The Fundie Data

Questioning fundies from the other side of the Pond.

[thefundiedata]

Upcoming Events | May - October 2026

Sorry all for that very long and unplanned hiatus. Work got incredibly busy and then the latest Duggar pest case completely ruined any desire I had to think about these people. But I am, at least partially, back to predicting. No pictures this month but I'll try and get back to it properly next month.

Confirmed Events Potentially James Duggar and Lydia Swanson's wedding this week if it hasn't been called off - though insiders say it has been.

Kaylee and Jonathan Hill are expecting their second baby, a girl, in June. They are already parents to a son, Gideon Daniel (2).

Nurie and Nathan Keller are expecting their fourth baby in December. They are already parents to Nehemiah David (4), Newman Christian (3) and Naomi Christine (22 months).

Warden Bates is engaged to be married to Kaybrie Patterson. Rumours circulating say a September wedding. October would be Bates-typical.

Who Is Late?

Jason & Maddie Duggar for Baby 1. Joy & Austin Forsyth for Baby 4. Jed & Katey Duggar for Baby 5. Trace & Lydia Bates for Baby 3. Renee Rodrigues for courtship. Phillip Rodrigues for courtship.

Predicted Events

May: Nothing predicted

June: 1st - Timothy and Heidi Rodrigues announce Baby 2. 21st - Addallee Bates enters a pre-courtship/starts dating (whatever the Bates call it now). 26th - Johannah Duggar enters a pre-courtship.

July: 15th - Jason and Maddie Duggar announce Baby 1 (3 SDs late). 31st - Jeremiah and Hannah Duggar announce Baby 4.

August: 7th - Joy and Austin Forsyth announce Baby 4 (2 SDs late).

September: 3rd - Jed and Katey Duggar announce Baby 5 (1 SD late). 5th - Renee Rodrigues enters a courtship (2 SDs late). 14th - Katie and (cheater) Travis Clark announce Baby 3*. 22nd - Nathan and Esther Bates announce Baby 3.

October: 17th - Trace and Lydia Bates announce Baby 3 (1 SD late).

[fundiepredictions]

It's getting very likely that James and Lydia are getting married in may. This is from the knot. Their website and registry are password protected. So embracy yourself for another weird/creepy age difference couple

[thefundiedata]

The spreadsheet's latest prediction was for early June... so also tracks with average Duggar timings.

[fundieinfoplace]

Breaking News: Baby Smith

Gage Turner Smith was born Feb 28th 2026 to Bobby and Tori Smith.

[thefundiedata]

I know I've basically vanished (yay adult life) but I'm logging in to say that all I can see with this name is 'Page Turner'. Baby Page Turner Smith, I hope you love books when you're older.

(Rest of baby posts for Jana, Abbie - maybe, if she posts any data? - and Tori coming hopefully soon)

[thefundiedata]

Meet Theodore Lawson Bates

On 16th January 2026, Lawson and Tiffany Bates finally announced the birth of their second son, Theodore Lawson Bates "Theo". This came after several, dragged-out YouTube videos, Instagram reels and speculation. Theo had been born over a month earlier on 9th December 2025. He joins an older brother, William Daniel "Will" (17 months).

Pregnancy Announcement

The family announced the pregnancy on 9th June 2025 when Tiffany was 84 days along (12 weeks, 0 days). This was earlier than with Will, who was a post-loss pregnancy. Their new average to announce is Day 109 (15 days, 4 weeks). They then announced the gender on Day 241 (34 weeks, 3 days), which was later than with Will. Their new average to announce the gender is Day 225 (32 weeks, 1 day). Once again, they announced the baby's name before announcing their birth, so this will be assumed to continue for any future pregnancies.

Effect on the Data

As a second child, Theo's data is used to calculate the second child multiplier for all predictor families. This currently stands at 1.7 (meaning a second pregnancy spacing will be 1.7x longer than the marriage-firstborn spacing). Theo is an outlier here. The spacing from Will to Theo was actually shorter than the spacing from Lawson and Tiffany's wedding to their first, lost pregnancy. It has also been used in the 25-30 maternal multiplier age group, the current average spacing in this age group is 659 days, so this pregnancy was faster than average. Otherwise, the data for this pregnancy will only be used to predict Lawson and Tiffany's future spacings.

So What Next?

A third pregnancy is predicted using the third child multiplier. This currently stands at 1.25 and estimates a third child will arrive 1.25x slower than a second child. This leads to a predicted spacing of 635 days. The couple are predicted to announce a further pregnancy in April 2027 and deliver that September. They are predicted to have eight children in total.

[thefundiedata]

I am now reading myself for the war for Harry Styles tickets on Monday.

