#ufconfox24

[mmarelated]

UFC on Fox 24: Ronaldo Souza vs. Robert Whittaker

[writingsubmissions]

Fights to Make: UFC Kansas City

Demetrious Johnson (beat Wilson Reis) vs. Cody Garbrandt: Well, that was great. Demetrious Johnson has obviously been one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world for a few years now, but few performances put all his skills on display as much as this one did - Johnson just outclassed Reis on the feet, sniping away with strikes and getting out of the way just as Reis tried to hit him, and then took things to the ground, pretty much running through a high-level black belt and submitting him with ease in the third round. So, Johnson’s pretty much cleaned out the division and really has nothing left to do besides break Anderson Silva’s record for title defenses, so why not do a big bout against current bantamweight champ Garbrandt, whether or not he loses his belt to T.J. Dillashaw in July. Garbrandt floated the idea himself, and he’s a dangerous and interesting challenge for Johnson, probably his biggest since his days at bantamweight against Dominick Cruz. And really, since UFC seems to have no interest in a third fight pitting Johnson against deserving top contender Joseph Benavidez - who’s stuck at the moment fighting Ben Nguyen in Australia, I don’t really know where else you go.

Rose Namajunas (beat Michelle Waterson) vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk/Jessica Andrade (May 13) winner: Well, that was pretty much the performance everyone was waiting for from Namajunas - admittedly, Waterson helped her out in the first round by going for that dumb head-and-arm throw that seems to result in every strawweight getting their back taken, but the second round saw Namajunas pretty much piece up Waterson on the feet before jumping onto the fight-winning choke. I’d like to see Namajunas flash this form a few more times before giving her a title shot, since both Jedrzejczyk and Andrade would probbaly be heavy favorites to destroy her, but she’s obviously the top contender at the moment, so that’s the fight to make.

Robert Whittaker (beat Jacare Souza) vs. Gegard Mousasi: Well, that was something. There was a contingent of fans that saw this as a trap fight for Jacare, but I don’t think even they expected one so one-sided, as Whittaker looked amazing here, shucking off Jacare when he went for takedowns (which was my biggest question) and then just piecing up the human alligator on the feet before scoring the stoppage. I know I called for a Mousasi/Weidman rematch last week, but with the footage of Weidman being so out of it during the stoppage, I’m comfortable just calling that a Mousasi win. Plus that makes the next fight for everyone involved obvious - both fights saw guys take their place as top contenders at the expense of their opponents, so it’s only natural to do Whittaker against Mousasi and...

Jacare Souza (lost to Robert Whittaker) vs. Chris Weidman: ...Jacare versus Weidman, as both guys could use a rehab win over the other. Plus, amazingly, it’s a fight that hasn’t been done before, so even better.

Michelle Waterson (lost to Rose Namajunas) vs. Felice Herrig/Justine Kish (Jun. 25) winner: Well, that loss to Namajunas pretty much exposed all the problems with Waterson’s game, namely her risk-taking when she decides to grapple and her being undersized for the division. She gave up bad position on the ground, got handled on the feet...just not great all around. Frankly, I kind of expected something similar in her fight with Paige VanZant, but she at least got past that, and she’s marketable enough that she should probably be kept fairly strong matchup-wise. Hell, even though I don’t think she’s ever going to really be a top contender talent-wise, I could even see her working her way to a title shot in one of those scenarios where she’s just the best fighter riding a winning streak. Anyway, either Felice Herrig or Justine Kish would make for a fun, winnable fight (and Herrig has one of those personalities that could make it a decently big deal fight on Fox with a win) for Waterson, so let’s try that to keep Mrs. Hottie relevant.

Renato Moicano (beat Jeremy Stephens) vs. Dennis Bermudez: It wasn’t always pretty, but Moicano got a big win over Stephens here - the Brazilian prospect’s career looked to be stalling a bit thanks to injuries, but a win over a top-five contender and a tough veteran suddenly makes him some new blood in the featherweight picture. I wouldn’t rush him towards a title shot just yet, but another top-ten fighter in Dennis Bermudez would make for an interesting matchup, as Bermudez can probably mix in some more wrestling than Stephens did, and provide a little bit of a different look to make sure Moicano is ready for the big time.

Jeremy Stephens (lost to Renato Moicano) vs. Gilbert Melendez: It wasn’t a one-sided loss, but Stephens was definitely fighting from behind the whole fight against Moicano, who looked excellent here. Apparently the slot for Moicano was originally slated to be Gilbert Melendez, and might as well do that fight here anyway - it just sort of adds to the interest of a bout between the two now that Stephens also desperately needs a win to get his career back on track.

Aljamain Sterling (beat Augusto Mendes) vs. Thomas Almeida: This was a big win for Sterling in the rare fight where both guys looked great - Sterling, who desperately needed a win here to stay a contender after dropping two close fights, finally showed a much-improved striking game, but it almost wasn’t enough against Mendes, who also had a career-best performance. But with the win, Sterling’s back on the fringes of contendership, and can pretty much be matched up with anyone else in what’s a suddenly deep bantamweight picture. Let’s go with Almeida - it’s a bit of a weird matchup in that both guys should probably be cultivated towards a title shot separately, but it’d be a fun fight and both guys are in about the same place, so why not?

Alexander Volkov (beat Roy Nelson) vs. Stefan Struve: It wasn’t a particularly inspiring win, and I still don’t really think Volkov has much of a ceiling, but he’s still fairly young, and he’s 2-0 in the UFC, so the former Bellator champ probably counts as interesting young blood in the heavyweight division. Let’s go the obvious weird route and put 6-7 Volkov against 7-footer Struve just for the freak show aspect, because come on, that’s what we all want, right?

Rashid Magomedov (beat Bobby Green) vs. Evan Dunham: Well, Rashid Magomedov got back to his winning ways in about the most Rashid Magomedov way possible - putting on a good technical performance, but not really leaving much of an imprint on the fight, and almost giving away a decision through sheer lack of inactivity. But a win’s a win, and Magomedov remains a fringe top-fifteen guy, so I guess you might as well keep giving him pretty solid opposition to move him up the ladder - let’s go with Dunham, who seems to be the well-rounded gatekeeper for everyone to get into that top fifteen.

Bobby Green (lost to Rashid Magomedov) vs. Anthony Pettis: Props to Green - his bullshit-heavy style is getting less and less effective in terms of damage, but he almost stole two scorecards here. We’re hitting the point of diminishing returns, so Green is as good a choice as any for a bounce-back fight for Anthony Pettis to return to lightweight - the former champ needs to string together some fun wins, and Green checks both boxes.

Wilson Reis (lost to Demetrious Johnson) vs. Ian McCall: Well, Reis got outclassed by the flyweight kingpin, so it’s back to the giant morass at 125 with him - flyweight’s a deep division, since everyone’s pretty good, but UFC also doesn’t have a particularly huge roster, so it’s a bit troublesome to keep making fresh matchups for all these solid vets. If Ian McCall is ever going to fight again (since his fights continually fall through), Reis makes for as fun a next fight as any to try and keep sorting out the division.

Tim Elliott (beat Louis Smolka) vs. Magomed Bibulatov: Elliott’s return to Missouri went quite well - his fight with Smolka was quite awesome, a non-stop blur of action, and he scored a one-sided decision win when all was said and done. Russia’s Bibulatov is probably the next big challenger for Demetrious Johnson on the horizon - assuming UFC doesn’t suddenly get concerned with Bibulatov’s ties to Chechen dictator Ramzan Kadyron - so Elliott’s a fine next step up to get Bibulatov working towards a title shot.

Roy Nelson (lost to Alexander Volkov) vs. Todd Duffee: Nelson’s still 2-2 in his last four, somehow, but he looks absolutely done - he has none of his surprising athleticism left, he can’t really get his knockout overhand going, and even his grappling game has gotten pretty ineffective, as Nelson is forced to pretty much do nothing if he wants to continue having control on the ground. I wouldn’t be surprised if UFC cut Nelson, but if he gets another fight, looking at the roster...I guess go with Duffee? It’ll be a weird throwdown.

