#peter waller

[wtffundiefamilies]

Happy birthday, Peter!  Wishing you many happy returns of the day.

[duggardata]

A Belated “Welcome to The World” for Peter David!

Better Late Than Never...  Data Analysis Within.

At 9:07 AM on May 6, 2020, Priscilla (Keller) + David Waller welcomed their 5th Child, Peter David, into the world.  The Couple’s other children include 2 Boys, Paul (b. 2013) and Phillip (b. 2016), and 2 Girls, Davia (b. 2014) and Destiny (b. 2018).

How does Baby Peter’s birth shift Priscilla + David’s Data?  Read on!

Note—I’m not going to discuss the Overall Keller Data for this Post, since I still haven’t had the time to dig through all the possible data for Esther + John, and thus have essentially no data for all but their most recent pregnancy.  While it’s obviously possible to compare Priscilla just to Anna, that seems less useful, so let’s just stick with analyzing Priscilla + David...

Timing of...

Pregnancy Announcement

On December 3, 2019, Priscilla + David revealed on their blog that Priscilla was expecting yet again.  With her Approximate Due Date of May 5, 2020, Priscilla’s pregnancy was ~126 Days Along (Exactly 18 Weeks), at the time.

With Peter, Priscilla + David beat their old record for Latest Pregnancy Reveal by 2 Weeks.  (They revealed Pregnancy #4, Destiny, at 109 Days Along.)  Pre–Peter, it was typical for them to announce on Day 77 (11 Weeks).  With Peter’s data factored in, it’s now typical for them to announce on Day 86, i.e., 9 Days Later.  Here’s how far along Priscilla was each time she shared baby news—

Pregnancy #1 / Paul   96 Days Along

Pregnancy #2 / Davia   ~59 Days Along

Pregnancy #3 / Phillip   ~42 Days Along

Pregnancy #4 / Destiny   ~109 Days Along

Pregnancy #5 / Peter   ~126 Days Along

Sex Reveal

The Wallers did a Sex Reveal for Peter on Christmas (December 25, 2019).  At the time, Priscilla was ~148 Days Along (21 Weeks, 1 Day).

Peter’s was the Wallers’s 3rd Pre–Birth Sex Reveal.  They also did Sex Reveals for Paul (Child 1) and Destiny (Child 4).  (Technically, they did a Sex Reveal for Davia (Child 2), too.  That Sex Reveal was actually filmed for an episode of 19 Kids & Counting; however, the episode didn’t air until after Davia’s birth.  They likely agreed with TLC not to post about the Sex Reveal until after the episode aired, which explains why—despite throwing a Sex Reveal Party—they waited until Davia’s birth to publicly announce her sex.)  Prior to Peter, it was ‘typical’ for Priscilla + David to do a Sex Reveal ~134 Days (19 Weeks, 1 Days) into the pregnancy.  Factoring in Peter, now it’s ‘typical’ for them to do the Sex Reveal on ~Day 139 (5 Days Later).

Delivery (vs. Due Date)

Honestly, Priscilla’s due date data is kind of lacking.  We known the exact due date of only one Waller Offspring, Paul (Child 1).  (He was due March 9, 2013.)  Davia (Child 2) was due in “mid–November” 2014.  (Duggar Data uses the mid–point, rounded up—i.e., November 16, 2014—which is probably no more than ~1 Week Off in either direction.)  Phillip (Child 3) was due in “October” of 2016.  (Duggar Data uses the mid–point, October 16, 2016, which could be ±15 Days Off.)  Destiny was due in “Late September or Early October” 2018.  (See Also.)  (Duggar Data uses the last day of September—i.e., September 30, 2018.  That is probably accurate within ±7 Days.)

Peter (Child 5) was due in “Early May” 2020.  (Duggar Data uses May 5, 2020.)  Peter was actually born on May 6, 2020.  If Priscilla was due May 5, 2020—as I’ve approximated—then he was 1 Day Late.