In other news, Teddy’s birth post is nearly done. But I find Lawson and Tiffany so irritating, I’m struggling to finish it.

[thefundiedata]

Katie and Travis Clark had a miscarriage (and Travis cheated)

cw: pregnancy loss

Not the kind of post I want to make or do the data on so just putting out a quick post with predicted data for them.

Given the decorations up when Katie found out, the estimated eight week loss and recent posting, I'll estimate that this pregnancy would have been due around the beginning of August and delivered around the end of July (Katie has delivered both previous pregnancies early) had it gone to term. This would give an estimated spacing between Harvey and this lost pregnancy of 664 days. This will be used as Katie's third child data for spreadsheet purposes and for future, non-post-loss pregnancies for Katie and Travis. This pregnancy was slightly (0.11 SDs) early, with the previous prediction being an announcement in April 2026. It has slightly lowered the third child spacing multiplier from 1.26x slower than second pregnancies to 1.25x.

Currently the average post-loss spacing across the spreadsheet is 437 days. With this in mind, Katie and Travis are expected to announce Baby 3* in September 2026 for a birth in March 2027. They are still estimated to have a total of ten children.

Edit: After doing the data and writing it up but before posting, Travis shared that he had been unfaithful to Katie multiple times. This comes after weeks of speculation by fans and snarkers. Katie and Travis's data is paused while they (hopefully privately?) decide on their future. If it was me, I'd be kicking him out, but Katie is a fundie who was raised to believe her whole purpose was being a wife and a mother and who has always taken on the accountability of the men around her, so we'll see. If they do stay together, I imagine a quick fix-it baby (because that always works). I probably won't include any of this in the post-loss data set because of the additional circumstances unless another baby happened within a typical time frame. Leaving up the data analysis though for anyone who is interested. My thoughts go out to Katie - can't imagine where her head is at right now.

[thefundiedata]

Update. I found the episodes of Heated Rivalry available online last night and binged them so this European is caught up. So happy with this adaptation. Missed book!Kip quite a lot and wished there was more of him and we got that depth but so ready for season finale this week now.

edit: also my dad out of the blue suggested we go and catch an ice hockey game in the new year. it's some kind of fate.

[thefundiedata]

hi! I am semi fundie, lol. Can I give you my personal data to put into the predictor and see how many children it predicts I'll have? I love your blog and would like to see what it says and how it ends up matching up to real life.

You're welcome to send stuff in. I've been busy since you sent this in at work and will be busy this week with family and am on a trip for New Year so you may end up waiting a while for any data, but I'll get round to it when I can.

[thefundiedata]

we know Tiffany is due December 23 because of an ultersound seen in a video Tiffany has said josie was due the day before her meaning josie was due the 22nd

I did have this down from a previous ask. I guess the issue I have with it is that it's Tiffany sharing dates for someone else rather than them confirming it for themselves. I've kept Tiffany's due date as 23rd though. The fact both she and Josie post content from days or weeks earlier doesn't help for dating things either though.

[thefundiedata]

Meet Brooks Hallum Balka

On 9th December 2025, Josie and Kelton Balka shared that they had given birth to their fourth child. They announced that the baby was a boy later the same day and his name, Brooks Hallum, the following day. Brooks had been born on 6th December 2025 and joins older siblings Willow Kristy (6), Hazel Sloane (4) and Miles Kelton (21 months).

Pregnancy Announcement Josie announced this pregnancy on her Instagram on 28th April 2025. She hasn't publicly shared her due date. However, given that she was due to be induced on 4th December at 37 weeks, it must have been between 19th and 25th December. The only other information we have is that Josie didn't know she was pregnant when she was on a cruise in early April but had tested positive by the time of pregnancy roulette, which was posted on 25th April. (Strangely, Tiffany, who is almost certainly due at basically the same time as Josie, didn't test pregnant during pregnancy roulette.) I'll use 25th December as the due date until further information is given. With that in mind, Josie announced this pregnancy when she was on or around 38 days of pregnancy (5 weeks, 3 days). This was the family's earliest announcement by far. They announced their pregnancy with Willow at 118 days, Hazel at 105 days and Miles at 76 days. As a family, they have announced earlier with each pregnancy. Their new average to announce is on Day 84 (12 weeks) but with large variation in the data.

Effect on the Data Brooks is Josie and Kelton's fourth child and affects their family's data. The couple had Brooks much earlier than predicted. Brooks arrived 654 days after big brother Miles, compared to the spreadsheet estimate of 914 days. This birth was 1.15 SDs early compared to the prediction. It also means Josie and Kelton now have an emerging pattern of having two children close together (Willow-Hazel & Miles-Brooks) with a larger gap in between (there was a spacing of 982 days between Hazel and Miles). This is different to other fundie families tracked, who often just slow down with each and every pregnancy. This pregnancy has sped up Josie and Kelton's future predicted pace.

