OKAY so I’ve been reading about Hitman 2/3 theories and thinking on the ending of the Haven level a lot and decided to make a post about it because analyzing stuff is fun dkfjghdjkfhg
Spoilers for the end of Hitman 2/the Haven level below the cut! (y’all its so much I’m sorry KJLDFHGKJFHG its Hitman Lore And Meta Time)
FIRST lemme just say. Y’all I’m very aware I’m a big Lucas Grey fan dkjgfhkdjhg BUT I did my best to make sure that wasn’t getting into my analyzation too much, I like being as objective/unbiased as possible bc the Hitman storyline is wonderful (and if Lucas is the villain oooo Drama™)
anyway this is gonna be a long ramble so here’s the TL;DR
Big point: I don’t think we can accurately piece together any sort of an answer currently, and IO wants us to doubt everyone and everything for the “hook” into the next game, and they did a lovely job at it! Thank you IO <3
My three running theories with the info we have:
None of the main four are working with the constant, and he is manipulating them all to try and turn them on each other, making them doubt each other to cause dissension among them (see: him telling Diana about the hit on her parents, the concept that he’s making Lucas out to be a traitor) which could result in Lucas’ death (or not)
Lucas is being “held hostage” in a way by the constant-- Edwards has him by some threat or pressure point credible enough to make Lucas work for him
The least likely in my opinion due to evidence and Lucas’ character, but still possible maybe: Lucas made a deal with the constant somehow (when he would’ve found the time, I don’t know) because he’s got it in his head that he and 47 should be the providence leaders-- somewhere along the way he got so obsessed/focused on this all he got his view skewed and genuinely thinks he’s doing a good and helpful thing
So what prompted me was this specific comment on a hitman subreddit theory thread:
So to me, the idea that Lucas has been a traitor from the start doesn’t seem to add up. If you look at everything we've seen from IO about him, it shows that Lucas is on a path of vengeance-- suddenly allowing The Constant off the hook seems like a massive shift in character, especially considering the comic and what we've seen of Lucas and 47 as kids (more on this in a bit)
So the only leap you can make after that to blame Lucas is the second comment on that reddit response, but that seems like such a big cheesy sci-fi stretch to me. If you look at Lucas and 47 knowing they’re clones, you can clearly see the resemblance. They aren’t just brothers, they’re like. They’re near exactly the same in appearance (save for the fact that 47’s in much better shape and like. Bald DFHFDJHG). You could argue that Lucas had his face changed to appear to be a clone, but you have to consider that they both have the hand scars from the pact they made as children, the comic confirms Lucas/6’s existence, Lucas has a lot of Ort-Meyer knowledge others don’t have, and 47 is remembering Lucas
Any leap past that gets wackier, like...
- Maybe 47 has DOUBLE fake memories from his time in the institute and this has been planned from the beginning? Doesn’t seem satisfying nor IO’s style, plus it seems rather out of character for 47.
- Ether antidote somehow gave him fake memories? Also nah, seems just too out there/odd/improbable
So from here, the only thing that I can personally add up and understand in the vein of Lucas being a traitor is the concept of Lucas maybe having a bent concept of like... morality? I can see him maybe getting a bit too over the edge, too bent and obsessed on Providence and taking them down, and somehow talking himself into thinking he and 47 need to be in control of Providence because they’re the only ones that can make things “right”. From what I’ve seen, he hasn’t exhibited behavior that tells me that in full, but that makes much more sense than him being A Complete Snake™ because if he was a traitor it would defo be in the “he fully thinks he’s doing the right and good thing for 47”
ANYWAY consider this evidence in game:
- Lucas being shown repeatedly to go to great lengths to avoid collateral damage/citizens getting hurt or killed (you can overhear this being talked about on Hawke’s Bay, Columbia (and from Lucas himself in Rico’s office), and I think Colorado, but I’m not sure. I’m sure there’s other locations as well).
- Lucas' genuine concern for Olivia to the point that he gives her her whole own security detail (seen on Colorado, thank u @olliemander for showing me that!!!), as well as the fact that he met her when she was 7 (can somebody say father figure), and she's the only person in the whole militia to have both seen him and know his real name, not even Sean Rose knows his name and those that have seen him have all been killed (Viktor, the Providence member in the cutscene after Sapienza)
- His seemingly genuine reaction to realizing he killed Diana's parents (seen in the cutscene before Sgáil)
- His seemingly genuine concern over 47's wellbeing after the ether antidote (seen in the cutscene after Whittleton)
- His seemingly genuine reaction to/at the institute (the man is genuinely emotional over it all)
- The Constant's complete bafflement at Lucas' actions-- you can overhear this on Sgáil-- and I suppose you could argue that this is just fake so Edwards and Lucas can play the long con, but that seems unlikely to me
- also this is less of a piece of evidence but still interesting, Lucas’ man on the island that gets him the info on the poison chip and the Washington Sisters comes from a genuine NPC you can listen to, who calls Lucas to give him more info and tell him their debt from their old CICADA days is repaid and to just leave him alone now AKJDLFHGKJDFHG
I mean, yeah, it could all be things to mislead us, but I don’t think so-- his behavior lines up throughout the years of his life that we’ve been shown, and 47 isn’t one to blindly trust people.
This leaves the idea that Lucas has been working with Edwards from the start, but that too seems like a long stretch to me-- Lucas seems to hate what he and 47 had to go through (as seen in the comics and just his behavior we’ve seen), and he carries that weight (like he mentions in the cutscene before Sgáil, and in the Homecoming cutscene). He seems to really struggle with survivor’s guilt over his escape from the institute. Plus Lucas doing a double side switch seems a bit Much™ (but I totally could be wrong akdljfhgkjdgh)
Ultimately tho, here's the thing: I don’t think we can solve this puzzle yet, because IO wants us to wait for Hitman 3. What good is it if we bust it before the game comes out?
