We have a political crisis in the Congolese government. Remember how I always speak about the strengthening of democratic institutions in the Congo? Here is what is happening...
In 2011, way before the presidential elections, we were supposed to hold local and provincial and national elections. It was pushed to after the presidential elections and up until now, we have not held them.
The current Congolese senate is illegal and illegitimate... I explain:
The mandate of Congolese senators expired in 2011 and there were supposed to be the election but it did not happen. Senators have paid themselves their bonuses and have increased their salaries. Yet, these senators should not even be there.
The National Assembly (our House of Representatives) is also illegal and illegitimate for the same reason above.
These two branches of government are working every day, passing laws... they have even privatize the electricity without taking into consideration proposals of the civil society... and all is going on like everything is good.
In 2016, the term of the current president Joseph Kabila will end.
Here is what the Congolese constitution says
Article 70
The President of the Republic is elected by direct universal suffrage for a term of five years which is renewable only once.
At the end of his term, the President stays in office until the President-Elect effectively assumes his functions.
Article 220
The republican form of the State, the principle of universal suffrage, the representative form of government, the number and length of the terms of office of the President of the Republic, the independence of the Judicial Power, the pluralism of political parties and trade unions may not form the object of a Constitutional amendment.
Any constitutional amendment having as its objective or consequence the reduction of individuals rights and liberties or the reductions of the prerogatives of the provinces and decentralized territorial entities is formally prohibited.
What does that mean? It means that given the second term of Kabila, there is no way that Kabila can run again in 2006 and it is impossible.. and I say IMPOSSIBLE for him to change the consitutional term limits because Article 220 says that you cannot amend Article 70 which creates the two terms term limit.
Are you following?
Now... with an illegal and illegitimate senate and national assembly who have so-called representatives that have not been elected by the people according to the election schedule and are being paid over $10,000 a month with all expenses paid for, do you think these guys are going to challenge the Kabila regime trying to maintain power in 2016?
Here is a scenario I think they may try...
The government is creating a so-called coalition government coming out of the "national dialogue" that the government organized among itself.
Given it will be very hard to change the constitution without a big outcry from the population, the government will more than likely come out and say "given the electoral contention of 2011, we have decided to nullify the results and organize a fresh new elections in 2016." This will void the current term limit as not counting as the second term but as a transitional term and have Kabila run again in 2016.
Now... many people do not want a coalition government... many also understand what game is playing out right now. It is very likely that the current regime will use the defeat of M23 for political reasons just as they did in the 2006 elections by selling "peace" to folks in the East. The constitutional faux-pas they are making is to make the population get used to delays and their unlawful acts. If we continue to accept these actions, there will not be a chance to rebuild our democratic institutions.
All of these are happening under the radar... and the current regime in Kinshasa would like the Congolese people to accept this.
My biggest beef is with the law students at the University of Kinshasa. How come they are not protesting the unconstitutionality of government's actions? We can't just watch these guys get outrageous salaries illegally and play games with 71 million Congolese!
I still believe that #2016 will be the crossroads for the Congo. Just as our parents witnessed in 1965 how Mobutu took over the government for 5 years, then 8 years, then stayed forever... we are now witnessing the same for our generation. Just as we ask our parents what they did when they saw what Mobutu was doing, we will also be asked "how come you allowed that taxi-cab driver to run for a third term in 2016?"
The Choice is ours... my Congolese brothers and sisters... It is going to indeed be #2016NewDawn.
We can't wait... and watch... Be a history maker... Not for you... but for the children of our children...