Tom Duquesnoy (beat Patrick Williams) vs. Michinori Tanaka: Well, Duquesnoy mostly cashed in on his hype as the best prospect in the world - he did have some trouble early with Williams’s pressure, but Duquesnoy was never really in danger, just unable to get his game going. And then once Williams tired by late in the first round, it was off to the races, with Duquesnoy eventually finishing the fight with some of his brutal standing elbows. I wouldn’t rush Duquesnoy up the ladder just yet, as I’m still curious to see how he handles better and better grapplers - to that end, let’s go with Japanese grappler Tanaka for his next test.

Augusto Mendes (lost to Aljamain Sterling) vs. Johnny Eduardo/Matthew Lopez (Jun. 3) winner: Well, despite the loss, Mendes looked awesome here, as he gave a much-improved Sterling a tough fight, showing off his awesome BJJ game and some solid striking that continues to impress. At 34 years old, I’m fine continuing to throw Mendes into the fire rather than waiting for him to develop, since he’s more or less passed every test - either veteran striker Eduardo or submission whiz Lopez would make for a fun fight that would keep Mendes relevant, so I like that as a next move to keep Mendes’s career momentum going.

Zak Cummings (beat Nathan Coy) vs. Emil Meek/Nordine Taleb (May 28) winner: Cummings pretty much ran through Coy, as expected, and the Kansas City native remains one of the more underrated fighters on the roster - he’ll almost surely never be a contender, but he’s above these sort of tune-up fights and is a solid mid-tier action fighter/gatekeeper. To that end, Meek and Taleb square off in Stockholm, and either winner would make for a fun fight - Cummings/Taleb would be a solid prelim fight, while Cummings against Meek would be a great test for Meek to see if he can keep moving up the ladder.

Anthony Smith (beat Andrew Sanchez) vs. Thiago Santos: Well, that was unexpected in multiple ways - both that Smith beat highly touted prospect Santos, and that Smith seems to be showing some surprising comeback ability. He’s always had a rep as a guy who wilts, but both here and against Elvis Mutapcic, the Nebraskan has shown the sudden ability to fight back from danger and get an unexpected win. Amazingly, this may be the start of a little bit of a charge up the middleweight ranks - let’s go with Smith against Santos for some explosive violence that could get the winner into the top fifteen.

Ketlen Vieira (beat Ashlee Evans-Smith) vs. Alexis Davis/Cindy Dandois (Apr. 22) winner: Vieira looked much better here than she did in her UFC debut - Evans-Smith is a good fighter, and Vieira pretty much kept her at range standing and did a solid job of mostly neutralizing things when things got to wrestling. Vieira suddenly looks like a talent to watch, so I’d keep moving her up the ladder - veteran grapplers Davis and Dandois would each make for a solid step up in competition.

Louis Smolka (lost to Tim Elliott) vs. Hector Sandoval/Matt Schnell (Apr. 22) winner: Smolka’s loss to Elliott somewhat ironically leaves the Hawaiian in the same position Elliott was in right before the end of his first UFC tenure - Smolka’s a top-ten or top-fifteen talent, but the UFC flyweight division pretty much has no easy wins, so Smolka suddenly finds himself with three straight losses, even if none of them are particularly bad ones. Smolka deserves another shot in the UFC, and either Sandoval or Schnell would make for a fine attempt at a bounce-back fight, as they’re both fun fighters, but at a low enough level that Smolka should hopefully be able to get a win.

Ashlee Evans-Smith (lost to Ketlen Vieira) vs. Lauren Murphy: Evans-Smith’s loss to Vieira was more about Vieira looking good than Evans-Smith looking bad, even if it did seemingly put a ceiling on the Californian as a tough mid-tier grinder rather than a contender, at least at the moment. Murphy’s sort of in the same spot, hanging around the middle of the division while being a tough out, so what the hell, that’s a fun fight to make, even if I’d be sad to see either go on a losing streak.

Devin Clark (beat Jake Collier) vs. Ed Herman: Clark just keeps getting experience, basically - he’s still pretty young, he’s a talented athlete, and he’s still raw enough that I have a ton of concern moving him too much up the ladder. He’d make for a good fight against Herman, since it’d be a classic young athlete versus crafty vet matchup to see exactly where Clark is currently at.

Andrew Sanchez (lost to Anthony Smith) vs. Vitor Miranda/Marvin Vettori (Jun. 25) winner: I’m still high on Sanchez as a prospect, since he took the balance of this fight, but leaving himself open for a late finish showed that cardio might wind up being his fatal flaw. He’s still someone I’d continue to keep an eye on, though, so I like the idea of putting him against Miranda or Vettori next to keep his career from stalling too much - either guy would be a tough out where a win would basically nullify the disappointment of this loss.

Patrick Williams (lost to Tom Duquesnoy) vs. Martin Bravo: Williams gave uber-prospect Duquesnoy some early troubles, but gassed as badly as you’ll ever see a lighter-weight fighter do, at one point even stopping to put his hands on his knees and just breathe. Williams is apparently going to combat this issue by moving up to 145, so he’s make for a fun gatekeeper opponent for TUF: Latin America 3 winner Martin Bravo, who’s fallen off the map since winning the season in November.

Jake Collier (lost to Devin Clark) vs. Gadzhimurad Antigulov/Joachim Christensen (May 28) loser: Collier made for a fun gatekeeper against Clark - he’s pretty much all-offense, no-defense, and while he can probably improve a bit himself, he does mostly seem like roster fodder best used in an action fight. Both Antigulov and Christensen are fairly fun guys, so whoever loses that would make for a solid enough use of Collier going forward.

Nathan Coy (lost to Zak Cummings) vs. Sheldon Westcott: It’s been nice that Coy got his UFC shot years after anyone expected it, but dude, stop getting choked unconscious - Coy is 1-2 with the promotion, and both losses have seen him go to sleep rather than tap. Still, Coy’s a tough veteran grinder, and even though Westcott is coming off a win, I like the idea of the matchup - Westcott is basically a giant submission artist who either gets the first-round sub or tires badly, and Coy is exactly the kind of veteran grinder who can make that difficult.

[thatjonnyhodds-blog]

Headkick combo. Take it to the ground. Cling to her like a spider monkey. Go for the neck. Adjust the grip. Sink in the choke. Say goodnight. Rose Namajunas by submission, R2 #ufconfox24 #ufckansascity #repost #mma #bjj (at St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador)

[iamnamrok]

Repost @mmalongislandmagazine) Fights and schedule for #UFCKansasCity #UFConFox24 #UFCFightnight #itstime #ufc #MMA #mightymouse #jacare #waterson #aljo #bigcountry

[thecryptonline]

Tonight's picks for #ufconfox24 this event is pretty stacked with some great fighters. Go @mightymouse125 you got this! #ufc #mma #ufconfox #foxsports #fighting #boxing #jiujitsu #brazilianjiujitsu #bjj #karate #taekwondoe

[aaronch15]

#ufc #follow #sportsblog #sports #blog #followforfollow #likesforlikes #blogger #ufconfox #ufconfox24 #mma #fight #predictions #preview #blogging #website #sportswebsite

[harveycast]

#Repost @mmajunkiedotcom ・・・ @lilheathenmma is intense as ever going into his 25th (!!!) UFC fight at #UFCKansasCity #UFConFOX24 Video by @1khathaway of USA TODAY Sports

[writingsubmissions]

