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Advisories: Space Weather Outlook

Forecasts and Summaries: NOAA Geomagnetic Forecast Forecast Discussion NOAA 3-Day Forecast Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA) Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data (The Weekly)

Geomagnetic Storm Products: WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G4 or Greater Predicted WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 (G1) WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 (G2) WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 7 or greater (G3 or Greater) ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 (G1) ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 (G2) ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 7 (G3) ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 8 (G4) ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 9 (G5) WARNING: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse

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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2026 Jun 10 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 10-Jun 12 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 10-Jun 12 2026 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 00-03UT 2.00 2.00 3.67 03-06UT 1.33 2.00 4.00 06-09UT 1.33 3.00 4.00 09-12UT 2.67 2.67 2.33 12-15UT 2.00 3.00 2.00 15-18UT 2.00 3.00 2.67 18-21UT 2.00 3.00 2.00 21-00UT 2.67 2.67 2.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 10-Jun 12 2026 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: A slight chance of solar radiation storms are expected through 12 Jun. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 10-Jun 12 2026 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 15% 15% 15% Rationale: Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for an X-class flares (R3-Strong) through 12 Jun, mainly due to the flare potential of Regions 4464 and 4465.

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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2026 Jun 10 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at low levels with most of the C-level activity originating from Region 4465 (N09E47, Dsi/beta-gamma), including the largest flare of the day; a C2.6 observed at 10/0059 UTC. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk, with the inclusion of newly numbered Regions 4466 (N06W24, Dao/beta) and 4467 (S08W02, Bxo/beta. A Type-II radio sweep was observed by two RSTN stations at 09/1557 UTC, with estimated velocity of 917 km/s, likely associated with C-class flaring from Region 4463 (N16E03, Hsx/alpha). The plage Region 4461 (S21, L=012) also produced some of the C-flares of the period, including a C2.3/1f (113 mil) at 09/1918 UTC. Some CME activity was observed in the coronagraph imagery during the period. One CME first observed at the NE quadrant of LASCO/C2 around 09/1630 UTC which was associated with an eruption near (and south of) Region 4463. Preliminary analysis suggest glancing effects near-Earth on 14 June. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flares through 12 Jun, mainly due to the flare potential of Regions 4464 (S12E04, Dsi/beta) and 4465. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels with a peak flux of 4,259 pfu at 09/1525 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels during the period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux levels at geosynchronous orbit are likely to decay to low to moderate levels on 10-12 Jun. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind speed remained slightly elevated after the passage of a weak transient starting near 09/0950 UTC. The total IMF saw an increase of the IMF from 5nT to 10 nT and the Bz component turned predominately south until about 09/1500 UTC. Another period of southward Bz component occurred between 09/1635-2000 UTC, reaching -8 nT at 09/1810 UTC. The transient also resulted in an increased density and temperature. Solar wind speed oscillating around 450 km/s during the enhanced period, but speeds decayed to near 400 km/s by the end of the period. The Phi angle remained mostly in the positive sector through about 09/2256 UTC when it shifted northward. .Forecast... Background solar wind conditions are expected through midday 11 June when a -CH HSS is anticipated to become geoeffective through 12 June. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 10 and 11 June, becoming unsettled to active on 12 June.

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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2026 Jun 10 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at low levels with most of the C-level activity originated from Region 4465 (N09E54, Dsi/beta-gamma), including the largest flare of the day; a C4.5/Sf observed at 09/0423 UTC. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk, with the inclusion of newly numbered Region 4466 (N06W16, Bxo/beta). Departed Region 4455 (N15, L=092) continued to produced some weak C-class flares, including a C3.2 at 09/0700 UTC. A Type-II radio sweep was observed by two RSTN stations at 09/1557 UTC, with estimated velocity of 917 km/s, likely associated with C-class flaring from Region 4463. The plage Region 4461 (S21W23, L=11) also produced some of the C-flares of the period, including a C2.3/1F (113 mil) at 09/1918 UTC. Some CME activity was observed in the coronagraph imagery during the period. One CME first observed at the NE quadrant of LASCO/C2 around 09/1630 UTC which was associated with an eruption near (and south of) Region 4463 (N16E10, Hsx/alpha). Preliminary analysis suggest glancing effects near-Earth on 14 June. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flares through 12 Jun, mainly due to the flare potential of Regions 4464 (S12E11, Ehi/beta) and 4465. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels with a peak flux of 4,259 pfu at 09/1525 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels during the period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux levels at geosynchronous orbit are likely to continue reaching high levels through 10 June, returning to moderate levels on 11-12 June. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has a slight chance of crossing threshold through 12 Jun. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind speed suggested the passage of a weak transient starting near 09/0950 UTC, with an increase of the total IMF from 5nT to 10 nT and the Bz component turning predominately south until about 09/1500 UTC. Another period of southward Bz component occurred between 09/1635-2000 UTC, reaching -8 nT at 09/1810 UTC. The transient also resulted in an increased density and temperature. Solar wind speed remained oscillating around 450 km/s during the period. The Phi angle remained mostly in the positive sector during the day. .Forecast... Background solar wind conditions are expected to be restored by 11 June, and a -CH HSS is anticipated to become geoeffective on 12 June, disturbing the near-Earth solar wind parameters. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 10 and 12 June, with a day of quiet to unsettled levels in between (11 Jun).

