This is mainly me going over older scenes in the game to try to piece together what Noel's state is like in canon, including what his curse seems to entail, and whether he's even considered alive or not, and putting a few scenes like childhood dream on Claire falling off the cliff into context through that.
(I forgot to add this, so super quick note that my screenshots comes from my own playthroughs for ones I took while playing, Monochrome's playthrough up to end of Sirius' Conclusion for anything I missed for quick access, and Reiss Ryhas' stream of Wilardo's Conclusion.)
With how much earlier games lean on Noel is considered a hater, with having even designated low-levels to torment him textually daily, while never being explicitly stated to be dead (which is an odd thing when it's been 5 games so far, and with someone who is a constant presence in his life that would surely have brought it up in some way around for entirety of it), I have been pretty confused on whether Noel is alive at all, and how to read hater related experiences and powers he seems to have in light of that, especially when Wilardo's Conclusion essentially threw in an exchange and framing that seemed to imply he's alive.
So, going over exchanges I can remember being related to his state/taking that he has a different curse than regular haters who we do know for sure died into account + thinking more about if hater curse by nature requires you to be specifically dead/if there isn't parts of it that comes from just being human born and somehow cursed to be tied to a 'hell' (which Curse of Argus/Argos is stated to include multiple times by now)...
I think looking at everything, Noel is very much alive in canon, at least until conclusions, as he can survive or die at the end of those with 50/50 rate so far.
First main detail that really got me thinking was seeing this exchange with Zizel again, from Noel's scenario.
Which... in hindsight, also feels like a nudge at how if he was already dead, him being tormented by them and his death daily would be just regular occurence that getting used to is the norm, not something you would expect Zizel to point out as something to take note of.
(Charlotte also brings it up once again in Bonus Stage, when his mental and physical state has been deteriorating enough that he is not really able to fight off the low levels, and generally spiraling, that this is something that happens to him daily.)
He is tormented daily by those ball-face-shaped low levels, which follows with how rest of haters are taunted by reliving their deaths, but... his is simply throwing blame at him for things his dad did.
I went through scenes where we see him with those face balls, and they never once say anything on him being dead (though one does call him cursed and rub that to his face), with us even seeing that said torment is still inescapable, when Ashe ends up stumbling on him right when he was having his daily torment in Bonus Stage.
...Where, once again, as long as Ashe destroys the daily torment low levels (which Noel himself does in his scenario to 'pass time until his stargazing date with Claire'), they actually leave them be, while low levels that have the duty of making the person relive their deaths never that easily back down.
On that note, just visiting 'hell' itself doesn't actually kill you, as we see Claire and conclusion character in question be around in some fantasy spaces, including 'hell' itself for whether Claire will terminate her contract or not, so if Noel was dead, there aren't many potential causes to begin with, besides something to do with curse effecting his body/his initial death likely requiring something on him turning to his cursed flesh monster form.
This never happens when Ashe stumbles on him, he's just out cold (and noticably not bloody) on the ground until Ashe destroys the low levels.
...On that note, Rouge actually specifically phrases it as Noel's right eye no longer functioning, and that he will be meeting his end here, not that he already met it, as he ultimately can't leave the 1 square kilometers of land/the high magic density area mansion is built on (though he can leave the mansion itself pre timeloop, which we will get to a bit later too)
All of which seems to point to he is very much physically alive, or at least the state his curse puts him in still doesn't make him count as physically dead to a point where he is considered fully dead yet.
With also on the topic of his odd state with being able to show up around the mansion/mansion area worth being brought up for a certain dream-memory from Noel's scenario as well.
This recontextualized as Noel showing up around the mansion area at night (potentially through the magic circle?) a few days/a short time after his disappearance and curse, as him being taunted by low levels has been something that would be there since his first day (as we see Claire reliving her death twice in 'hell', shortly after she dies, both for original first night and Sirius' scenario), with both being children back then, so unable to fight them off physically (you take damage and can't damage back the low levels as child Claire for the forest section)...
Leading to this scene, where Noel was avoiding her to try to keep her safe from both low levels around him (who are allowed to kill people), and in general didn't want to say anything as he didn't want Claire dragged into this entire mess too, where Claire ends up falling of the cliff chasing after him.
(screenshot limit, continued part 2)