UFC on Fox 24 Preview

WHAT'S HAPPENING: *So, UFC 210 was probably the best card of the year thus far, never really dragging throughout a very fun card, but the focus is going to be on just how weird the damn thing was. The light heavyweight title fight between Daniel Cormier and Anthony Johnson started weird at the weigh-ins; Cormier shockingly came in 1.2 pounds overweight, which seemingly meant that after all this, Cormier had lost his title on the scale. But New York has a rule on the books - which nobody was really aware of - that competitors in a title fight have a second shot at weighing in within two hours of weighing in the first time. But Cormier only needed ninety seconds to weigh in again and suddenly come in at 205...kinda - Cormier needed to commission to bring out the towel, and very obviously leaned on said towel, using what's apparently an old wrestling trick to suddenly take a few pounds off the scale. Adding to the weirdness, Johnson then weighed in at 203.8, 1.2 pounds less than he needed to - and given that Cormier had suddenly lost 1.2 pounds, a lot of people also ran with the angle that the commission had somehow adjusted the scale. But anyway, the fight was on, and the broad outline of it went very similarly to their first meeting; Johnson had some success early striking, even apparently breaking Cormier's nose at one point, but eventually crumbled and got tapped out, in this case in the second round. But Johnson's gameplan just, well, seemed dumb - Cormier teased leading up to this fight that he was going to strike with Johnson, and everyone sort of laughed since he should know better, but instead Johnson one-upped him by deciding to wrestle with Cormier, which just pretty much handed the champ the fight. Even Johnson's corner, per corner audio, was wondering what the hell he was doing and just seemed pissed off. Adding to the strangeness, Johnson suddenly retired after the fight, apparently to take some job with the Los Angeles Rams - while I'm kind of thrilled to not have to deal with the weird feelings that Johnson's domestic violence history brings up whenever he fights, this does further gut what might be UFC's thinnest division. But then Cormier sort of saved things, giving an excellent post-fight interview where he's finally started to lean in to people hating him for whatever reason, calling out both Jimi Manuwa and Jon Jones, each of which were cageside. Despite Dana White constantly saying otherwise, one assumes Cormier defending against Jones is the next step, although it looks like it won't be taking place in July as most people would've hoped. *Things didn't get any less strange with the co-main, which saw Gegard Mousasi beat Chris Weidman via controversial stoppage. It was a hell of a fight, with Weidman mostly getting the better of things, but as the fight was beginning to turn in Mousasi's favor, Mousasi hit a knee that could've been illegal, so the referee temporarily stopped the fight, and then things got weird. So, New York is one of the states that has adopted the new rules, which state that both palms must be down in order for an opponent to be grounded. Weidman was attempting to become a grounded opponent, but right before the knee connected, Mousasi essentially lifted Weidman up just enough that his hand was not touching the ground, which thus made the knee perfectly legal. Now, I don't blame the ref for stopping the fight when he did, since even in slow motion with multiple angles on replay, this was all by a razor-thin margin. So, well...then what? The fight was stopped by a legal blow, but not because of any danger, but because the referee thought the blow was illegal, and it's also very unclear if New York actually allows the use of instant replay to factor into this decision. So, theoretically, I guess the fight should have either been called a no contest or just continued exactly where it left off? Anyway, nobody really knew what was going on (and, frankly, I don't blame them), but this all became moot when the commission apparently deemed Weidman unfit to continue, giving Mousasi the win by TKO. This was all poorly explained live, but a few days later, thanks to corner audio, it came out that Weidman apparently thought it was February, in which case...good stoppage, I suppose. Though the whole circumstances around the stoppage were weird enough and, frankly, and this feels somewhat horrible to say, fighters have probably come back from a lot worse than however concussed Weidman was. At the very least, this throws Mousasi into the bucket as yet another middleweight contender getting screwed over by Michael Bisping's MMA fantasy camp title reign - and just in time for the Dutchman to become a free agent - plus, hey, if they want to do a rematch, the upcoming show on Long Island would be a perfect place to do it, although I'd understand if neither guy wanted to see the New York commission again. *And the third fight from the top almost didn't happen, thanks to - and this is a new one - breast implants, as New York temporarily pulled Pearl Gonzalez from her fight against Cynthia Calvillo because of her fake breasts. This all got super-weird - from a practical standpoint, it's unclear why New York waited until after weigh-ins to find out that Gonzalez has implants, but people were more focused on speculating if Miesha Tate, who fought on the Madison Square Garden card, has fake breasts and was allowed to fight - but the state eventually realized that the rule, as written, only applies to boxing, so the fight was back on. This got Gonzalez some viral buzz, but sadly she couldn't really capitalize, as this looked every bit the showcase fight for Calvillo that it was on paper, with the Californian eventually getting a third-round submission. UFC seems firmly in the Calvillo business, as Dana White was comparing her to Conor McGregor and Joanna Jedrzejczyk during the post-fight presser, which, um, seems like a bit much. Calvillo's a talented prospect, and does have some personality, but this really does seem like a case where UFC's gonna rush her into the wood chipper way too soon. *Pretty much every fight had something interesting come out of it, so I don't really know where to start, so let's just run down the card in order. Thiago Alves had his best performance since coming back from a two-year injury layoff in 2014, winning a decision over Patrick Cote - Alves looks old cosmetically, but was able to work his leg kick and power striking game to pretty great effect here, suggesting he has a few more years left as a gatekeeper. Cote retired after the fight, ending a pretty underrated career as a Canadian MMA pioneer; Cote was actually close to career-best form just a year ago, but between getting knocked out by Donald Cerrone and getting dropped a few times here, his signature durability was seemingly starting to fade, so this retirement probably comes at the right time. Charles Oliveira, forced to move up to lightweight, shockingly just ran through former Bellator champ Will Brooks, getting a takedown, working for Brooks's back, and tapping him out in two and a half minutes flat - this probably, and suddenly, ends any hopes of Brooks as a future UFC champ, as this looked like a layup of a style matchup, and who knows what this means for Oliveira, who's had a remarkably inconsistent career. But whether this was just an on night for "Do Bronx" or a sign that he's much stronger at 155, pretty much everyone agrees Oliveira should give lightweight a shot...except for Oliveira, who kept insisting he wants to move back down to featherweight. *The prelims were headlined by two super-impressive performances; the "main event prelim" was Myles Jury running through Mike De La Torre to notch his first win at featherweight after a long layoff, but the most impressive performance on the entire card may have come from welterweight prospect Kamaru Usman, who absolutely shellacked Sean Strickland. This figured to be a fairly even fight, as Strickland has been kind of a crafty survivor, but Usman continued his wrecking ball path up the 170 ladder. Usman just immediately established his wrestling game, taking Strickland down and beating him up for most of the first round, and from there that seemingly just left Strickland unable to do anything but react, as Usman just mixed up striking and takedowns while just dominating the fight. Guys have definitely been flashier coming up, but it's been a while since we've seen a guy who's just broken everyone coming up the ladder like Usman; I'm interested to see how Usman's game holds together against someone who can stop his wrestling, but I'm also unsure who that opponent is. Two New York-based prospects looked excellent - featherweight Shane Burgos continued his ascent with a solid win and eventual finish over Charles Rosa, while lightweight Gregor Gillespie looked awesome, knocking out Andrew Holbrook in just twenty seconds. Gillespie is probably a natural 145er given his frame, but the former wrestling champ hasn't had any problems taking out bigger opponents yet. Patrick Cummins beat Jan Blachowicz in a fun fight that was probably the most meaningless on the card, since both guys just sort of held serve - Cummins's lack of durability still means he can lose at any time, although Blachowicz was surprisingly unable to capitalize on rocking him early, and Blachowicz's complete lack of a gas tank causes his