#reversion

[the-scoreboard]

hoarfrost please!

Yayyy more pokemon stuff! More reversion pokemon stuff! Have a kitty!

[briabooknerd]

Before the cure series 1-3

After the cure series 1-5

[farisingle]

[cheerfullycatholic]

How an Indie Horror Game Renewed My Faith

"Sometimes, it takes a near-death experience and an indie horror game to be humbled and ready to listen."

FAITH features a priest on a mission to remedy a failed exorcism that took place the year before. The game is rife with terrifying monsters, eerie music, and bone-chilling notes that spell out the story of what exactly happened. Throughout this, you are given only one object to defend yourself: a cross. As long as you have faith in the cross, you will continue moving forward towards the hope of a positive conclusion to the story. I’m a sucker for a good scary story, and I was intrigued by the way this one positively portrayed religious devotion. No matter what the protagonist faces, even when he begins to fear that he may not be strong enough to go up against the literal forces of Hell, he holds up his cross for protection. During his journey, however, his cross loses its luster, and the priest’s wavering faith proves to leave the character more vulnerable. It is not until a fellow priest joins him in his battle against the game’s various enemies that his cross regains its brilliance, allowing the two holy men to finally defeat the evil before them. This message about relying on — and trusting — others to get us through difficult journeys struck a chord. I used to tell people that despite the tragedies and trials I faced, I wholly trusted God to see me through the dark. It didn’t ever occur to me that I was lying to myself and others in saying this. I expected God to fix my problems, or at least work in ways that allowed me to continue about my life without having to ask for others’ support. I refused to let myself be cared for, forgetting that God so often works through others to help us.

[j-august]

Only thoughts of beautiful things came into his mind; he had reverted to an earlier period of life, when as yet no mission of literary realism had been imposed upon him, and when his passions were still soothed by natural hope.

George Gissing, New Grub Street

[yesand87]

Reminder for Adults Vacationing with Their Parents This Summer:

It doesn't matter how much money they spent on you

It doesn't matter that they hoped to see you out of your room more

It doesn't matter that the triggering event they planned is non-refundable

It doesn't matter that they hate how often you're on your phone

You Don't Owe Them Anything!

Especially you wonderful people with disabilities and mental illness!

You are able to function at home using a specific cocktail of rituals/comforts. Don't let your parents' treatment of you as a child pull you back into your childhood.

Draw Your Lines & Stand Your Ground

No vacation is worth your mental health!

[jeffhirsch]

Mean Reversion After Biggest 1-Year Spike Since 1949?

Lots of chatter out there about the giant 1-year gain of 75% on the S&P 500 from the March 23, 2020 low – actually it’s 74.78%. It may very well be the beginning of a new bull market, but that does not mean (pun intended) that we should expect gains like these moving forward.

We ran the numbers on the 1-year rolling returns for the S&P 500 back to 1949 and while these giant spikes do come at the early stages of extended bull runs gains of this magnitude have not been sustained and the market has tended to revert to the mean. The arithmetic mean or average rolling 1-year return since 1949 is 9.15%, which isn’t bad either.

With lingering pandemic/vaccine and political and geopolitical issues, all the noise from the Fed and the bond market, Robinhood and Reddit stock pumping, rich valuations, teetering internals, extended technicals – and the end of the Best Six Months November-April on the horizon, it is not inconceivable to expect the market to consolidate over the Worst Six Months May-October (AKA “Sell in May”).

Last time we had a 1-year rolling return of this magnitude in 2010 when the S&P was up 68.57% on March 9, 2010 from the March 9, 2009 secular bear market low we had a 10.34% correction to the July 2, 2010 low and a 15.75% rolling 1-year return from March 9, 2010 to March 9, 2011. And let’s not forget the May 6, 2010 flash crash. So while we are by no means “bearish” perhaps a little caution and portfolio defense in the near future is not a crazy idea.