at all... By Paine #6, the Paines will be ‘ahead’ by nearly 2 Years, and their lead will only grow.) Here’s when things start to get interesting, and the Paines’ lead will be threatened...
12–28–26 Webster #6 born to Alyssa + John, <6 Months After Erin + Chad had Paine #6, thus establishing Alyssa as a serious rival. They never take the lead, but they’ll slowly close the gap over the years.
08–05–34 Smith #13 is born to Tori + Bobby, <6 Months after Erin + Chad had Paine #13. Again, Erin has a clear rival!
09–03–35 Erin’s 14th + Final Child is born, and is quickly followed by Webster #14 (6 Weeks Later), and Smith #14 (1 Month After That). The Paines are officially retired from the Procreative Race!
10–05–36 Tori + Bobby are first to announce Pregnancy #15, which effectively blocks the Websters from ever taking the lead. (Harsh! A power move if I’ve ever seen one!)
11–13–36 Alyssa + John announce Pregnancy #15, too late!
03–20–37 Smith #15 is born, and Tori officially overtakes Erin, while edging out Alyssa for good. Tori will never lose her lead, nor will she experience any true competition from any of her sisters or SILs. Tori + Bobby will end up with 18 Children—a feat that’ll be matched by one sister (Katie, 5 Years Later), but never beaten.
In the end, the real winner will be Kelly Jo, because none of her children will manage to reach Child #19, let alone the elusive #20.