game to slowly fall apart. Buffalo's Desmond Green had a huge performance in his UFC debut in his hometown - he was a bit of an odd signing since he's been a boring grinder for most of his career, but here he actually looked pretty solid on the feet and got a decision win over Josh Emmett that was surprisingly watchable. Katlyn Chookagian and Irene Aldana had a fun fight that was the closest on the card, with Chookagian getting the nod by the narrowest of margins, and the card started with what was probably the worst fight on the card, as debuting flyweight Magomed Bibulatov coasted to a win over Jenel Lausa. Bibulatov's an excellent prospect, and I figured he'd blow through Lausa (though I seem to be lower on Lausa than most), but instead he just sort of cruised to a victory and never really threatened for a finish. Bibulatov should move quickly through the division, and is earmarked as a guy who could eventually challenge Demetrious Johnson, but of course since this is MMA and we can't have nice things, this all comes as rumors swirl of Bibulatov being a trigger-man for Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen warlord currently in the news for setting up concentration camps for homosexuals. Great. *USADA strikes again! Kelvin Gastelum's win over Vitor Belfort looked like a starmaking performance, and earned him a shot at Anderson Silva in June, but that's all fallen apart after Gastelum apparently failed an in-competition weed test. I mean, the man was speaking Portuguese in his post-fight interview, we should've known he was high. So yeah, the whole thing's dumb, even though I wonder why Gastelum was apparently smoking enough weed that close to the fight to trigger this failure, since it seems like USADA's raised those thresholds to fairly reasonable levels. Anyway, Gastelum has been pulled from his fight with Silva, and the win over Belfort may wind up being overturned. Whole thing's dumb! *TUF 26 is happening for some reason. ------ BOOKINGS: *Not a ton going on in terms of bookings this week. The biggest thing is probably the above, where UFC is seeking an opponent for Anderson Silva at UFC 212 with Kelvin Gastelum out. Luke Rockhold and Vitor Belfort have apparently been proposed and shot down, and Silva apparently wants a Nick Diaz rematch, which, hell, why not. We'll see what all parties involved come up with. Holly Holm and Bethe Correia will headline the June show from Singapore, as UFC continues to try and find someone fairly credible that Holm can easily beat. I'll kind of laugh if Bethe just out-wrestles her, since, well, she actually could, even if doing it over five rounds is a big ask. (Oh, and yes, Holm moving to 135 means that Cris Cyborg and Germaine de Randamie currently appear to be the entire women's 145 division.) The Stockholm card added two bouts at welterweight, as exciting British prospect Darren Till faces...unexciting German prospect Jessin Ayari, and Emil Meek returns from a big win over Jordan Mein to face Nordine Taleb. And the big July Vegas weekend is further taking shape - there will apparently be no Thursday fight pass show, so it'll just be a TUF finale on Friday, then UFC 213 on Saturday. The Cody Garbrandt/T.J. Dillashaw bantamweight title fight will take place at UFC 213, rather than headline the TUF show, which was a bit up in the air since those two are the coaches, and the UFC 213 show also added Travis Browne trying to get a much-needed win against Russian submission expert Aleksei Oleinik. ----- ROSTER CUTS: 1) Anthony Johnson (22-6 overall, 13-6 UFC, last fought 4/8/17, L vs. Daniel Cormier): Well, that was weird. And that's a fitting epitaph for Anthony "Rumble" Johnson's career, which apparently ended with him suddenly retiring to take a job with the Los Angeles Rams after crumbling, once again, in a title fight to Daniel Cormier. Johnson debuted in UFC about a decade ago, and it's crazy to think that he was doing so at welterweight - though his gigantic size once he dehydrated obviously made him one of the scariest guys in the division, as he obliterated guys like Tommy Speer and Kevin Burns. An early submission loss to Rich Clementi was a bit of a surprise, but eventually emerged as a bit of a pattern, as Josh Koscheck also got Rumble to crumble and give up his neck, although that latter fight had some built-in excuses, as Koscheck faked getting poked in the eye and generally just bullshitted his way to surviving Johnson's initial onslaught. Honestly, for as many jokes as there have been about "Rumbleweight" back when Johnson was a giant welterweight, guys like John Lineker and Charles Oliveira have made Johnson look like a saint when it comes to making weight, as he only missed it twice in ten welterweight fights. But, well, then there was Johnson's one-off move to middleweight, where he blew weight by twelve pounds and lost in classic Rumble fashion - completely falling apart and giving up his neck for a rear naked joke - and the whole thing was bad enough that UFC just let Rumble go. Johnson then finally got his act together, moving up to light heavyweight and knocking fools out, then had a super-impressive UFC return, completely shutting down then-surging contender Phil Davis to basically take his shine as the next big thing at light heavyweight. But, things were a bit darker outside the cage - I don't know when the initial stuff surfaced, but I remember whispers around the time of Johnson's return about some domestic violence stuff in his past, and after his subsequent win over Antonio Rogerio Nogueira via brutal knockout, another incident surfaced that required a full UFC investigation. Of course, these investigations are pretty much for show, and Johnson was found innocent, but it started kind of a pattern - for every brutal, exciting knockout win that Johnson would rack up inside the cage, there'd be some incident like the one where he apparently started tormenting a housewife who was doing yoga where he wanted to train in a gym. Career-wise, Johnson was sort of the last big fight left for Jon Jones as Jones cleared out the division, but that never wound up happening - it was slated for May of 2015, but fell apart after Jones had his hit-and-run and got stripped of his belt, and Cormier made Rumble crumble twice more, both to win the vacant belt, and then in last weekend's rematch after Johnson worked his way towards another shot. Given Johnson's history, I can't particularly wish him well, but I just hope he kind of gets whatever his problems are out via whatever he's doing with the Rams, if only for everyone else's sake. 2) Patrick Cote (23-11 overall, 10-11 UFC, last fought 4/8/17, L vs. Thiago Alves): Cote probably picked the right time to retire, since his legendary chin started to show cracks that were probably only getting worse, but I'm sad to see him go out with a loss, if only because he seemed so happy once he finally got his UFC record over .500 last year. Cote was a pioneer of Canadian MMA, alongside fellow Montreal native Georges St. Pierre, but he started off his UFC career 0-4, first with a one-off fight at light heavyweight when UFC needed a late-notice opponent for Tito Ortiz, then losses to Joe Doerksen and Joe Riggs, then a submission loss to Travis Lutter in the final of the TUF 4 "Comeback" season. But that got Cote's foot in the door, and from there he rang up four wins and, surprisingly, got a title shot against Anderson Silva, even though that was more thanks to a lack of options rather than anything else. And that fight was a bit of a disaster - this was near the beginning of the period where Silva decided to just toy with opponents and entertain himself rather than the crowd, and after about two rounds of that, Cote stepped wrong and basically fell to the ground as his knee exploded. Alright then. Cote then missed all of 2009 and half of 2010 before returning from around a two-year layoff, but found his way out of the UFC shortly thereafter following losses to Alan Belcher and Tom Lawlor. From there, Cote continued his run of going undefeated outside the UFC and earned his way back, and then further established his niche as a fun stalwart whenever UFC ran north of the border. And in the last few years, Cote even seemed to be improving a bit - his win over Josh Burkman was great fun leading to a devastating knockout, and I still find his January 2016 win over Ben Saunders to be a highlight, as Cote basically just went full hockey fight, grabbed Saunders by the head, and just punched him until he went down. And that win, over thirteen years into Cote's MMA career, finally got his UFC record over .500, at 10-9. But, since this is MMA and nothing can ever end nicely, that went out the window at the end of Cote's career - Donald Cerrone became the first person to knock him out that June, and then there was this loss where he lost to a suddenly spry Thiago Alves, and even got dropped a few times. A sad end to one of the consensus nice guys of the sport, but he'll be fine, as he's got a gig as UFC's French color commentator and can probably trade in on his status as a popular Canadian vet. ----- UPCOMING UFC SHOWS: 4/22 - UFC Fight Night 108 - Nashville, TN - Artem Lobov vs. Cub Swanson, Al Iaquinta vs. Diego Sanchez 5/13 - UFC 211 - Dallas, TX - Stipe Miocic ( c ) vs. Junior dos Santos, Joanna Jedrzejczyk ( c ) vs. Jessica Andrade, Demian Maia vs. Jorge Masvidal, Frankie Edgar vs. Yair