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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2026 Jun 10 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 10-Jun 12 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 10-Jun 12 2026 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 00-03UT 3.67 2.00 3.67 03-06UT 2.67 2.00 4.00 06-09UT 2.67 3.00 4.00 09-12UT 2.00 2.67 2.33 12-15UT 2.67 3.00 2.00 15-18UT 2.00 3.00 2.67 18-21UT 2.67 3.00 2.00 21-00UT 3.00 2.67 2.33 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 10-Jun 12 2026 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: A slight chance of solar radiation storms are expected through 12 Jun. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 10-Jun 12 2026 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 15% 15% 15% Rationale: Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for an X-class flares (R3-Strong) through 12 Jun, mainly due to the flare potential of Regions 4464 (S12E11, Ehi/beta) and 4465.

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NOAA Geomagnetic Forecast

:Product: NOAA 3-day Geomagnetic Forecasts :Issued: 2026 Jun 09 2200 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # NOAA Ap Index Forecast Observed Ap 08 Jun 008 Estimated Ap 09 Jun 012 Predicted Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 012-012-015 NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun Active 45/35/45 Minor storm 15/10/15 Moderate storm 01/01/01 Strong-Extreme storm 01/01/01 NOAA Kp index forecast 10 Jun - 12 Jun Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun 12 00-03UT 3.67 2.00 3.67 03-06UT 2.67 2.00 4.00 06-09UT 2.67 3.00 4.00 09-12UT 2.00 2.67 2.33 12-15UT 2.67 3.00 2.00 15-18UT 2.00 3.00 2.67 18-21UT 2.67 3.00 2.00 21-00UT 3.00 2.67 2.33

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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jun 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Jun, 11 Jun, 12 Jun). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 507 km/s at 09/0555Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 09/1026Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 09/1823Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4259 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (10 Jun, 12 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (11 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (10 Jun, 11 Jun, 12 Jun). III. Event probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun Class M 55/55/55 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 09 Jun 130 Predicted 10 Jun-12 Jun 130/130/128 90 Day Mean 09 Jun 125 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jun 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jun 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jun-12 Jun 011/012-010/012-013/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jun-12 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/35 Minor Storm 10/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 45/35/45

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WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected

Space Weather Message Code: WARK04 Serial Number: 5362 Issue Time: 2026 Jun 09 2022 UTC WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected Valid From: 2026 Jun 09 2020 UTC Valid To: 2026 Jun 09 2359 UTC Warning Conditions: Onset Comment: NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur. Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2026 Jun 09 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at low levels with numerous C-class flares observed from Regions 4456 (N18W67, Esi/beta), 4464 (S12E17, Dsi/beta) and 4465(N09E63, Dsi/beta-gamma). Most of the activity originated from Region 4465 with the largest a C4.5/Sf observed at 09/0423 UTC. There are seven active regions on disk, most of them remained stable or showed some decay in area. Region 4464 indicated some minor enhancements among its intermediate spots. Departed Region 4455 (N15, L=092) also produced some weak C-class activity. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Isolated M-class flares are likely, with a slight chance for X-class flares, through 11 June primarily due to the flare potential exhibited by Regions 4456, 4462 (N16W14, Dsi/beta), 4464 and 4465. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,310 pfu at 08/1340 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels during the period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux levels at geosynchronous orbit are likely to continue reaching high levels through 10 June, returning to moderate-low levels on 11 June. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 11 June. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters suggested a slow decline in the wind environment. Solar wind speeds decreased from about 450 km/s to near 400 km/s, while the total Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) strength showed a slight oscillation around 5nT. At about 09/0954 UTC, The IMF increased sharply to 10 nT. The Bz component oscillated between -5 nT to +3 nT, and further reached S to -5 nT. The Phi angle remained mostly in the positive sector during the day. .Forecast... Analysis of the solar wind parameters, along with the suprathermal ions and electrons data from instruments at L1, suggested that the 06 June CME glancing passage near Earth already occurred on 08 June, reducing our confidence in further impacts on the next days. Therefore, background solar wind is expected until 11 June, when a -CH HSS is anticipated to become geoeffective. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels during the past 24 hrs. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 09 June, quiet to unsettled levels on 10 Jun, and active levels on 11 June (due to anticipated -CH HSS effects).

