A Belated “Welcome to The World” for Peter David!
Better Late Than Never... Data Analysis Within.
At 9:07 AM on May 6, 2020, Priscilla (Keller) + David Waller welcomed their 5th Child, Peter David, into the world. The Couple’s other children include 2 Boys, Paul (b. 2013) and Phillip (b. 2016), and 2 Girls, Davia (b. 2014) and Destiny (b. 2018).
How does Baby Peter’s birth shift Priscilla + David’s Data? Read on!
Note—I’m not going to discuss the Overall Keller Data for this Post, since I still haven’t had the time to dig through all the possible data for Esther + John, and thus have essentially no data for all but their most recent pregnancy. While it’s obviously possible to compare Priscilla just to Anna, that seems less useful, so let’s just stick with analyzing Priscilla + David...
Timing of...
Pregnancy Announcement
On December 3, 2019, Priscilla + David revealed on their blog that Priscilla was expecting yet again. With her Approximate Due Date of May 5, 2020, Priscilla’s pregnancy was ~126 Days Along (Exactly 18 Weeks), at the time.
With Peter, Priscilla + David beat their old record for Latest Pregnancy Reveal by 2 Weeks. (They revealed Pregnancy #4, Destiny, at 109 Days Along.) Pre–Peter, it was typical for them to announce on Day 77 (11 Weeks). With Peter’s data factored in, it’s now typical for them to announce on Day 86, i.e., 9 Days Later. Here’s how far along Priscilla was each time she shared baby news—
Pregnancy #1 / Paul 96 Days Along
Pregnancy #2 / Davia ~59 Days Along
Pregnancy #3 / Phillip ~42 Days Along
Pregnancy #4 / Destiny ~109 Days Along
Pregnancy #5 / Peter ~126 Days Along
Sex Reveal
The Wallers did a Sex Reveal for Peter on Christmas (December 25, 2019). At the time, Priscilla was ~148 Days Along (21 Weeks, 1 Day).
Peter’s was the Wallers’s 3rd Pre–Birth Sex Reveal. They also did Sex Reveals for Paul (Child 1) and Destiny (Child 4). (Technically, they did a Sex Reveal for Davia (Child 2), too. That Sex Reveal was actually filmed for an episode of 19 Kids & Counting; however, the episode didn’t air until after Davia’s birth. They likely agreed with TLC not to post about the Sex Reveal until after the episode aired, which explains why—despite throwing a Sex Reveal Party—they waited until Davia’s birth to publicly announce her sex.) Prior to Peter, it was ‘typical’ for Priscilla + David to do a Sex Reveal ~134 Days (19 Weeks, 1 Days) into the pregnancy. Factoring in Peter, now it’s ‘typical’ for them to do the Sex Reveal on ~Day 139 (5 Days Later).
Delivery (vs. Due Date)
Honestly, Priscilla’s due date data is kind of lacking. We known the exact due date of only one Waller Offspring, Paul (Child 1). (He was due March 9, 2013.) Davia (Child 2) was due in “mid–November” 2014. (Duggar Data uses the mid–point, rounded up—i.e., November 16, 2014—which is probably no more than ~1 Week Off in either direction.) Phillip (Child 3) was due in “October” of 2016. (Duggar Data uses the mid–point, October 16, 2016, which could be ±15 Days Off.) Destiny was due in “Late September or Early October” 2018. (See Also.) (Duggar Data uses the last day of September—i.e., September 30, 2018. That is probably accurate within ±7 Days.)
Peter (Child 5) was due in “Early May” 2020. (Duggar Data uses May 5, 2020.) Peter was actually born on May 6, 2020. If Priscilla was due May 5, 2020—as I’ve approximated—then he was 1 Day Late.
Let’s assume that all of the Approximate Due Dates I’m using are accurate. (I acknowledge this is quite unlikely, but what are you going to do? It’s the data we have.) Assuming that, we can calculate that—prior to Peter—Priscilla gave birth ~2 Days Late, on average. Factoring in Peter, it is still ~2 Days Late (No Significant Change).
Birth Announcement
Peter was born on May 6, 2020, and the Wallers announced his arrival on May 6, 2020—i.e., 0 Days Later / Same Day.
Prior to Peter, the Wallers typically waited 0.5 Days to announce a new arrival. With Paul (Child 1) and Phillip (Child 3), they announced it Day Later, and they announced Davia (Child 2) and Destiny (Child 4) on that Same Day. Factoring Peter in, that shifts to 0.4 Days Later (0.1 Day Earlier). With rounding, it’s now ‘typical’ for them to announce the Same Day.
Birthweight & Length
At birth, Peter David was 9 Pounds, 0 Ounces, and 22.75 Inches long.
We have Birthweight & Length data for all of Priscilla + David’s children. Before Peter, their offspring were 9 Pounds, 0.25 Ounce and 21.81 Inches long, at the time of birth, on average. Factoring in Peter’s data, that shifts to 9 Pounds, 0.2 Ounce (No Significant Change) and 22 Inches (+0.19 Inches).
Child Spacing / ESOQ
Peter David (Waller #5) arrived 582 Days (19.1 Months) after Waller #4, Destiny Faith.
Prior to Pregnancy Announcement #5, Priscilla + Waller had a working spacing of 675 Days, since that was the average of all their spacings, except Marriage–to–Child #1. Peter actually arrived after 582 Days—i.e., ~3 Months Earlier than expected. Factoring in his data, Priscilla + David’s Procreative Pace shifts to 1 Child Every 652 Days (21.4 Month) (–23 Days). Their ESOQ is 10 Children.
When to Expect Waller #6
The Predictor expects the following, with regard to Waller #6—
Baby News August 5, 2021
Due Date February 15, 2022
Birthdate February 17, 2022
Assuming a normal distribution of spacings, odds are 68% that their next child will be born between December 11, 2021 and April 26, 2022.
Many, many apologies for how late this Post was!