Revisiting R. Rotberg's Failed States in A World of Terror
Introduction
Rotberg articulates that the characteristics of a failed state often fall under around five facets that chip away at a state's legitimacy: the dissolution of social & political collaboration and order, insufficient infrastructure, a collapsed health system, antagonism, and corruption. The dissolution of social and political collaboration is exhibited through the characteristics of hostility, civil wars, cultural aggression, and fear-mongering to fuel such aggression among citizens. While not all collapsed states—Afghanistan, Angola, Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Sudan—exhibit the same, but often they exhibit most. These characteristics ultimately culminate in a lessening of the legitimacy of the state because of its inability to deliver the basic necessary goods and services to its citizens.
As Rotberg articulates, tribalism and globalism are central to the collapse of a stable state into a position of failure, both as a factor and a contributor. Tribalism, or the fragmenting of a society along ethnic and cultural lines, is brought up by Roberg to be a characteristic of a state’s failure: “rising ethnic, religious, linguistic, and cultural hostilities…” (Rotberg 132.) This tribalism, when occurring in a state that lacks legitimacy, such as a state on the way to or currently undergoing failure, can and often does escalate to violence that further decks the state’s legitimacy, contributing to further state failure; being cyclical in that sense. Globalism, in the context of state failure and Rotburgs’ article, is more so affected by than a contributor to state failure, however that is not to say globalism is never responsible for state failure. Globalism–the principle of interdependence across nations–can contribute to the further destabilizing of an already failing state. On the other hand, Rotberg seems to have a particular emphasis more so on how state failure affects globalism and threatens the stability of a global alliance, “State failure threatens global stability because national governments have become the primary building blocks of order” (Rotberg 130.)
Examination
Rotberg asserts that preventing states from tipping into total failure should be the primary objective, but the focus is not as binary as focusing on the distress tribalism creates instead. Tribalism, from my interpretation of Rotberg’s article, and understanding of the United States' current position as, I believe it to be a weakening state, focusing on tribalism is the first in a series of preventative measures against the fall into state failure. While Rotberg's initial framing, reflexively, seems important, tribalism and the rise of it within a society should indicate an impending weakening of a state. Thus, resolving outlying spikes in tribalism, and ensuring that the government in place is intent on determining and managing these groups when the drift into extremism becomes a more crucial battle to fight.
The United States, is on the brink, similar to the examples Rotberg provides of Chad and Kyrgyzstan–weak state’s who did ultimately fail– exists as not yet a weak state but a weakening state. Aspects such as the current spike of tribalism evident in the rise of not just major alt-right MAGA but also the rise of online white masculine supremacy in figures such as Andrew Tate, Charlie Kirk, indicate a larger tribalism forging and creation of cultural clashes.
The insurrection was a particular spike that mirrored an articulated concern of Rotberg, “The social contract that binds its citizens and central structures is forfeit” (Rotberg 132). But even beyond the current tribalism that mirrors the tribalism of a weakening state, the shift of global engagement and interdependence that Rotberg notes as a preventative measure exists which is opposite to the current international tension the United States finds itself in. Rotburg asserts that preventative measures do exist in the case of a weakening state like Zimbabwe, “preventive diplomacy, targeted financial assistance…” (Rotburg 137.) But with the current posturing of the United States in global politics, it seems that we are not employing preventative measures, and instead giving to the weakness, our diplomacy is being deployed as hostile as possible such as in the case of Donald Trump's engagement with Ukraine and Zelensky's visitation of the White House. While we are not yet a failed state, our diplomatic, economic, and internal cultural practices mirror a weakening state, and if we do not shift tactics and find some value within Rotberg’s advice and employ preventive measures, we will soon begin to fail.
For the past few years Turkey has weakened its legitimacy and its position as a state, by permitting and not regulating the rise of authoritarianism within itself, and may soon fail as it enters conflict with both Syria, and accompanying aggression from Israel, as its global powers keels and shrinks as its economic policies shift. As addressed previously, both the notions of tribalism and globalism should be used as benchmarks for the veracity of predictions. First, the tribalism within Turkey is notably on the rise, as is, as Rotberg articulates, “Destructive decisions by individual leaders [...] pav[ing] the way to state failure” (Rotberg 128.) These destructive–and slowly more authoritarian–decisions can be seen in the arrest of the mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, under the unproved assertion by the political rival and current incumbent president, Tayyip Erdogan. This led to what was deemed to be the most extreme period of protesting seen in Turkey in the past two decades . Civilian unrest is on the rise, and political tribalism is both the benefactor and the cultivar of it. The global threats of both Syria and resulting allyship between Israel and Turkey, function as fulfilling the global instability aspects of Rotberg’s criteria. Currently Turkey and Israel have found allyship with one another, as tensions with Syria rise as a result of the state's growing instability and Turkey's backing of Mr. al-Shara, the leader of an extreme Syrian rival group that overthrew the party last December. Certain preventative measures, not too different from what Rotberg articulates, “jump-starting the economy” by raising interest rates by 46%, but this may not be sufficient as tensions with Syria rise (Rotberg 138.) The current Israeli intervention is not benefitting Turkey's instability as it creates a perception of Turkey as a threat that cannot be sustained as internal tribalism destroys its legitimacy as a state.