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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2026 Jun 09 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 09-Jun 11 2026 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 09-Jun 11 2026 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 00-03UT 2.00 3.00 2.00 03-06UT 2.33 3.33 2.00 06-09UT 1.67 2.33 3.00 09-12UT 2.00 2.00 2.67 12-15UT 2.33 2.00 3.00 15-18UT 2.00 2.00 3.33 18-21UT 2.33 2.33 3.00 21-00UT 2.33 2.33 4.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 09-Jun 11 2026 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: A slight chance of solar radiation storms are expected through 11 Jun. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 09-Jun 11 2026 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: Isolated R1/R2 (Minor/Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for isolated R3 (Strong) events through 11 June, primarily due to the flare potential exhibited by Regions 4456 (N17W61, Dai/beta), 4462 (N15W07, Dsi/beta), 4464 and 4465.

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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2026 Jun 09 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained at low levels with the two largest flares of the day originating from Region 4465 (N11E70, Dao/beta): a C7.2 at 08/0249 UTC and a C4.5/Sf at 08/0510 UTC. There are eight active regions on disk, most of them remained stable or showed some decay in area. Region 4464 (S12E24, Dac/beta-gamma) became more complex magnetically, gained additional intermediary spots during the period, and was the source of a C1.2 at 08/1733 UTC. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Isolated M-class flares are likely, with a slight chance for X-class flares, through 11 June primarily due to the flare potential exhibited by Regions 4456 (N17W61, Dai/beta), 4462 (N15W07, Dsi/beta), 4464 and 4465. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,310 pfu at 08/1340 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels during the period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux levels at geosynchronous orbit are likely to continue reaching high levels through 10 June, returning to moderate-low levels on 11 June. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through 11 June. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters suggested a glancing blow from the 06 June CME that was anticipated to arrive during the period. Solar wind speeds decreased from about 600 km/s to below 450 km/s, while the total Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) strength showed a slight oscillation around 5nT. All the 3 components of the IMF vector became negative between 08/0300 UTC and 08/1400 UTC, with Bz reaching as south as -4 nT around 08/0919 UTC. The Phi angle remained mostly in the positive sector during the day. .Forecast... Analysis of the solar wind parameters, along with the suprathermal ions and electrons data from instruments at L1, suggested that the 06 June CME glancing passage near Earth already occurred on 08 June, reducing our confidence in further impacts on the next days. Therefore, background solar wind is expected until 11 June, when a -CH HSS is anticipated to become geoeffective. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels during the past 24h. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 09 June, quiet to unsettled levels on 10 Jun, and active levels on 11 June (due to anticipated -CH HSS effects).

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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2026 Jun 09 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 09-Jun 11 2026 is 4.33 (below NOAA Scale levels). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 09-Jun 11 2026 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 00-03UT 4.33 3.00 2.00 03-06UT 4.00 3.33 2.00 06-09UT 3.00 2.33 3.00 09-12UT 3.33 2.00 2.67 12-15UT 2.33 2.00 3.00 15-18UT 1.67 2.00 3.33 18-21UT 3.00 2.33 3.00 21-00UT 2.67 2.33 4.00 Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 09-Jun 11 2026 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 09-Jun 11 2026 Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: Isolated R1/R2 (Minor/Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for isolated R3 (Strong) events through 11 June, primarily due to the flare potential exhibited by Regions 4456 (N17W61, Dai/beta), 4462 (N15W07, Dsi/beta), 4464 and 4465.

