We may have to wait until winter 2018-2019 to find out who wins the “Game of Thrones” and what becomes of the Lannisters, Targaryens, Jon Snow and the Starks, but the stock market’s winter rally of 2017-2018 appears to be right on schedule despite fears that the banner rally year-to-date as of Thanksgiving might steal some thunder from the yearend rally, the Best Six Months and next year.
The average gain in all years since 1949 year-to-date as of Thanksgiving for the S&P 500 has been 6.8%. This year the S&P 500 was up an impressive 16% as of the close the last Wednesday before Thanksgiving. In the table below we compare the performance after Thanksgiving in all the years that had above average gains as of close the day before the big holiday.
These exceptional years gains with above average gains YTD through the Wednesday before Thanksgiving show some improvement with average gains from Thanksgiving to yearend up 2.2% for the S&P 500 vs. 1.9% for all years since 1949. Gains for the Best Six Months and full year are also markedly better, but the following year’s gains are slightly below average at 7.6%.