The Road to President Sanders
Bernie Sanders has already proven that his campaign is real and the possibilities are legitimate. But now his greatest challenge has only begun: systematically dismantling the Clinton juggernaut.Â
The most recent polls in both Iowa and New Hampshire show a statistically tight race between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders for the Democratic nomination. His social media presence is a mammoth. His popularity among America’s most progressive archipelagos - college students, activists, public sector employees, the former-hippie Baby Boomers - are all brimming with excitement for Sanders.Â
No. He’s not Howard Dean, or Bill Bradley, or Gary Hart. This enthusiasm is unprecedented. Nineteen year old biology majors will be turning out for Sanders in a way that people have never seen before. Young people are getting registered for the first time. The liberal electorate is probably going to swell for Sanders. There is a coming populist tidal wave that the data-fetishists like Nate Silver and Robby Mooks don’t even see coming.Â
As a student at a public university, an employee for a fast food corporation, and an intern with local elected officials, I see the coalition coming together before my very eyes. I can count the number of people voting for Hillary Clinton on one hand. Sanders would need dozens of hands......
This isn't to say Sanders doesn’t have serious structural flaws in his campaign that could derail him. He does. But more people as of now are naysayers towards the underdog then pushers. I think it’s important to begin with my warning, that the wave is coming, and Hillary Clinton (or Joe Biden for the matter) better be preparing to surf it.Â
I have my own hutches as to why the national polling still indicates towards Clinton’s lead unbeatable (at least beyond Iowa and New Hampshire, where the polls have been more indicative of the Sanders wave). I feel like the people who would vote for Sanders don’t really answer home telephone lines. Hillary has the name recognition at this point but among liberals on the ground really paying attention.....she’s already lost them. It boggles me, but don’t forget, these past elections in Israel and the United Kingdom the polling completely underestimated the winner.Â
South Carolina: A strong Sanders showing is still a victory for him.Â
For a lot of the past summer I thought Iowa was the crucial state. If Sanders won it decisively, it would provide him with enough legitimacy to seriously contest Hillary Clinton’s popular and establishment support in every other state. This was Obama’s plan. He knew he would have the black vote in the more diverse states, so for him winning Iowa was the ultimate case to make to the rest of the party apparatus.
Sanders is the opposite. He’s still not polling too well with minority voters (although I don't’t think it directly matters as much as Nate Silver does), but his insurgency has solidified best in Iowa and New Hampshire. He is going to win those states. I don't know if Clinton sees it coming. But just to be safe, she is lowering expectations for herself. Not the worst call. Her worst-case-scenario is routing Sanders in South Carolina and then Super Tuesday.Â
The electorate in South Carolina is probably too moderate and non-white for Sanders’ brand to sweep the state. I have a hutch that he can, because there are people who identify with his cause EVERYWHERE, and they are enthusiastic, but it doesn't even matter. Sanders coalition won’t run through the Deep South. If he puts up a fight, he can move on to Super Tuesday. He’s a long-distance runner.Â
Sanders shouldn't double-down on South Carolina. Those two weeks in February, he should spearhead as close as possible for a national mobilization before March 1st. He should shoot to win 35% in South Carolina and keep moving forward. (Remember, Clinton crushed Obama in New Hampshire in 2008. He kept moving forward).Â
Super Tuesday: Sanders has to start preparing now. The momentum must be organized.Â
March 1st will be the Gettysburg of the 2016 primary. I already know deep in my bones that Sanders will put up a fight. But Hillary is already thinking about this date. Sanders better be too.Â
In 2008, Super Tuesday a draw on paper, with Hillary Clinton winning more popular votes in more states, but party insiders will say that Hillary’s very last chance died on March 1st. Obama had built up a very organized national apparatus in too many states, had racked up endorsements undermining Clinton’s capitulating establishment support, and had demonstrated to the entire world that he could draw millions of people to vote for him. Plus, the media had fallen in love with him........Â
Sanders will have a tougher time. His campaign is less corporate in nature, but he should think about expanding upon Obama’s grassroots organizing efforts. He already has signed up hundreds of thousands of volunteers across the country. His campaign has an explicitly national strategy, having visited every quadrant of the nation. He can pull off a Super Tuesday win.Â
A Super Tuesday victory almost guarantees him the White House
If he beats Hillary Clinton in just enough places, which I think he’s on track to do considering the swelling of the electorate to sweep him into office, he can win the nomination. The establishment will be forced to accept, the liberal media will end their blackout, and Hillary Clinton (who will run her organization into the ground because John Podesta was wrong from the beginning) will probably capitulate.Â
And you bet your ass he can beat the Republicans.Â
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