Oh my God, Tori (Bates) Smith—who married Bobby Smith in December 2017, and has since had 3 Children in rapid succession—is pregnant yet again. She and Bobby announced Pregnancy #4 via Instagram on Mother’s Day (May 8th, 2022). They also revealed that it’s a girl, due sometime in August.
[ Permalink to Pregnancy Announcement ]
The Smith–Bateses already 3 Children—Kade, 3–1/2; Kolter, 2; and Charlotte, 10–1/2 Months. When Smith–Bates #4 arrives, they’ll have 4 Under 4.
Read on for a full analysis!
Approximate Due Date (ADD)
Per the Pregnancy Announcement, Tori is due “in August” of 2022. Consistent w/ Duggar Data’s standard method of interpreting vague date data like this, I’ll be using the mid–point of August—i.e., August 16, 2022—as the Approximate Due Date (ADD), until and unless the Smiths provide more exact data.
Projected DOB + Child Spacing
After 3 Births, Tori delivers 16 Days Early, on average. (She was 15 Days Early w/ Kade, 21 Days Early w/ Kolter, and ~11 Days Early w/ Charlotte.) Based on this, and Tori’s ADD of August 16, the Predictor thinks that Smith–Bates #4 will arrive on July 31, 2022.
Smith–Bates #3 (Charlotte Raine) was born on June 24, 2021. If Smith–Bates #4 arrives on July 31, 2022, as forecast, that’ll be a Child Spacing of just 402 Days (13.25 Months). That’s Tori + Bobby’s shortest Child Spacing, to date... Kade–to–Kolter was 502 Days (~25% Longer), and Kolter–to–Charlotte Raine was 456 Days (~13% Longer). It’s also impressively short, in general. Among Bateses, only two Non–Firstborn, Non–Post Loss spacings were <402 Days... Zach–to–Michaela, 389 Days and Lawson–to–Nathan, 398 Days.
Early, Late, or What?
They’re Significantly Early, though their Pregnancy Announcement was dead–on. When Charlotte was born, Duggar Data forecast the following, with regard to Smith–Bates #4—
Baby News May 3, 2022
Sex Reveal May 17, 2022 (or w/ Baby News)
Due Date November 1, 2022
Projected DOB October 16, 2022
As you can see, the timing of the Pregnancy Announcement was dead–on with my prediction (May 8 vs. May 3); however, Tori was further along than forecast. She is due in August, rather than November, with a Projected Child Spacing of 402 Days, rather than the initially–forecast 479 Days. Doing the math, they are 77 Days (or 11 Weeks, or ~2.75 Months) Early. Given how fast the pace was already, that’s... Truly exhausting to think about.
Impact on Procreative Pace / ESOQ
Prior to this, Tori + Bobby’s Procreative Pace (PP), which was based on their Non–Firstborn Spacings, was 479 Days (~15.7 Months). Kade–to–Kolter was 502 Days, and Kolter–to–Charlotte was 456 Days.
Now, averaging in Charlotte–to–#4′s Projected 402–Day Spacing, their pace shifts to 453 Days (–26 Days). Just one Predictor Couple, Courtney + Chris Rogers, has the Smiths solidly beat... The Rogerses’ PP is a mere 413 Days. (Technically, Nurie Keller and Allison Helferich are also outpacing Tori—but, in both cases, their PP is very speculative, since they only have 1 Child, so far.)
After Charlotte’s birth, Tori + Bobby’s ESOQ was 18 Children. Now, with the data from Pregnancy #4, their ESOQ is 19 Children (+1 Child), which means that Tori is on–track to quite literally be the next Kelly Jo. (Wow!)
Tori + Bobby vs. Kendra + Joe
Tori + Bobby were outpacing Kendra + Joe after Charlotte’s birth—and, with Pregnancy #4 being early for them, they’re poised to remain in the lead.
Kendra isn’t publicly–known to be pregnant, though rumors are aplenty...
When To Expect Smith–Bates #5
Based on the adjusted data, here’s what the Predictor is forecasting—
Baby News June 3, 2023
Sex Reveal With the Baby News
Due Date November 12, 2023
Projected DOB October 27, 2023
And, yes, that means they’re expected to have 5 Under 5! (Ahhh!)
Tori fired up the baby canon again! She and Bobby announced they were expecting baby 4, a girl, on 9th May 2022. Very little else was said until the birth announcement on 5th August. Baby Cambree Layne arrived on 2nd August 2022 weighing 5lbs 2oz.
Cambree has not entered the top 1000 baby names since records began in 1900. The meaning of Cambree is 'the people'
Cambree took her mother's middle name of Layne, meaning 'path', has had slightly more success, but only very recently. It entered the top 1000 girl names in 2020 at position 926. 2021 saw 332 Laynes born with is clinching the 828th spot. Maybe Tori is a trendsetter.
Layne has enjoyed much more success as a boy's name. It entered the top 1000 in 1957 at #967. It rose through the 6 and 700s over the following 8 years. 192 Laynes were born in 1959 and earnt its highest position to date at #562. Then the decline began; it fell to #807 by 1965. 6 years later in 1970 it left the top 1000 at #869. That is not the end of the story. 1994 saw somewhat of a rejuvenation when Layne re-entered the top 1000 boy names in #926 position. In 1995, the year of Tori's birth, it jumped to #717. It has remained strong in the 6 and 700s during the past 25 years, and in 2021 429 male Laynes were born, earning it #640 in the statistics.
Due in August 2022, Tori’s Approximate Due Date (ADD) w/ Smith #4 is August 16, 2022—i.e., the midpoint of the month. Based on that, she’s now 37 Weeks Along—and thus, “early term.” She could deliver anytime.
Tori and Bobby will have 4 under 3. Kade only turns 4 in November
[ Follow–Up to This Post ]
You’re right, but I wouldn’t call that 4 Under 3, since Kade isn’t <Age 3. When the baby arrives, he’ll be 3 Years, 9 Months, which is <4, but not <3. So, that’s 4 Under 4, not 4 Under 3. Right?