Let’s assume that all of the Approximate Due Dates I’m using are accurate.  (I acknowledge this is quite unlikely, but what are you going to do?  It’s the data we have.)  Assuming that, we can calculate that—prior to Peter—Priscilla gave birth ~2 Days Late, on average.  Factoring in Peter, it is still ~2 Days Late (No Significant Change). 

Birth Announcement

Peter was born on May 6, 2020, and the Wallers announced his arrival on May 6, 2020—i.e., 0 Days Later / Same Day.

Prior to Peter, the Wallers typically waited 0.5 Days to announce a new arrival.  With Paul (Child 1) and Phillip (Child 3), they announced it Day Later, and they announced Davia (Child 2) and Destiny (Child 4) on that Same Day.  Factoring Peter in, that shifts to 0.4 Days Later (0.1 Day Earlier).  With rounding, it’s now ‘typical’ for them to announce the Same Day.

Birthweight & Length

At birth, Peter David was 9 Pounds, 0 Ounces, and 22.75 Inches long.

We have Birthweight & Length data for all of Priscilla + David’s children.  Before Peter, their offspring were 9 Pounds, 0.25 Ounce and 21.81 Inches long, at the time of birth, on average.  Factoring in Peter’s data, that shifts to 9 Pounds, 0.2 Ounce (No Significant Change) and 22 Inches (+0.19 Inches). 

Child Spacing / ESOQ

Peter David (Waller #5) arrived 582 Days (19.1 Months) after Waller #4, Destiny Faith.

Prior to Pregnancy Announcement #5, Priscilla + Waller had a working spacing of 675 Days, since that was the average of all their spacings, except Marriage–to–Child #1.  Peter actually arrived after 582 Days—i.e., ~3 Months Earlier than expected.  Factoring in his data, Priscilla + David’s Procreative Pace shifts to 1 Child Every 652 Days (21.4 Month) (–23 Days).  Their ESOQ is 10 Children.

When to Expect Waller #6

The Predictor expects the following, with regard to Waller #6—

Baby News   August 5, 2021

Due Date   February 15, 2022

Birthdate   February 17, 2022

Assuming a normal distribution of spacings, odds are 68% that their next child will be born between December 11, 2021 and April 26, 2022. 

Many, many apologies for how late this Post was!

[keepingupwithfundies]

My 3yo son knows babies come out of vaginas. Way to go, David and Priscilla, for once again sexualizing something unnecessary 🙄

Coupla crude Cassies cussing in our inbox. Obviously joking... Say it with me y’all... Vagina.

Each one of the interactions with the kids was honestly somethin. The bit at the end with all of them repeating the children are a blessing verse was creepy  -Suz

[travelbinge]

Peyto Lake by Peter Waller

Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada

[duggardata]

Breaking: Waller #5 is Here!

On May 6, 2020 at 9:07 AM, Priscilla (Keller) + David Waller welcomed their 5th Child, Peter David Waller. They shared the news on their blog.

I’ll analyze the data soon.

[duggardata]

Very Slight Change to Rule Used To Estimate Certain Data

Duggar Data loves exact data; however, it isn’t always available…  Say, when a couple tells us that a relevant event happened in “March,” or “Early March,” but doesn’t give an exact date.  Duggar Data estimates the date in these situations, and does so using a set of established rules to ensure “Early March” is always estimated the same way.

I’ve been rethinking my estimating rules recently, and I’ve decided to change them slightly.  It’s honestly really slight…  It probably doesn’t even matter.  But, I wanted to let you know!

Until now, my rules for estimating Month + Year (e.g., March 2020) and Specific Portion of Month [+ Year] (e.g., Early March 2020) were also follows—

Month + Year   Use the midpoint of the month.  (Round up if it’s a month with an even number of days.)

“Mid” Month   Same analysis as above.

“Early” Month   Use the 1st Quartile—i.e., the midpoint of the 1st Half of the month.  (Round up, if necessary.)