Rodriguez, Eddie Alvarez vs. Dustin Poirier 5/28 - UFC Fight Night 109 - Stockholm, Sweden - Alexander Gustafsson vs. Glover Teixeira 6/3 - UFC 212 - Rio De Janeiro, Brazil - Jose Aldo ( c ) vs. Max Holloway (ic), Claudia Gadelha vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz 6/10 - UFC Fight Night 110 - Auckland, New Zealand - Mark Hunt vs. Derrick Lewis, Derek Brunson vs. Daniel Kelly 6/17 - UFC Fight Night 111 - Singapore, Singapore - Bethe Correia vs. Holly Holm, Colby Covington vs. Dong Hyun Kim, Rafael dos Anjos vs. Tarec Saffiedine 6/25 - UFC Fight Night 112 - Oklahoma City, OK - Michael Chiesa vs. Kevin Lee, B.J. Penn vs. Dennis Siver, Tim Boetsch vs. Johny Hendricks, Ilir Latifi vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira 7/8 - UFC 213 - Las Vegas, NV - Cody Garbrandt ( c ) vs. T.J. Dillashaw, Donald Cerrone vs. Robbie Lawler, Alistair Overeem vs. Fabricio Werdum 7/22 - UFC on Fox 25 - Uniondale, NY - Chan Sung Jung vs. Ricardo Lamas ----- UFC on Fox 24 - April 15, 2017 - Sprint Center - Kansas City, Missouri This is the second of a pretty fun three-week run of UFC cards, and honestly, this might be the deepest top-to-bottom of the bunch, as we've got a bunch of interesting fights with big consequences, and some top-flight prospects (including possibly the best one in the world) on the undercard. Plus, it was nice to see UFC pull a rabbit out of their hat like the old days, before having so many cards and such strained fighter relations made it hard to put big short-notice fights together - as UFC was stacking up cards like the one next week in Nashville, or UFC 211 next month, it was looking like this card would wind up being an afterthought; the Namajunas/Waterson fight was the only main card-worthy bout announced, and while the Sprint Center had listed Doo Ho Choi against Renan Barao as the main event, that apparently fell apart before becoming official. But then UFC eventually fleshed out an excellent card, with a title fight and an excellent middleweight tilt, and slowly filled things out with interesting fights like Volkov/Nelson and Sterling/Mendes. So all in all an excellent card, particularly for free TV. MAIN CARD (Fox - 8:00 PM ET): Flyweight Championship: (C) Demetrious Johnson vs. (#3) Wilson Reis Women's Strawweight: (#4) Rose Namajunas vs. (#6) Michelle Waterson Middleweight: (#3) Jacare Souza vs. (#6) Robert Whittaker Featherweight: (#5) Jeremy Stephens vs. Renato Moicano PRELIMINARY CARD (Fox - 6:00 PM ET): Heavyweight: (#11) Alexander Volkov vs. Roy Nelson Bantamweight: Tom Duquesnoy vs. Patrick Williams Lightweight: Bobby Green vs. Rashid Magomedov Flyweight: (#9) Tim Elliott vs. (#12) Louis Smolka PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC Fight Pass - 4:00 PM ET): Bantamweight: (#8) Aljamain Sterling vs. Augusto Mendes Light Heavyweight: Devin Clark vs. Jake Collier Middleweight: Andrew Sanchez vs. Anthony Smith Welterweight: Nathan Coy vs. Zak Cummings Women's Bantamweight: (#13) Ashlee Evans-Smith vs. Ketlen Vieira THE RUNDOWN: Demetrious Johnson (25-2-1 overall, 13-1-1 UFC, 2-1 WEC) vs. Wilson Reis (22-6 overall, 6-2 UFC, 5-4 Bellator): After a run of flyweight kingpin Demetrious Johnson being forced to main event pay-per-views (often after other planned main events fell through), it's nice to have him main event another Fox show, where we can just sort of focus on how great he is rather than his lack of box office success. And UFC has settled into a groove as far as promoting him, focusing on his status as the pound-for-pound king and complete dominance over his division - in fact, the big angle here is that this win would give Johnson ten straight title defenses, tying him with Anderson Silva's middleweight reign for the longest title run in UFC history. And Johnson hasn't really been tested as champ - Joseph Benavidez figured to be Johnson's big rival, and is still pretty solidly the number two flyweight in the world, but after their narrow fight that saw Johnson become the first-ever flyweight champ, Johnson iced him for a first-round knockout in the rematch, and UFC has never gone back to the well for a third fight. Olympic gold medalist Henry Cejudo was the guy most had earmarked to possibly unseat Johnson, but about a year ago, Johnson also put an end to that via first-round stoppage, even as Cejudo has also cemented himself among the division elite. Hell, in Johnson's last fight, everyone gushed about how Tim Elliott gave Johnson way more trouble than anyone had in years - but when you step back, you realize that even then Johnson only needed about a round to adjust, and wound up earning two 49-46 scorecards and a 49-45. So Johnson just keeps lording over the division, waiting for the Sonnen to his Silva, the McGregor to his Aldo, the guy who'll spark enough of a rivalry to make a money fight - and to his credit, Johnson's shown some more personality in recent years, showing a Dominick Cruz-like sort of matter of fact disdain for his opponents, at least when it comes to their ability to hang with him in the cage. And, well, he's right. So challenger number ten winds up being Wilson Reis, who was initially slated to challenge Johnson this past July, in what was a bit of a weird move at the time - Reis had mostly looked good since cutting down from bantamweight, but was coming off a winning streak of all of one win, a rather dominant victory over Dustin Ortiz. But Reis was probably the best guy left in the division that Johnson hasn't beat (save Jussier Formiga, who the timing never seems to work out for), and after a Johnson injury caused that fight to be scrapped, it's probably still true about nine months later. Reis has looked good in his last two fights - instead of Johnson, Reis wound up running through Hector Sandoval this past summer, and his February bout with Ulka Sasaki was a fun win in which both guys looked great - but frankly, Reis, both in UFC and his previous life in Bellator, has always been a guy who's fallen just short of contender status. He's durable, he's well-rounded, and while anyone has a chance in any fight, I don't really see where he has an advantage against Johnson. "Mighty Mouse" does have to lose one of these nights, and when he does it'll probably be in unexpected fashion - it almost kind of has to be - but I don't see Reis being the guy; I'll give the Brazilian the benefit of the doubt and say he hangs tough for all five rounds, but it figures to be another dominant Johnson win, whether by finish or decision. Rose Namajunas (5-3 overall, 3-2 UFC, 2-1 Invicta) vs. Michelle Waterson (14-4 overall, 2-0 UFC, 3-1 Invicta, 1-0 Strikeforce): A really fun fight here that might determine Joanna Jedrzejczyk's next challenger for the strawweight title, particularly if the nod goes to "The Karate Hottie" Michelle Waterson. Waterson's been on the MMA radar for years, and frankly, there was a time years ago when I just sort of dismissed her as a marketing gimmick. And it was easy to do so - she had a fairly middling record, and trying to look up any information on her was more likely to result in an ad for a bikini calendar rather than any video of her fights, but over the last few years, she's pretty much demanded to be taken seriously. Waterson came into Invicta in 2012, cutting down to atomweight (105 pounds), which pretty much turned out to be her natural weight class, and won their title from Jessica Penne in fairly short order. After losing her belt to Herica Tiburcio in a pretty huge upset, Waterson was more or less a no-brainer signing for UFC, given her talented and marketable looks - the only question was how well she'd be able to compete against larger opponents at 115 pounds. And things have gone pretty well so far - after a gimme debut win over Angela Magana, Waterson was on the shelf for almost a year and a half before coming back and beating Paige VanZant in impressive fashion; I know a ton of people dismiss VanZant as purely a marketing creation, but she's still a talented prospect, and I was hugely impressed with how Waterson got the win. VanZant's strength is her deceptive, well, strength and ability in the clinch, and Waterson just pretty much dove in there, powered VanZant to the ground, and then tapped her out. So between what wound up being a showcase main event win on Fox, and UFC subsequently picking up the promotional ball and featuring Waterson where they can over a bunch of different kinds of media, the stage is set for Waterson to become a pretty big deal in the division. But first, she has to get past Rose Namajunas, who's in a bit of a weird spot, even if she's still regarded as one of the best fighters in the division. Namajunas burst onto the scene in Invicta back in 2013, looking like the female version of fellow Milwaukee native (and teammate at the time) Anthony Pettis, a lanky athlete reliant on hitting all sorts of crazy highlight-reel maneuvers, including a flying armbar win over Kathina Catron in just twelve seconds. And Namajunas was probably the big standout coming out of season 20 of TUF, between her fighting style, good looks, and personality, even after losing UFC's inaugural strawweight title fight in pretty one-sided fashion to Carla Esparza. For a bit, it looked like Namajunas was marching her way back towards a title fight after wins over Angela Hill, VanZant, and Tecia Torres, which showed Namajunas starting to rein in her dynamism for a bit