The war with Russia: what’s next?
Over the last few days I chatted to a few people on my vision of possible future events. It looks like it makes sense to share it to a wider audience.TLDR: Putin has missed and the world sees it. He has nothing to negotiate with. Soon Russian “elites” would see it. Primary danger is that he can start a nuclear war.Now to the details:Current state:
The whole dictatorship works while the dictator is strong. In war with Ukraine he put all in and does not have anything for backup. There is no even slightly fair reasoning for the world. There is no proper PR in Russia. “We are protecting Donbas” is not believable. PR campaign is lost.
No war victories. All regional centers are under Ukrainian control. Assault on Kyiv is literally dying. There is nothing to show at home, there is nothing to use during negotiations.
World sees it. Sanctions are fully cutting economic connections. All pro-Putin western politicians are publicly against the war. The only ally is Belarus dictator Lukashenko and even Lukashenko is already negotiating with France.
What are possible next options?
Almost impossible, but I still list it here for completeness. Russia's assault on Kyiv succeeds. I’d say even in this case Ukraine army & people will continue to resist.
Negotiations. Well, that’s they only option for Putin to hold onto power a bit more. But he has nothing to bring home, nothing to propose for negotiations. The only option I see is “I give you occupied eastern Ukraine, but I keep Crimea”, but I doubt Ukraine would take it. Also it’s almost impossible to put war on pause for negotiations. There is no front line, everything’s mixed.
Everything goes as now. Sanctions are being deployed. Ukraine continues to fight back. Protests everywhere including Russia. And Russian SWAP is lying dead in Ukrainian plains and can’t stop the protests. After some time Georgia / Moldova / Belarus begin to solve old issues. Then goes Japan, maybe China.
And actually everyone is already thinking about this third option. Including the Russian “elite”. And they start to understand that giving up or removing Putin and few other people is the simplest way to solve the problem. Then you can negotiate, anathematize evil and so on. That’s why communist deputies started to say that they did not vote for the war. That’s where “no war” posts by Russian golden kids come from.And it is vital for Putin not to get it first. Because he has a nuclear briefcase and he can actually order to use strategic or tactical nuclear weapons.