Josie was 26 when she had Brooks so the pregnancy also impacts on the 25-30 maternal multiplier. The current average within this age range is for a spacing of 657 days, so Josie's fourth spacing was right at the average and hasn't impacted it much. Josie's average non-firstborn pace now stands at 743 days.

So What's Next? Taking Josie and Kelton's average pace and multiplying it by the maternal multiplier, their predicted pace for Baby 5 is 862 days. This would mean a predicted announcement in October 2027 and delivery in April 2028. Josie and Kelton are predicted to have a total of ten children.

[thefundiedata]

Anyone else having a problem with tumblr going back and mature content flagging half their blog? Only noticed when I scrolled back to check my 2025 predictions (which I did terribly at) but think it's relatively recent. Not much rhyme or reason to which posts have been flagged. For each which has been flagged, similar ones haven't. Very confused. Some family overviews flagged, others not. Some pregnancy/birth announcements flagged but others not (thought this might be to do with prior loss but that's not consistent either).

[thefundiedata]

Upcoming Events | December 2025 - May 2026

Just Occurred: Nothing this month

Confirmed Events:

Josie and Kelton Balka are expecting their fourth child. Estimated birth date of 11th December. Lawson and Tiffany Bates are expecting their second child. Predicted birthday of 12th December, due date 23rd December. Jana and Stephen Wissmann are expecting their first child. Estimated birth date 25th January. John and Abbie Duggar are expecting their third child. Estimated birth date of 26th January. Tori and Bobby Smith are expecting their sixth child. Estimated birth date of 8th March. Zach and Whitney Bates are expecting their sixth child. Predicted birth date of 1st May, due date 8th May. Kaylee and Jonathan Hill are expecting their second child. Estimated birth date 16th June.

Predicted Events:

December: 3rd - James Duggar and Lydia Swanson get engaged. 7th - Phillip Rodrigues enters a courtship.

January: 19th - Jed and Katey Duggar announce Baby 5. 23rd - Joy and Austin Forsyth announce Baby 4 (1 SD late). 27th - Warden Bates enters a pre-courtship.

February: 2nd - Nurie and Nathan Keller announce Baby 4 (1 SD late). 12th - Jason and Maddie Duggar announce Baby 1 (2 SDs late). 14th - Isaiah Bates and Sarah get married (assuming September engagement).

March: 12th - Trace and Lydia Bates announce Baby 3.

April: 13th - Katie and Travis Clark announce Baby 3.

May: Nothing predicted

[thefundiedata]

In case you don’t wanna watch their whole clickbaity YouTube video, it’s a second boy for Lawson and Tiffany

Thanks for sending this in. I'd say it's a shame for the couple that the news was spoiled several months ago by Zach but I'm not the one showing my child off to the wider internet for money.

[thefundiedata]

An (updated) Overview of the Bates Family!

Zach and Whitney Bates

Years Married: 11 Children: Bradley Gilvin (11), Kaci Lynn (9), Khloé Eileen (6), Jadon Carl (4), Lily Jo (2) & Ella Jane (0) Predicted Family Size: 6 children

Michael and Brandon Keilen

Years Married: 10 Children: 2 foster children. Predicted Family Size: 0 biological children.

Erin and Chad Paine

Years Married: 12 Children: Charles Stephen IV (11), Brooklyn Elise (9), Everly Hope (8), Holland Grace (6), Finley Marie (4), William Gage (2), Henry Blythe (0) Predicted Family Size: 7 children

Nathan and Esther Bates

Years Married: 4 Children: Kenna Joy (3), Graham Alan (1). Predicted Family Size: 7 children

Lawson and Tiffany Bates

Years Married: 2 Children: William Daniel (1) & Theodore Lawson (0). Predicted Family Size: 8 children

Alyssa and John Webster

Years Married: 11 Children: Allie Jane (11), Lexi Mae (9), Zoey Joy (8), Maci Jo (5), Rhett Alan (3). Predicted Family Size: 5 children

Tori and Bobby Smith

Years Married: 7 Children: Robert Ellis Smith IV "Kade" (7), Kolter Gray (6), Charlotte Raine (4), Cambree Layne (3), Weston Slade "Slade" (1) & Gage Turner (0). Predicted Family Size: 13 children

Trace and Lydia Bates

Years Married: 3 Children: Ryker Cruise (2), Kaia Rae (0) Predicted Family Size: 8 children

