Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2025 Jan 06 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels with a total of three M-class
flares, all from Region 3947 (N11E21, Dkc/beta-gamma-delta). The largest
of these events was an M3.1/1n flare at 06/0152 UTC. The other two
M-class flares were an M2.4 flare at 05/1537 UTC and an M1.4/1f flare at
06/0350 UTC. Multiple C-class flares observed from this region as well.
Region 3947 maintained a weak delta signature in its trailing spots, but
observed slight overall decay.
Region 3941 (S06W74, Dso/beta) produced a C5.0 flare at 05/1817 UTC, and
Region 3949 (S05W53, Cso/beta) added a C4.8/Sf at 05/1807 UTC. Region
3943 (S16W10, Cso/beta) contributed a C4.3 flare at 05/2057 UTC, and
Region 3945 rounded out the C-class flares with a C3.2/Sf flare at
06/0751 UTC. The remaining active regions were either relatively stable
or in decay.
No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery. However, a fast CME originating from AR 3939 on 04 Jan was
modeled and determined to be a glancing blow at Earth by late on 06 Jan
with the bulk of the material being well ahead of Earth's orbit.
.Forecast...
R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a chance for
isolated R3 (Strong) or greater events through 07 Jan, as AR 3947
continues to mature and a number of active regions approach the western
limb. Probabilities decrease slightly on 08 Jan as multiple regions
transit and exit the western limb, but AR 3947 remains.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached a peak flux of 1,070 pfu at
05/1950 UTC, but was not sustained long enough to warrant a SWPC
electron flux alert. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux began the
period in S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels at 04/2255 UTC,
reached a peak flux of 20 pfu at 05/0055 UTC and ended at 06/0940 UTC.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to briefly reach high
levels early on 06 Jan and return to normal to moderate levels for 07-08
Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue a
gradual trend towards background-like levels over the course of 06 Jan
while a chance for another event remains. A slight chance for S1 (Minor)
solar radiation storming will persist on 07 Jan and through 08 Jan as
multiple CME producing regions transit and exit the western limb.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment reflected sustained, but slightly weakening,
positive polarity CH HSS influence. Total field primarily ranged 6-9 nT,
the Bz component underwent several, sustained southward deflections of
-5 to -7 nT, and solar wind speeds gradually decreased from ~600 km/s to
-530 km/s. Phi remained in a positive orientation.
.Forecast...
An enhanced solar wind environment due to positive polarity CH HSS
influence is expected to persist, although gradually weakening, through
08 Jan. An additional shock to the environment is likely by late on 06
Jan due to the aforementioned 04 Jan CME giving glancing effects.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active.
.Forecast...
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely, with a chance for an isolated
G2 (Moderate) period, by late on 06 Jan due to glancing effects from the
periphery of the 04 Jan CME. Unsettled to active conditions are expected
on 07 Jan as any CME effects linger, coupled with weakening positive
polarity CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on
08 Jan as CH HSS effects taper off.