of a more functional game, but a loss to Karolina Kowalkiewicz in what was essentially a #1 contender's fight last summer was fairly disheartening - Namajunas was doing well to win rounds boxing from the outside, but kept both putting herself and finding herself in the clinch, where Kowalkiewicz was able to use her deceptive strength to pretty much wreck Namajunas's night. The talent is still there, and I think if Namajunas puts it all together she can still become somewhat of a star, but who knows when that happens - though still just 24 and four years into her career, time is still on her side. This is probably the hardest fight on the night to call, and I think a lot of it depends on if Namajunas can fight a smart fight and keep Waterson from imposing her will. Really, for Namajunas, I think the outlines of the fight look similar to the Kowalkiewicz bout - Namajunas can probably win a decision if she just keeps things at a distance, but if this fight takes place in the clinch, I don't really know which way it goes. Theoretically, Namajunas's size and length should also give her the advantage there, but after seeing how Waterson handled a pretty damn strong athlete in VanZant, I'm not so sure; and while I'd trust Namajunas more to bust out some crazy submission, as far as dictating control in the grappling game, I really could go either way. I easily could see a fight where Namajunas just sort of floats in and out of control and loses a close one, but I think I'll trust in her putting a consistent performance together and taking the decision, though as I said, I expect this to be a close fight and a pretty fun one to boot. Though, that said, I'm not really that sure how good either will do when it comes to facing Jedrzejczyk, but that's another thought for another day. Jacare Souza (24-4 [1] overall, 7-1 UFC, 7-1 Strikeforce) vs. Robert Whittaker (17-4 overall, 8-2 UFC): While my thoughts on Michael Bisping holding up a suddenly stacked middleweight division to have some sort of weird MMA title defense fantasy camp, and UFC enabling him to do so, mostly consist of a whole bunch of profanity, one of the plusses is that we get a bunch of awesome fights as those contenders try to separate themselves from the pack, like this one. He did lose a decision to Yoel Romero in December 2015 that most felt he won, but you could make a case that Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza should be the rightful middleweight contender, since that's his only loss going back to his 2011 Strikeforce title loss to Luke Rockhold. Funnily enough, when UFC absorbed Strikeforce, most people felt it was Jacare, not Rockhold, that had the most potential to be a UFC champ, and that just as easily could have happened if things had worked out differently - Souza's a BJJ stud, and rounded out a dangerous enough striking game to complement those skills, even if he's still at his strongest when the fight goes to the ground. And since that Romero loss and the whole Bisping mess happened, Souza's seemingly been the most eager to just keep fighting - he ran through Vitor Belfort, did the same to Tim Boetsch after a rematch with Rockhold fell through, and looks to do the same against Robert Whittaker, UFC's biggest rising star from Australia. Whittaker was still fairly raw when he won TUF: Smashes, a one-off season pitting England against Australia, and frankly, looked like a bit of a bust as a prospect early on, as he quickly lost back-to-back fights to Court McGee and Stephen Thompson, the latter in brutal fashion. But Whittaker then moved up to middleweight, and everything has suddenly clicked - first came dynamic knockouts of Clint Hester and Brad Tavares, then one-sided wins over Uriah Hall and Rafael Natal, and his last fight was a bit of a star-making performance, winning a crazy one-round sprint of a main event over Derek Brunson in front of the Australian faithful. Whittaker figures to hang around the middleweight elite for a while, but this is his first shot at it, and it's frankly an excellent one - Whittaker's been excellent at adapting a boxing-based style to MMA, and could easily pick Souza apart on the feet, particularly since the Brazilian is 37 and could be slowing down any fight now. But Whittaker's ground game is an open question - of all those guys I named, none of them are really wrestlers save Brunson, who infamously just decided to charge directly at Whittaker for pretty much that entire fight; to find a guy who looked to test Whittaker on the ground, I guess you'd have to go all the way back to Colton Smith in 2013, and, well, Colton Smith wasn't very good. So this seems like what I like to call a fairly binary fight - either Whittaker keeps it standing and probably wins a decision, though I wouldn't count out Jacare, or Souza does eventually find a way to get Whittaker to the ground, and in the absence of any other information, probably blows through him once it gets there. When in doubt, I tend to always favor the wrestler/grappler, and I'll do so again here, so give be Jacare the human alligator by second-round submission, though a win by either guy wouldn't surprise me. Jeremy Stephens (25-13 overall, 12-12 UFC) vs. Renato Moicano (10-0-1 overall, 2-0 UFC): Well, this is going to be a fun one, and the weird matchmaking makes a lot more sense when you find out that this was apparently supposed to be Stephens welcoming former lightweight stalwart Gilbert Melendez to the featherweight division. But instead, it's a huge opportunity for Renato "Moicano" Carneiro, who's had a fairly solid two-fight UFC run. Moicano came into UFC with some hype as a fun, violent prospect, and he showed that in his UFC debut by starching Tom Niinimaki and generally looking like a force to be reckoned with. A slated fight with Mirsad Bektic would've been hot fire, but instead Moicano tore his ACL, and was out of action for about a year before returning last May, winning a narrow split decision over Russian prospect Zubaira Tukhugov. That performance honestly wasn't super-impressive, even though Tukhugov is a decent prospect, so hopefully that was just Moicano shaking off the rust, since he's got a huge test ahead of him in Jeremy Stephens. Conor McGregor pretty much cemented Stephens's MMA legacy as "who the fook is that guy", but that masks the fact that Stephens has been surprisingly successful in his cut down to featherweight - the Iowan spent five years in the UFC at 155 and never really got past action gatekeeper status, but after his cut down in 2013, he's pretty solidly established himself as a top-ten guy and continued as a bit of a knockout threat. Admittedly, he's sort of become a bit of a gatekeeper again, just at a higher level - losses to guys like Frankie Edgar and Cub Swanson have been fairly one-sided - but Stephens does still seem to be improving a bit, even this long into his career, and is pretty much always in the fight. I do sort of trust that UFC matchmakers see something in Moicano that I don't as far as him being able to hang with Stephens, but, well, I don't see it - even though the Brazilian's an interesting prospect and this should be fun, my pick is Stephens by first-round knockout. Alexander Volkov (27-6 overall, 1-0 UFC, 6-3 Bellator) vs. Roy Nelson (22-13 overall, 9-9 UFC): Well, the decline phase is here for Roy Nelson. Big Country's always been a fan favorite, thanks to his highlight-reel knockouts and tubby everyman appearance, even as it's become more and more apparent that he's a dumb guy who only thinks he's a smart guy pretending to be a dumb guy, but years of not taking care of his body have pretty much finally caught up with him, and Nelson's fights lately have pretty much seen him just lurch around the cage looking for that looping knockout punch, or finally relying on his long-dormant high-level grappling game. Though, funnily enough and with all that said, heavyweight is in such a spot that Nelson easily could've gone 3-0 in 2016 - his lone loss to Derrick Lewis was a split decision that could've gone either way, and he earned a decision win over a timid Jared Rosholt and was able to connect with one of those knockout blows against Bigfoot Silva. Still, Silva was pretty much outquicking and outmaneuvering Nelson before that finish, so that...says a lot. Nelson earned a suspension after that fight for bizarrely deciding to kick John McCarthy in the butt over what he felt was a late stoppage, so after being forced to apologize, Nelson looks to connect with the chin of Alexander Volkov. Volkov was a good signing by UFC last year, if not an exceptionally high-ceiling one - a former Bellator champ, the Russian is a 6'7" kickboxer who does a decent job of working at range and in the clinch, but isn't particularly imposing strength-wise for a heavyweight, and is often there to be hit. His UFC debut showed pretty much all his pros and cons, as most people felt it was Tim Johnson that won a narrow decision, but in the end, Volkov got the nod. You know, going into this I was going to commend UFC for putting Nelson against a viable opponent that I actually thought there was a chance he could beat, but thinking about this fight more and more, I'm actually starting to outright favor Nelson. He's ridiculously slow, but Volkov's honestly just as plodding due to his size, and pretty much everything lines up for Nelson to either be able to catch him, either with a punch