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NOAA Geomagnetic Forecast

:Product: NOAA 3-day Geomagnetic Forecasts :Issued: 2026 Jun 08 2200 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # NOAA Ap Index Forecast Observed Ap 07 Jun 008 Estimated Ap 08 Jun 009 Predicted Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun 017-010-015 NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun Active 45/35/40 Minor storm 15/10/10 Moderate storm 01/01/01 Strong-Extreme storm 01/01/01 NOAA Kp index forecast 09 Jun - 11 Jun Jun 09 Jun 10 Jun 11 00-03UT 4.33 3.00 2.00 03-06UT 4.00 3.33 2.00 06-09UT 3.00 2.33 3.00 09-12UT 3.33 2.00 2.67 12-15UT 2.33 2.00 3.00 15-18UT 1.67 2.00 3.33 18-21UT 3.00 2.33 3.00 21-00UT 2.67 2.33 4.00

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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jun 2026 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Jun, 10 Jun, 11 Jun). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 585 km/s at 07/2110Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 07/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/1807Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1,610 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (09 Jun, 11 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (10 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (09 Jun, 10 Jun, 11 Jun). III. Event probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun Class M 55/55/55 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Jun 131 Predicted 09 Jun-11 Jun 132/130/130 90 Day Mean 08 Jun 125 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jun 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jun 016/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jun-11 Jun 014/017-009/010-012/015 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jun-11 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/30 Minor Storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 45/35/35

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WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted

Space Weather Message Code: WATA50 Serial Number: 100 Issue Time: 2026 Jun 08 2117 UTC CANCELLED WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G3 Predicted Cancel Serial Number: 99 Original Issued Time: 2026 Jun 06 2211 UTC Due to current conditions no longer reflecting CME influence, the G3 Watch for 08 Jun and the G2 Watch for 09 Jun are cancelled. Due to current conditions no longer reflecting CME influence, the G3 Watch for 08 Jun and the G2 Watch for 09 Jun are cancelled.

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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2026 Jun 08 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 08-Jun 10 2026 is 6.67 (NOAA Scale G3). NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 08-Jun 10 2026 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 00-03UT 2.33 5.67 (G2) 3.67 03-06UT 2.33 5.33 (G1) 3.33 06-09UT 2.67 4.33 2.33 09-12UT 3.00 3.33 2.00 12-15UT 5.67 (G2) 3.00 2.00 15-18UT 6.67 (G3) 3.33 2.00 18-21UT 5.33 (G1) 3.67 2.67 21-00UT 5.67 (G2) 4.00 2.67 Rationale: Periods of G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) geomagnetic storming are likely on 08 Jun, with G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) levels likely on 09 Jun, due to the anticipated passage of a CME that left the Sun on 06 Jun. B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 08-Jun 10 2026 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 S1 or greater 25% 5% 5% Rationale: There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels on 08 June with the shock arrival of the 06 June CME. C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 08-Jun 10 2026 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 10 R1-R2 55% 55% 55% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10% Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely, with a slight chance for an R3 (Strong) or greater event, over 08-10 Jun.

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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2026 Jun 08 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity returned to low levels with mostly lower level C-class flare activity. Region 4455 (N15W82, Hsx/alpha) underwent decay and remained relatively quiet. Region 4456 (N17W55, Dai/beta) underwent minor decay as well. Regions 4462 (N15W02, Dsi/beta) and 4464 (S12E31, Dai/beta) experienced growth as they gained additional spots and tacked on C-class flares as well. New Region 4465 (N11E80, Dao/beta) was numbered this period and produced the largest flare, a C7.2 at 08/0249 UTC. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... A chance for isolated M-class flare activity (55%) will persist through 10 June primarily due to the flare potential exhibited by Regions 4456, 4458 (S05W69, Dso/beta), 4462 and 4465 alongside the flare history of Region 4455. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels with a peak flux of 2,874 pfu at 07/1540 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly enhanced due to the eruption from the M1.8 flare event on 06 June, but was well below the S1 (Minor) radiation storm threshold. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to return to normal to moderate levels on 08 June with the arrival of the 06 June CME. 2 MeV electron flux levels are likely to return to high levels by the close of 09 June and continue at high levels through 10 June. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels with a chance for an S1 (Minor) event on 08 June with the shock arrival of the 06 June CME. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected positive polarity CH HSS influences. Total field primarily ranged 4-5 nT and the Bz component was +/- 4 nT. Solar wind speeds peaked at approximately 589 km/s, but overall gradually declined to about 475 km/s. .Forecast... A disturbed and enhanced solar wind environment is expected by early to mid UTC-day on 08 June with the shock arrival from the 06 June CME bringing enhanced magnetic field and faster solar wind. These enhancements are anticipated to continue into 09 June before gradually diminishing through 10 June. Geospace .24 hr Summary... Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming are likely to begin by mid UTC-day on 08 June with the arrival of the CME that left the Sun on 06 June. G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming is likely during the latter half of 08 June, but this outcome is dependent upon how much the CME has expanded into the Sun-Earth line as the model indicates a bulk of the material to be mostly south and east of Earth. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely to linger into the early portions of 09 June before giving way to unsettled to active conditions that carry into 10 June.