“Late” Month   Use the 3rd Quartile—i.e., the midpoint of the 2nd Half of the month.  (Round up, if necessary.)

Applying these rules, here’s the date I’d end up using—

Month + Year   15th (Months w/ 28 or 29 Days), 16th (w/ 30 or 31 Days)

“Mid” Month   15th (Months w/ 28 or 29 Days), 16th (w/ 30 or 31 Days)

“Early” Month   8th (Regardless of # of Days)

“Late” Month   22nd (Months w/ 28 Days), 23rd (w/ 29 or 30 Days), 24th (w/ 31 Days)

I don’t really like this.  Mostly because it implies that “Early” [Month] consists of the entire first half, and it’s just…  Not.  I wouldn’t consider Valentine’s Day to be in “Early February,” would you?

So, I’ve decided to switch things up…  Instead of dividing months into “Early” and “Late,” I will divide them into 3 Parts—Early, Middle, and Late.  Each part gets the same amount of days, to the extent possible.  As a rule, let’s always ensure that “Early” and “Late” get the same number of days; any extra days are allocated to “Middle.”  So, here’s what’s defined as Early, Middle, and Late—

28–Day Months   1–9 (Early), 10–19 (Middle), 20–28 (Late)

29–Day Months   1–9 (Early), 10–20 (Middle), 21–29 (Late)

30–Day Months   1–10 (Early), 11–20 (Middle), 21–30 (Late)

31–Day Months   1–10 (Early), 11–21 (Middle), 22–31 (Late)

… and, just like before, our Estimate Date would just be the midpoint of the relevant range.  Unlike before, let’s round down if the hint is “Early” Month and the Early Range consists of an even number of values.  (For “Mid” or “Late,” we’ll still round up.)  Here’s the date we’ll end up using, after applying this new rule—

“Early”   5th (Regardless of # of Days)

“Middle”   15th (Months w/ 28 or 29 Days), 16th (w/ 30 or 31 Days)

“Late”   24 (Months w/ 28 Days), 25 (w/ 29 Days), 26 (w/ 30 Days), 27 (w/ 31 Days)

If we’re told a Month + Year, but “Early” or “Late” isn’t stated, we’ll just take the midpoint of the entire month, rounded up if necessary.  (Like we did before.)

Like I said, it’s a small shift…  3 Days or Less, actually.  Regardless, the following data will be directly impacted by the rule change.  For all of these, we were told that the event was in “Early” or “Late” [Month], and that’s it…

C. Bontrager–Bowers #2’s Due Date   Said to be due “end of August” 2020.  This is treated the same as “Late August.”  Was using August 24, 2020.  Now using August 27, 2020 (+3 Days).

Samuel Dillard’s Due Date   Said to be in “Early July” 2017.  Was using July 8, 2017.  Now using July 5, 2017 (–3 Days).

Peter Waller’s Due Date   Said to be in “Early May” 2020.  Was using May 8, 2020.  Now using May 5, 2020 (–3 Days).

That’s it!  Just wanted to let you give know about this very, very slight change.

[duggardata]

Are you analyzing Waller #5s data?

Yes, I’m planning to, I’m behind on posting right now. I hope to get to it after analyzing Jinger’s pregnancy! I’m also hoping to do a Post about Jesse + Anna, but I might wait on that until we get more information on the relationship from the Maxwell Family Blog.

Also, thank you to everyone who checked in to ask if I was okay! I’m touched. I’m perfectly fine. I’m busy right now balancing work and life stuff. Things were slow, so I took a little break. I’m still here!

[stroudtimes]

A tribute to Peter Waller, Stroud's London Hero 1942-2022

By Max Waller If Stroud had its very own member of The Beatles then it surely would have been my father, Peter Waller. Of course, I’m biased because he’s my dad and it’s just possible I might have a tendency to over-romanticise my characterisation of him. But when I think back on his generation growing up at a time of great social and cultural change in the 1960’s I’ve come to realise that he…

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