or for a takedown. If Nelson just decides to box, I still could see him being so shot that even Volkov can evade that big overhand knockout blow, but as mentioned above, Nelson's been a little bit better lately in terms of mixing in his grappling, and if nothing else, he should be able to take down and control Volkov if he wants to. Yes, part of me is betting on Roy Nelson to fight a smart fight, which rightfully frightens the hell out of me, but my call, amazingly, is for Nelson to use that ground game and just take a decision. Picking Nelson to win a fight in 2017 is damn sure an indictment of something, though at this point I'm still not sure of what. Tom Duquesnoy (14-1 [1] overall) vs. Patrick Williams (8-4 overall, 1-1 UFC): So UFC finally signed one of MMA's top prospects after going after him for years, and even better, him being this high up on the card suggests they know what they have on their hands. Paris's Tom Duquesnoy has topped prospect lists for years, and there was word years ago, before Duquesnoy even turned twenty, that there was an open offer from UFC to Duquesnoy on the table. But Duquesnoy chose to go the other route and make sure he was ready to make an impact once he joined the roster, and, well, job done. Duquesnoy's gone on a tear, becoming two-division champ in BAMMA, one of England's top promotions, and doing so with highlight-reel finish after highlight-reel finish. That's not to say Duquesnoy's blown through everyone - Brendan Loughnane took him to a tough decision in Duquesnoy's last title defense at featherweight, and his last fight with Alan Philpott was fairly close before Duquesnoy turned things up to finish things in the second round - but Duquesnoy's just so well-rounded and dynamic that his ceiling is absolutely ridiculous. He gets a credible first test in Patrick Williams, who just hasn't been active enough to make much of a name for himself - the Floridian debuted in 2014 against Chris Beal, a fight he was mostly winning before Beal hit a highlight-reel flying knee KO, and his last fight was all the way back in Mexico in June of 2015, where Williams just blitzed Alejandro Perez and choked him out in just 23 seconds. Williams has a fine offensive arsenal, but I'm sort of worried about his defense, as the Beal fight showed that he doesn't really react well under pressure, and, well, that's a problem against Duquesnoy, who pretty much wastes no time in going after his opponent and trying to destroy them with a varied arsenal of strikes. Duquesnoy does get hit a bit more than I'd like, so I suppose it's possible that Williams clips him, but this does seem like a favorable style matchup for the favorite, and if things start going downhill for Williams, it'll probably all fall apart pretty quickly. Williams providing a challenge wouldn't shock me, but the much likelier result is that Duquesnoy just blows through him for a first-round knockout to show that he's officially arrived. Bobby Green (23-7 overall, 4-2 UFC, 4-1 Strikeforce) vs. Rashid Magomedov (19-2 overall, 4-1 UFC): Well, this is some pretty damn fun matchmaking, putting two lightweights badly in need of a win, who each have vastly different approaches to fighting, against each other. Rashid Magomedov was sort of the dark horse of the lightweight division for a while - he hasn't fought all that often, but when he has, his performances have typically been effective, if unmemorable. Magomedov's just an extremely gifted counter-striker, with a really bad tendency to coast once he's established the advantage; so moving up the ladder, Magomedov just sort of racked up one-sided decisions where the narrative was less about how good he looked, but in how frustrating his refusal to just finish the fight was. And that eventually hit a ceiling - he finally got a top-ten opponent in Beneil Dariush this past November, and Dariush just sort of fought a safe fight and pressured Magomedov into the clinch a lot, not allowing the Russian to implement much offense and taking a clear decision win. Magomedov looks to rebound against California's Bobby "King" Green, who it's nice to see back in the cage, since it feels like Green is always pulling out of a fight with either an injury or some sort of personal tragedy. Green doesn't have the jiu-jitsu, but he sort of has the same ethos as a Diaz brother, using some solid boxing to just throw a ton of volume on the feet, and further trying to frustrate his opponents by talking a ton of trash inside the cage. Green was sort of a regional action fighter for years, but finally got some momentum on Strikeforce undercards before riding that into a four-fight UFC winning streak, capped by a controversial decision win over Josh Thomson. Consensus is that that win was a classic example of Green just winning through aggression and showmanship rather than actual effectiveness, but that gameplan didn't work in his last two fights - Edson Barboza pretty much handled Green's game, and after about a year and a half layoff, Dustin Poirier responded to Green's smack talk by pretty much just punching his lights out. The broad outlines of the fight are fairly simple - Green's going to press the action and be there for Magomedov to counter pretty easily, and it's just a question if Green can survive to a decision, and throw enough volume in the process (or prevent Magomedov from doing so) to take a win. I'll favor Magomedov to just coast to another decision win, as he does, but honestly, I wouldn't be shocked if Magomedov deserved the win but Green just got the nod anyway - hell, I think I'd be less surprised by that than Green just outright winning the fight. Tim Elliott (13-7-1 overall, 2-5 UFC) vs. Louis Smolka (11-3 overall, 5-3 UFC): When UFC announced the cast for TUF 24, an all-flyweight season to earn a shot at Demetrious Johnson, Tim Elliott was the consensus favorite - Elliott was probably a top-ten flyweight at the time UFC cut him in 2015 in a bit of a weird decision - the promotion pretty much matched him with the division's elite, and even though he pretty much held his own, three straight losses and he was cut. And indeed, Elliott won the season, and even gave Johnson his biggest test in a bit...though it speaks to Johnson's dominance that basically amounted to winning the first round, and then getting dominated for the ensuing twenty minutes. Anyway, after teasing a move up to bantamweight - Elliott's weight cut for the title fight was apparently so rough his coaches had to stop him from quitting - Elliott gets a shot at a rebound win in his hometown of Kansas City against Hawaii's Louis Smolka. The tide turned for Smolka really quickly - seven months ago, Smolka was riding a four-fight win streak and looking like one of the most dynamic fighters in the division, as well as a dark horse to be plucked from the lower part of the rankings as UFC searched for a fresh challenger for Johnson. But after Sergio Pettis dropped out of a slated fight with Smolka this past October, Smolka instead wound up getting tapped out by debuting prospect Brandon Moreno in one of the biggest upsets of the year. After that, Smolka lost a fairly one-sided decision to Ray Borg, and now there's a ton of questions about Smolka's game, namely his ability to dictate the terms of a fight rather than get by on scrambles and submissions. And if Borg wound up being a tough matchup for Smolka, Elliott looks like an awful one - Elliott's a funky striker and an unorthodox submission artist, and as mentioned, gigantic for the division, so if Smolka had trouble grappling with Borg, and hell, Elliott temporarily got the better of Johnson, than the Missourian should be able to just dominate things here. Smolka will still have a reach advantage, so I suppose he could keep Elliott at bay, and if this just turned into a scramblefest, it's admittedly a 50-50 shot as far as who latches on a crazy submission, but everything in this fight seems to favor Elliott. So I'll take the hometown boy to coast to a fairly one-sided decision, though this could wind up being pretty fun. Aljamain Sterling (12-2 overall, 4-2 UFC) vs. Augusto Mendes (6-1 overall, 1-1 UFC): Bantamweight's as deep as ever, with a ton of rising talent making their way into the title picture, and it's shocking that those ranks don't contain Aljamain Sterling. Just a year ago, Sterling looked like the brightest prospect in the division, and it looked like UFC was finally starting to get behind him - for whatever reason, be it UFC's historical problems with promoting black athletes, or the fact that Sterling was fairly outspoken about testing free agency, Sterling was mostly buried on the prelims before testing the open market and eventually doubling his pay to return to UFC. (Though, honestly, Sterling probably should've gotten more, if not for the fact that Bellator, oddly, apparently chose not to make an offer to such a talented, marketable prospect.) But upon his UFC return, the promotion finally started to hype Sterling a bit promotionally - even if the New Yorker was still stuck in the featured Fight Pass prelim - only for Bryan Caraway to expose all the holes in Sterling's game. Sterling got some comparisons to Jon Jones, and it makes some sense - both are former collegiate wrestlers, both are long athletes for their divisions, and both even started at the same gym in upstate New York, but after Sterling dominated the first round, Caraway