Prediction Time #4 - Groves vs Eubank Jr
It’s finally here.
‘Saint’ George Groves will face Chris Eubank Jr in the second defence of his WBA Super World Super-Middleweight championship at the Manchester Arena this Saturday.
In what you’d have to say is a ‘crossover’ fight, Eubank Jr is facing not only the toughest challenge of his career, but the most pressure he has ever been under. Although, it’s safe to say, like most, I was deeply impressed with how he handled the lions den against Avni Yildrim in his quarter final. That was cold, sir. Stone cold!
George Groves has been here before, and his attitude this week reminds us of that. Whilst Eubank Jr seems intent on dragging Groves into some trash talk, George seems content in himself and confident the fight will sell itself.
So who is going to win? Will it be the experience and nous of Groves? Or the exuberance of youth in Eubank Jr?
Read on to see what i think...
I believe there are three key areas in this fight, and they all point directly to one winner for me. Let’s go through those three points now...
Weight
The weight was a huge issue before George Groves’s last fight against Jamie Cox, with people pointing to the fact Jamie boxed as low as at lightweight in the amateurs, and that George would have the natural size advantage.
That proved to be the case, as Cox was energetic and aggressive in the opening rounds, but as soon as Groves planted his feet and landed a solid shot he was out of there. There are weight classes for a reason, folks.
160lbs to 168lbs isn’t much of a jump though, surely? Unfortunately for Chris Eubank Jr, it is.
When you’ve got a guy like Groves, who at this point is killing himself to make the limit, and will walk into the ring somewhere in the region 185lbs upwards, whereas Eubank Jr will probably come in at around the Super-Middleweight limit, 168lbs.
I’ll say it again, there are weight classes for a reason, and unfortunately in this sport it’s still legal to boil yourself down as much as physically possible to get an advantage on your opponent.
Personally, I think weight cutting should be regulated by the sanctioning bodies as it’s dangerous for all involved, but that’s another topic for another day.
Here, we have Groves who undoubtedly holds the advantage in this category.
Skills
The speed of Eubank Jr really is eye catching.
I do love watching him shoe shine on that fancy machine in his gym, it really is impressive.
Like most, I found the video where he is separated from a sparring partner for ‘doing too much damage’ incredibly cringeworthy and unjustified. Sparring is sparring and there is a code in boxing, and other combat sports, that footage is not released. Yes, bring it up to hype a fight, as Eubank Jr has done in this instance, but don’t release the footage because it makes everyone look bad.
There has been a lot talk about sparring in this fight, and the word seems to be that Eubank Jr got the best of it back in the day. Adam Booth has trained both fighters, and seen each of them spar countless rounds, and said the only time he’s seen either of them really hurt was against each other.
I don’t take too much stock in that however, as in sparring you’re normally trying to adapt your style to a game plan for a specific opponent, and it’s easy for a young, hungry fighter to come in and shake you up.
Back to the skills, Eubank Jr clearly has the speed advantage over Groves, but what kills speed?
Timing.
Eubank Jr commonly overextends when throwing combinations out of desperation to stop his opponents, as he doesn’t carry concussive power, especially not at Super-Middleweight.
The trick for Groves is to take a step back and time his right hand correctly, similarly to how he dealt with Jamie Cox.
Another weapon in Groves’s arsenal is his jab. It’s like a piston.
The tale of the tape shows us that Groves’s reach is only two inches greater than Eubank Jr’s, but he can make that feel like ten inches if he applies his jab correctly, which he normally does.
Eubank Jr’s only option is to negate that with his work rate, but I feel the power of Groves will deter him and therefore lessen his work rate.
Although Eubank Jr’s skill set is easy on the eye, I have to give this factor to Groves as well.
Groves has also been able to prove his skill set at world level, Eubank Jr has not.
Experience
I’ve so far written two articles about this fight, which reviewed each fighter’s best opponents (link) and each fighter’s best win (link) respectively.
It’s clear to see from these two articles that Groves has operated at a higher level throughout his career, whereas Eubank Jr has had the luxury of being able to cherry pick easier opponents on his rise to the top.
George Groves and James DeGale fought in his 12th fight. Eubank Jr’s opponent in his 12th fight was Frankie Borg... yeah.
For the longest time Groves was slated with falling at the final hurdle. After all, he came so close to dethroning Carl Froch in their first fight only to gas late in the fight, and in their second fight was brutally stopped. Against Badou Jack, although the fight was close, he couldn’t get a convincing win over the line.
After those three defeats, Groves had to mature rapidly as a fighter and a man, which he did. He regrouped with wins over David Brophy, Martin Murray and Edward Gutknecht before finally winning his world title at the 4th attempt against Fedor Chudinov.
To a lesser degree, Eubank Jr has been through same journey.
Eubank Jr was defeated by an unfit Billy Joe Saunders in his first 12 round contest and bounced back with wins against Dmitry Chudinov, Gary ‘Spike’ O’Sullivan and Nick Blackwell.
He then went on to win the rarely sought after IBO world title against unknown Renold Quinlan and defended it against Arthur Abraham and Avni Yildrim.
It’s clear for all to see whether Eubank Jr hasn’t operated at the same level as Groves, and it remains to be seen whether he can.
It’s cut and dry that Groves wins this category for me.
So as you can tell from the above breakdown, I’m very much in favour of Groves in this fight. He’s bigger, more skilled as a boxer and much more experienced.
My official pick is a clear points win for Groves somewhere around the 117-111 mark with Eubank Jr stealing a few rounds with his work rate.
Thank you for reading, I hope you enjoyed!














