Manila Typhoon Center

@tycentralph

OBJECTIVES --------------- 1. Provide information regarding current Tropical Cyclones in the Western Pacific. 2. Provide timely and understandable information to viewers especially those to be/currently affected by the coming tropical cyclone. 3. Explain typhoons in a manner that the average person can understand. ABOUT MTC -------------- MTC shall post info regarding Tropical Cyclones warnings from important agencies, track maps, images as soon as data is available. Included also are invest areas of cloudiness or Low Pressure Areas. MTC will also provide its own forecasts and warnings as time permitting using extrapolation. Please read disclaimer below. MTC Forecasts posted are taken from data of the following warning agencies and forecasting models are also included. - PAGASA (Philippines) - JMA (Japan) - JTWC of USA - NWS of USA (based in Guam) - KMA (South Korea) - CMA (Beijing, China) - CWB (Taipei, Taiwan) - HKO (Hong Kong) - Other agencies (Thailand, Vietnam, Macao, Cambodia) should data be available. DISCLAIMER --------------- THE MTC FORECASTS IN THIS SITE IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST AND SHOULD NOT BE USED AS SUCH. IT MAY OR MAY NOT BE BACKED BY SOUND METEOROLOGICAL DATA AND IS NOT ENDORSED BY A ANY PROFESSIONAL INSTITUTION OR WEATHER AGENCY. PLEASE DO NOT USE FOR MAKING LIFE OR DEATH DECISIONS. FOR INFORMATION USE ONLY. PLEASE RELY ON YOUR LOCAL WARNING AGENCIES FOR FURTHER ADVISE AND OFFICIAL WARNINGS.

74 posts

Hi Guys, I will be decommissioning this site come September 15. Please go the new and much better website.

Tropical Weather 5 September 2011

CURRENT TROPICAL CYCLONES: * TROPICAL DEPRESSION TALAS (15W) - 36.8N 134.9E… * TROPICAL STORM NORU(16W) - 32.5N 149.6E… NRL INVEST AREAS: * 90W - 16.9N 131.2E… more on this in a little while with the MTC Tropical Disturbance Advisory. NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS AS OF MODEL RUN OF 12z (8PM 04 Sept) * GFS - Suspect areas in the West Philippine Sea (17N, 115N), 90W to move ENE. * NOGAPS - No forecast run yet * ECMWF - Suspect areas near Vietnam, 90W to drift NE. * FIMY - 2 suspect areas forming north of the Marianas, drifting west. * UKMET - Suspect area in the West Philippine Sea by 12 Sept * FIM8 - 2 suspect areas forming north of the Marianas, and in the West Phil sea. * CMC - Several circulations, all in the north of the marianas NOAA FORMATION PROBABLILITY:

Tropical Weather 15 August 2011

Here is a short summary of what is being watched over in the Western Pacific.

NRL INVEST AREAS:

94W - 3.9N 150.5E... more on this in a little while with the MTC Tropical Disturbance Advisory.

NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS AS OF MODEL RUN OF 12z (8PM 14 Aug)

NCEP - A circulation to form around 18N 150E, NE of Guam by 20 Aug

NOGAPS - A circulation to form right in the Marianas by 18 Aug, then track NW.

ECMWF - No appreciable circulation formation until 20 Aug

FIMY - A circulation to form around 20N 150E, NE of Guam by 20 Aug

UKMET - No appreciable circulation formation until 20 Aug

FIM8 - A circulation to form around 20N 150E, NE of Guam by 20 Aug

CMC - Several circulations, most significant one to form right in the Marianas by 17 Aug

GFS - A circulation to form around 15N 135E, E of Luzon by 17 Aug

NOAA FORMATION PROBABLILITY:

#Circulation #LPA #Models

Daily Tropical Weather updates

MTC shall be posting a daily tropical update starting today August 13.

It shall contain the following:

INVEST AREAS - Areas of tropical activity being watched by the US Naval Research Laboratory's Tropical Cyclone Page and their Tropical Cyclone (bagyo) formation probabilities. This will be updated every 12 hours.

MODEL FORECASTS - Tropical Cyclone formation probabilities from the available computer models.

NOAA Formation Probability - Areas that NOAA thinks that TC formation is probable.

MTC shall not make any effort to try and make a weather forecast :)

Powerful category 3 Typhoon Muifa (Kabayan) bearing down on Okinawa Island, Ryukyu Islands of Japan, Packing winds of 175kph...

Radar image courtesy of Japan Meteorological Agency...

On a side note, hope our local PAGASA will have something like this soon :)

Here is another Muifa/Kabayan shot :)

Infrared image of Super Typhoon Kabayan/Muifa, East of Northern Luzon, packing 1-minute average winds of 260 kilometers per hour and has remained stationary.

Just had to save this. Amazing pinhole eye of Super Typhoon KABAYAN/MUIFA.

Manila dodges bullet as Juaning now a SEVERE TROPICAL STORM, Moves northwest into Aurora Province.

As of 8am this morning

15.7N 122.1E... 60km East of Baler, Aurora... 65km South of Casiguran, Aurora...165 km Northeast of Metro Manila

Winds of 100 kph with gusts of 120kph now near the center... Moving Northwest at 10kph

LANDFALL THREAT: Aurora Province today

#Juaning #Nockten #10W #Severe Tropical Storm

Huge incomplete eyewall of Tropical Storm Juaning.

Newest track as of 11pm.

Latest Satellite Image 11:01 pm tonight... Storm trying to form a proto-eyewall in the West and Southern sectors of the core...

Juaning(Nockten) on the way to Polillio Island and Central Luzon

POSITION ESTIMATE AT 11PM

14.6N 122.6E... 65 km Northwest of Daet, Camarines Norte... 170km East of Quezon City... 100 km East-Southeast of Infanta, Quezon... 25 km Southeast of Jomalig Island, Polillio Island group...

Maximum winds of 85 kph (possibly higher) with gusts of 100 kph... Moving to the West-Northwest at 11kph...

LANDFALL possible in Polillio Island in the next 2-4 hours then make another landfall North of Infanta Quezon.

Last visible image from NOAA's satellite, also taken 5:30 pm today

Latest Sat pic of Juaning, 5:30 pm

courtesy of NOAA-RAMMB

MTC forecast track as of latest warnings posted 5pm

PAGASA STORM WARNINGS as of 5pm

SIGNAL NO. 2

Camarines Provinces Albay Catanduanes Pangasinan Nueva Ecija Zambales Pampanga Tarlac Bulacan Bataan Rizal Cavite Laguna Batangas Quezon Polillo Island Metro Manila

SIGNAL NO. 1

Ilocos Norte Ilocos Sur Apayao Cagayan Abra Kalinga Isabela Mt. Province Ifugao La Union Benguet Nueva Vizcaya Quirino Aurora Mindoro Provinces Lubang Is. Marinduque Romblon Burias Is. Masbate Ticao Is. Sorsogon

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