got him to rely more and more on his unorthodox, high volume kicking game. And while that game makes sense in isolation - it allows Sterling to take advantage of his size and reach - it's an absolutely horrible fit for the rest of his game, as that distance makes it harder for Sterling to implement his excellent wrestling and grappling, and just expends a ton of energy that leaves Sterling gassed in the later rounds. So Caraway won the last two rounds of their fight to steal a narrow win, and a follow-up fight with Raphael Assuncao was a lot of the same, with Sterling mostly being forced to keep things standing, and not looking all that great in the process. Admittedly, both fights were split decisions that could've gone either way, so in an alternate universe Sterling is a title contender, but as of now, losses are losses, and Sterling is badly in need of a win. And this is a huge opportunity for Augusto "Tanquinho" Mendes, who's one of the more interesting prospects at bantamweight. A former BJJ stud still taking to MMA, Mendes made his debut as a late-notice injury replacement and got absolutely chewed up by future champ Cody Garbrandt, as one would expect. And when UFC matched Mendes up with Frankie Saenz last January, it looked like the company itself was probably going to chew Mendes up and spit him out, as a tough vet like Saenz seemed like rushing a talented prospect into another loss. But Mendes showed some much-improved striking in a fun back-and-forth fight, got the narrow win, and now seems free to move up the ladder against guys like Sterling. I could see Mendes winning this - while he's physically outmatched, since Mendes is short and stocky for the division, with his submission background, I doubt he'll fear the takedown, leaving the Brazilian to be aggressive and try and take things to Sterling on the feet. But, possibly against my better judgement, I'll take Sterling to use his physical advantages to keep Mendes at bay and take the decision. I mean, again, if their last three fights go the other way, which they each could've easily done, Sterling could be in a title fight and Mendes could be out of the UFC. Still, Sterling's got a ton of things to fix, and hopefully does so here, and this is a fascinating fight that's extremely crucial for the future of both fighters. Devin Clark (7-1 overall, 1-1 UFC) vs. Jake Collier (10-3 overall, 2-2 UFC): Well, light heavyweight needs talent, and while this may not be the most fun fight on paper or that relevant at the moment, these are the types of fights you need to build a division - plus, hey, as guys who are both sort of tweeners between 185 and 205, it's nice to see some of those guys choose light heavyweight for a change. South Dakota's Devin Clark is ostensibly the better prospect here - signed off Dana White's reality show, he's the type of talent you'd expect from that show, an aggressive athlete who's still fairly unpolished. He probably should've won his UFC debut, a hometown fight against Alex Nicholson, but Nicholson scored a weird flash KO at the end of the first round, and Clark rebounded last December with a fine win over Josh Stansbury. Missouri's Jake Collier also has some upside, though, as he's still just 28 himself; Collier started as a self-taught fighter, and it kind of shows, as he has a bunch of solid skills and seems to be pretty tough, but everything seems more reactive rather than any sort of plan. This could really go either way - both guys are athletic, unpolished, and probably a bit too aggressive for their own good; I suppose I'll favor Collier to take a decision, but hopefully this turns into the fun kind of sloppy fight. Andrew Sanchez (9-2 overall, 2-0 UFC) vs. Anthony Smith (26-12 overall, 2-2 UFC, 2-0 Bellator, 2-2 Strikeforce): TUF 23 contained much more highly touted prospects like Khalil Rountree and Phil Hawes, but at the end of the day, it was Andrew Sanchez who won the season and established himself as a prospect to watch in his own right. Sanchez flashed a bunch of dynamism on the show - he comes from a BJJ background, but has knockout power in his fists - but his season-clinching win over Rountree was, frankly, an awful fight, as Sanchez just fought a smart fight and took Rountree down at will, where Rountree was unable to do anything. Admittedly, this was mostly Rountree's fault, but it seems to have at least dulled UFC's enthusiasm about pushing Sanchez - while he figures to be someone who can move up the middleweight rankings quickly, he's buried here on the prelims, even if Anthony Smith is a solid step up in competition. Smith's a longtime vet of the Midwest's fight scene (who, amusingly, is somehow younger than Sanchez) who had a blink-and-you'll-miss-it first UFC run, as he came over from Strikeforce, got quickly tapped out by Antonio Braga Neto on a deep prelim, and was immediately cut - but Smith fought his way back with a seven-fight win streak. Smith's settling in as a fun gatekeeper - he's long and lanky for the division, and has times where he can really turn on the violence standing, but this still looks like a fight Sanchez can win. Between the Rountree fight and his last fight against Trevor Smith, where Sanchez just took a tough veteran grinder and pieced him up standing, Sanchez has shown the tendency to just take the fight where he knows he can win, and not really put himself in much danger, and he should easily be able to do that by taking Smith down in every round. Admittedly, every fight starts on the feet, so Smith has a chance, but Sanchez can even hold his own there if need be. I originally thought it'd be Sanchez by decision, but what the hell, I'll place my faith in the talented prospect to get the submission, though I'll say it doesn't happen until the third round. Nathan Coy (15-6 overall, 1-1 UFC, 2-1 Bellator, 1-2 Strikeforce) vs. Zak Cummings (20-5 overall, 5-2 UFC, 1-0 Bellator, 0-1 Strikeforce): I'm happy Nathan Coy finally got his UFC shot, particularly after his portrayal on TUF 21 - that was the weird American Top Team versus Blackzilians season, and Coy, a veteran grinder out of ATT, was pretty much portrayed as being near the end of his career - hell, in a particularly cutting moment after a submission loss aired, FS1 actually ran a fan poll if Coy should retire. He didn't, and he, frankly somewhat surprisingly, got the call from UFC later that year, even if his debut didn't really go as planned, as he got choked out by British prospect Danny Roberts. But after a quick turnaround, Coy was able to get a decisive win over Jonavin Webb to finally get that UFC win almost a decade into his career, and returns fourteen months later to take on Zak Cummings. Cummings is a hometown boy, born and fighting out of Kansas City, and, frankly, this looks to be an easy night. Cummings is fairly underrated - his only UFC losses have been to Gunnar Nelson and Santiago Ponzinibbio (and he was probably winning the Nelson fight before the submission finish) - and he's had a bunch of success with a solid striking game and a funky submission game, which he showed off in his last fight, a win via an unorthodox armbar over Alexander Yakovlev. This is pretty much a layup win for Cummings, barring something unexpected - he's a better striker than Coy, a better submission artist, and even if he's not a better wrestler, he's a gigantic welterweight, enough so that he's narrowly missed weight a few times in his UFC tenure. So Cummings should have his way with Coy, and while there's a possibility Cummings just comes out and absolutely blasts Coy for a quick knockout, I'll at least say it goes a few minutes before Cummings earns a first-round submission. Ashlee Evans-Smith (5-1 overall, 2-1 UFC) vs. Ketlen Vieira (7-0 overall, 1-0 UFC): You know, I used to think that Ashlee Evans-Smith being ranked was a complete joke, and while she wouldn't be in a deeper division, I feel like I've come around and become one of the few people that actually likes her as a fighter. Admittedly, her UFC tenure hasn't been the most impressive - it's a first-round submission loss against Raquel Pennington, a robbery decision win over Marion Reneau, and a shellacking of Veronica Macedo, a natural strawweight, but Evans-Smith is big for the division, a strong wrestler, and has a rapidly improving striking game. (Plus, bonus points for using Bikini Kill as entrance music.) While it's nothing great, it's honestly probably still enough up to make a run up the women's bantamweight ladder with the right matchmaking, and this fight against Brazil's Ketlen Vieira is an intriguing one. Vieira's a Nova Uniao product, but didn't really come in with a ton of hype - she's big and athletic, but fairly raw and apparently can be baited into a brawl if she starts to panic, but we didn't really see any of her negatives in her UFC debut over Kelly Faszholz, as she pretty much outsized Faszholz and eventually implemented her wrestling at will. This feels like it'll be a one-sided fight, but I'm not sure in favor of who - both women will probably look to take down their opponents, and I'm not really sure how whoever's losing that battle is going to react, but since neither's really been tested, it's hard to tell who's going to get the upper hand. I kind of trust Evans-Smith's overall game a bit more at this point, so I'll favor the Californian, but good matchmaking here, and hopefully a fun fight to open things up.