They did this with the end of the Sgáil mission-- it was a big ominous cliffhanger but then we just sorta scooted along (so they could keep building the story, it was well done IMO)
My most likely theory at the moment is the idea that Edwards is trying to turn 47, Lucas, Diana, and Olivia on each other because he realizes they’re a threat. Bc If I’m real, I currently don't think any of the core group are working with The Constant, which is terrifying, because it means the constant is way more powerful than we thought and way less helpless than we thought he was in his current position. (So that means the text/phone call/whatever Lucas got in the end cutscene was from Edwards posing as someone else like Olivia). Plus, if Diana gets into contact with 47, she’s going to tell him Edwards is gone. If for some reason 47 can’t contact her, he’s going to be suspicious and on high alert.
Edwards is a scheming, smart dude and I don’t doubt him being able to do that at all. He knows Diana and 47 are close and trust each other (“in his own special way, he cares about you”) and felt the need to mention to her that 47 and Lucas were behind her parents’ deaths-- that’s not just bonus information, he did it for a reason. This also puts his line of “Do you really want to do this to me?” to the Partners in reference to being under scrutiny and needing the poison chip under a SUPER terrifying and ominous light. What sort of power does this man wield?
I would personally love to see Lucas survive these games AKJHSFJGH but I can see the story leading to 47 have to make a call to shoot Lucas (thinking he’s a traitor), playing hard against the emotions of it all, especially with the reveal that this was all a set up by The Constant, making 47 go after him with a vengeance. (also not to be angsty™ but can you imagine Lucas and 47 talking after 47’s shot him? Oof ouchy my heart)
Another possibility I can see is like my friend Synth suggested-- Lucas wanting to go in violently and take it all out on The Constant, while 47 holds him back for tactics sake
In terms of Lucas and Edwards working together, sans them planning it from the start, there really would’ve been no time for Lucas to talk to The Constant between his capture and the departure for the bank. I also can’t currently make sense of many reasons why Lucas would side with him and not tell 47 or Olivia
My final idea that plays into the idea of Lucas as a traitor is the idea that, somehow, The Constant is holding Lucas hostage in a way? That if by chance they got to speak to each other, The Constant lorded some threat over Lucas that was serious enough to him to agree to help him (like a threat against 47 or Olivia, etc). I’m not sure though, but the idea is interesting to me :Oc
aNYWAY big ol’ rant over! Here’s some pics of Lucas’ voice actor in Alice and Wonderland enjoy fdjgkhdfkjghkjfh
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I’ve stuck all my Hitman oneshots in a series on ao3!!! I’m hoping to make some more soon, the characters are v fun to explore (even tho 47 is very hard to write akfjhdjkahf)
i might write abt victoria soon??? bc i love her!!! but we shall see fkjhdkfj
Hitman games always return to the status quo of Diana and 47 working together for the ICA. Having a side character of such huge consequence as 6 will upset that balance. IO cleverly managed to phase Victoria out of the world by setting HITMAN seven years after Absolution, so she’s 21 years old, off doing her own thing, and no one has to think about her anymore.
But 6 is 47′s “brother”. It would be weird to have him run off into the sunset after Hitman 3 and we never hear from him again. And he’s too big of a deal to 47 for IO to regulate him to a side character status like Agent Smith.
So, that’s one of the main reasons I think he’ll be offed. But, there are other reasons to consider.
Ok, so bear with me because this is going to sound:
Sickness theory:
Part 1: In HITMAN, it seems IO are setting up that there’s something wrong with 6.
Watch the Colorado end cutscene carefully: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLQWUPE6eY4
At 0:21, and again at 1:18, the Shadow Client sniffs.
Ok, this seems like no big deal, right? Yes, if he were a real person. But you have to remember, this was voice recorded and animated. So that means the sniffing is intentional.
If I had a VA sniff like that in recording and I didn’t want it, I’d ask them to go again so I get a clean read. Plus, animated cutscenes like that ain’t cheap. This was written, directed and animated with intent.
So, why? Maybe 6 just has a cold. Ok, but why go to the trouble and expense to show that to the player? To show us that 6 is not invulnerable.
47 is the best clone. 6 (if a clone) is from another series. So, there’s something wrong with him. He’s not as good as 47. Not as fit. Not as healthy.
So, maybe he knows he has limited time left. So he decided now is the time to take Providence down. He started with Cobb, but Cobb might not have been his catalyst after all.
Part 2: Now, Hitman 2 cutscenes were not fully animated, so you couldn’t add the sniffs - it would sound like a VA error when you don’t see it on the character’s expression. So, we need some other clues.
In Hitman 2, we see Subject 6 is not as beefy as 47. Yes, he definitely has muscle, but he’s not built like our boy. He’s also shorter than 47, and he looks older than 47.
Sacrifice theory:
I’m not as sure about this one, but 6 could die in some way that would dial up the angst for 47, because 47 is at his best as a character when he’s miserable about something. Losing the only “family” he didn’t kill himself would be devastating.
Maybe Diana would take her parents’ death out on 6, and set him up? Maybe Providence would catch up to 6? Maybe 6 will save 47 or Diana somehow and die, dramatically and redeemed?
Or maybe he’ll die from his mysterious sickness anyway, and it will still be angsty for all involved.
DISCLAIMER: These are my own theories, and I will gladly be proven wrong.