Carlin and Evan Stewart

Years Married: 6 Children: Layla Rae (6), Zade Patrick (4), Navy Kate (0) Predicted Family Size: 7 children

Josie and Kelton Balka

Years Married: 7 Children: Willow Kristy (6), Hazel Sloane (4), Miles Kelton (2), Brooks Hallum (0). Predicted Family Size: 10 children

Katie and Travis Clark

Years Married: 3 Children: Hailey James (3), Harvey Gray (1). Predicted Family Size: 10 children

Jackson and Emerson Bates

Years Married: 2 Children: Baby Boy (0) Predicted Family Size: 5 children

Isaiah and Sarah Bates

Years Married: 0 Predicted Family Size: 7 children

Warden Bates and Kaybrie Patterson

Years Married: Engaged Predicted Family Size: 8 children

Unmarried Bates (Addallee, Ellie, Callie, Judson and Jeb)

Predicted Family Size: 8 children (the boys), 9 children (the girls)

Total Predicted GrandBates: 144

[thefundiedata]

I’m sorry, you’ve probably mentioned before, but why don’t you predict for Justin and Claire? Did I miss something about fertility struggles?

Once they hit 10 SDs late, and therefore so incredibly out of the norm it wasn’t going to work for predictions any more, I stopped predicting for them. As far as I’m aware, they haven’t announced anything and could possibly still have the large quiverful family his parents dreamed for him, especially given how young they are. I’m just not predicting anything unless or until we get an update from them.

[thefundiedata]

An (updated) Overview of the Duggar Family!

J*** and Anna Duggar

Years Married: 17 Children: Mackynzie Renee (16), Michael James (14), Marcus Anthony (12), Meredith Grace (10), Mason Garrett (8), Maryella Hope (5) & Madyson Lily (4). Predicted Family Size: 7 Children

John and Abbie Duggar

Years Married: 7 Children: Grace Annette (5), Charlie (3) & one on the way. Predicted Family Size: 4 children

Jana and Stephen Wissmann

Years Married: 1 Children: One on the way. Predicted Family Size: 3 children

Jill and Derick Dillard

Years Married: 11 Children: Israel David (10), Samuel Scott (8) & Frederick Michael (3). Predicted Family Size: 3 children

Jessa and Ben Seewald

Years Married: 11 Children: Spurgeon Elliot (10), Henry Wilberforce (8), Ivy Jane (6), Fern Elliana (4), George Augustine (1) & Edward Owen (0). Predicted Family Size: 10 children

Jinger and Jeremy Vuolo

Years Married: 9 Children: Felicity Nicole (7), Evangeline Jo (4) & Finnegan Charles (0). Predicted Family Size: 5 children.

Joseph and Kendra Duggar

Years Married: 8 Children: Garrett David (7), Addison Renee (6), Brooklyn Praise (4) & Justus (3). Predicted Family Size: 9 children.

Josiah and Lauren Duggar

Years Married: 7 Children: Bella Milagro (6), Daisy (3), Ezra (2) & Baby 4. Predicted Family Size: 11 children.

Joy and Austin Forsyth

Years Married: 8 Children: Gideon Martyn (7), Evelyn Mae (5) and Gunner James (2). Predicted Family Size: 8 children.

Jedidiah and Katelyn Duggar

Years Married: 4 Children: Truett Oliver (3), Nora Kate (2), Elsie Kate (0) and Emma Kate (0). Predicted Family Size: 11 children

Jeremiah and Hannah Duggar

Years Married: 3 Children: Brynley Noelle (2), Brielle Grace (1) and Emery Jane (0). Predicted Family Size: 11 children

Jason and Maddie Duggar

Years Married: 1 Children: 0 Predicted Family Size: 5 children

James Duggar and Lydia Swanson

Years Married: Not married Children: 0 Predicted Family Size: 9 children

Justin and Claire Duggar

Years Married: 4 Children: 0 Predicted Family Size: 0 children

Jackson, Johannah, Jennifer, Jordyn and Josie Duggar

Predicted Family Size: 7 children (Jackson); 8 children each (lost girls)

Total Predicted GrandDuggars: 135

[fundieshaderoom]

Carver Bowers Has Been Indicted

Bowers, Carver James Mugshot | 2025-11-01 13:06:00 Covington County, Alabama Arrest

Alabama, Covington County, BOWERS, CARVER JAMES - 2025-11-01 13:06:00 mugshot, arrest, booking report

His bond is set at $150,000.

[thefundiedata]

Genuinely what is Haley going to do when her husband goes to prison and she’s still, what, a teenager? Just turned 20? At some point she has to turn on him surely?

It’s bad enough when fundies are out there defending truly mediocre men. The fact they defend straight up predators is unimaginable.