#va 07

[erebusvincent]

[breadcircuseslobbyists]

In a shocking upset, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor lost his primary to David Brat, a virtually unknown Tea Party challenger. This surprise comes for a number of reasons including:

1. No sitting House Majority Leader has ever lost their primary

2. Cantor had many more financial resources to draw on; he raised $5.44 million, compared to Brat's $207,000.

3. Not one poll predicted that Brat would win this election.

4. Brat's platform was largely based on a false supposition that Cantor supports comprehensive immigration reform, while immigration reform advocates routinely cite him as the major roadblock to House action in immigration. Brat also took issue with Cantor's support of raising the debt ceiling and ending the government shutdown.

While each reason is important, it is the final point that brings an important lesson. This Republican primary saw a candidate win who is literally attacking straw men; whoever voted in this election under the belief that Cantor supports comprehensive immigration reform is either extremely out of touch with what's actually going on in that policy arena, or is so far to the right that Cantor's inaction was considered too liberal. Neither bodes well for immigration reform advocates, which is a shame considering how broken the U.S. immigration system is.

That last reason also shows that yes, the government shutdown is still fresh in voter's minds--but for Republicans in VA-07, they were angry the leadership let it end. (We'll have to see more of how the government shutdown affects voter sentiment in the general elections, when we see a Democrat and a Republican in the same race.)

This sets an interesting tone for the upcoming race in this district; because nobody questioned Eric Cantor's ability to win his primary, there hasn't been much attention to whatever Democratic challenger Brat will now face in the general election (under the assumption that Cantor would beat whoever it was). In fact, I am having trouble currently finding out who is even running in Virginia's 7th Congressional District as a Democrat. (Ed. note: If anyone knows, drop me an ask with a source and I'll check it out; I'll update this post with information if I can get it.) However, Democrats have an opportunity to grab a seat here if they can get a candidate who is far enough in the center to win Republican voters for whom Brat is too extreme. (Anyone else noticing the trend of Democrats shifting to the right as center Republicans join the Democratic party and/or Democrats have to run against Tea Partiers? More on that as the midterms unfold.)

Edit: The Democratic candidate is Jack Trammell.

[thosewhoshowup]

GUYS ERIC CANTOR LOST HIS PRIMARY

I DON'T EVEN UNDERSTAND ANYTHING ANYMORE.