Prof. Robert Aumann says his game theory proves that giving up more just encourages more terrorism and kidnappings.
Citing the game theory for which he won the 2005 prize in Economic Sciences, Aumann wrote, “Tomorrow and the next day give us an incentive for current behavior. Based on past data, we know what tomorrow and the next day will look like after a terrorist-release deal: The Israelis who will be murdered by those liberated terrorists, the headwind for terrorist organizations and our enemies around us to kidnap soldiers and civilians. All of these should already give our leaders a very significant incentive: to refuse such a deal overwhelmingly.”
“If you give the enemy a positive incentive to do something – he’ll do it, and will try with all his might to kill and kidnap,” he wrote.
Aumann added that ancient Jewish law cited the same principles, quoting from the Talmud that it is forbidden to redeem prisoners “for more than their value, because of the good order of the world, so that enemies will not run to capture more people [for ransom].”
Hamas is demanding the return of the dozens of prisoners who were rearrested after the Shalit deal. They also want the release of a few hundred female, older and sick Palestinian prisoners.
