United States Common Sense

Making sense of government, policy, and data. Visit our website at www.uscommonsense.org

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Welfare State? Rates of U.S. Children on Welfare by County

The map above shows the percent of children under 18 living in households that received some form of welfare from 2012-2013. Welfare includes any one or more of the following: Supplemental Security Income (SSI), Cash Public Assistance Income, or Food Stamps.

According to the map, welfare recipients seem to be most concentrated among the Southern and Western (particularly Pacific Northwest) states. The majority of counties of the states located in these regions have high numbers of welfare recipients. Mississippi, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Oregon had the highest percent (around 35%) of children under 18 living in households that receive welfare.

Mississippi had the highest percent (38%) of children under 18 living in households that receive welfare, and the highest poverty rate (23%) in the country.

Comparing the counties around the country, the top 3 counties with the highest percent of children under 18 living in households receiving welfare were Todd (South Dakota), Quitman (Georgia), and Clay (Georgia) with Todd having the highest number (78%).

On the other hand, Skagway Municipality (Alaska), Mineral (Colorado), and Wheatland (Montana) are the top 3 counties with the lowest percent of children under 18 living in households receiving welfare. Unsurprisingly, these counties also have a low level of child poverty with less than 10% of children below the poverty level.  

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Union Workers’ Median Wages Are on Avg 1.3 Times Higher than Non-Union Workers

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, Table 41, http://www.bls.gov/cps/tables.htm#weekearn.

According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, workers who are members of unions or are represented by a union earn more than non-union workers with the same job. From 2001 to 2014, union workers’ median annual earnings was on average 1.3 times higher than non-union workers. This translated into an average of $11,031 more per year for union members.

However, there are some exceptions. Earnings differences varied by industry and workers’ education level. For example, in some industries such as the Financial Activities , Professional and Business Services and the Federal Government , non-union members earned slightly more (on average 9.7% more) than union members. Additionally, union membership boosted earnings for workers with less education, but did not do much for highly-educated workers.

Wage differences are particularly important in light of growing concerns about Americans’ and especially the middle class’ stagnant wages. Even as the country’s productivity recovers, wages have lagged, meaning that the benefits of the economic recovery may not be reaching American families. Thus, identifying a range of factors that may help contribute to wage growth, including union membership, is a policy priority.

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GDP Grew Faster than Median Income in Each U.S. State

Image Source: PEW Charitable Trusts 

A recent analysis by the PEW Charitable Trusts shows that from 2000 to 2013, GDP per capita grew faster than median incomes in each U.S state. This means that while states boosted their economic productivity over the 13 year period, increased productivity did not translate into higher median incomes.

The visualization above shows the gap between GDP per capita growth and median income growth per state. North Dakota had the highest gap between state GDP per capita growth and median income (66.9%) – a trend driven by the state's recent energy boom. By comparison, Idaho was the state with the smallest gap (2.7%), and the District of Columbia’s median income actually grew faster than GDP per capita (a -4.1% gap).  

These findings are consistent with previous research on GDP growth and stagnant median income trends in the United States (see figure below). Economists point to this divergence between pay and productivity as a result of technological advancement, the decline of unions, and growing gaps between executive-level pay and middle-class workers’ compensation.

Implications

There are wide ranging implications and questions for this decade of divergence between GDP growth and median incomes. The growing gap between GDP growth and median incomes could foreshadow growing income inequality. Additionally, median income measures generally track with how satisfied the public feels about the economy – and indicator with political implications. Finally, rising economic productivity that doesn’t translate into real economic growth for the middle class raises concerns about whether Americans’ standards of living are actually improving. In short, GDP growth isn’t everything.

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Friday News Roundup: It’s Audit Season

7/10/15

This week we’re taking a break from the regular news roundup format to highlight the results of important audits. #Oversightmatters

California Department of Justice is failing to address a backlog of more than 257,000 people who are potentially prohibited from having guns. A recent state audit found that the DOJ is on pace to clear its backlog of people flagged by mental health facilities and courts sometime in 2022. That’s 7 years from now. 

 A state-run audit of West Covina finances reveals multiple financial stumbles, excessive spending, and out-of-control management. Located in the San Gabriel Valley, West Covina rarely makes the news. But after a city council member and a state Assemblyman requested an independent audit last year, the state controller’s office began an in-depth review of the city’s fiscal state, finding costly, potentially unethical deals, large expense reports on meals and hotels, and more.

Failing grade issued for California’s lack of health pricing transparency. Hospitals, clinics, and physician offices in California are failing to provide price information accessible to patients through website or claims databases. 45 other states were also issued failing grades.

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Friday News Roundup

6/26/15

California

·         Changes to the University of California pension system. CACS Research Director Adam Tatum weighs in for the Sacramento Bee: After the UC tuition debate shed light on pension pressures to its budget, the state’s premier public education system implemented a new cap on pensions and could move from a guaranteed benefit to defined contribution plan.

·         Hundreds of layoffs in store for LAUSD staff in newly approved budget. After eight years of salary freezes, LAUSD has finally offered teachers and administrators a 10% pay hike. But the deal comes with hundreds of layoffs for staff – especially in adult education.  

·         CalPERS returns fall short. CalPERS, the state’s public employee pension system, is short on investment returns this year. Of the expected 7.5% annual target, CalPERS investments have only earned 3%. Barring a serious market turnaround, CalPERS officials state it will likely face a funding shortfall this year.

Nation

·         First year of "pay for performance" Medicare incentives rewards few providers for satisfactory performance: Out of 1,010 large physician groups evaluated for the new Medicare pay-for-performance incentive, only 14 are receiving payment increases this year. Many physicians and groups have opted out of reporting data on quality and costs.

·         Fourteen states have still not enacted 2016 budgets. Politics, sluggish revenue, old budget challenges slow budget processes in many states.

·         US is only “advanced” country to see decline in labor force participation rate in past 15 years (see graph above). In 2013, less than 73% of the U.S.’s working-aged men and women were working or seeking work. Compared to 7 other industrialized nations, only France had a lower labor force participation rate.

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Data Vis of the Week: Does Per Pupil Expense Relate to Student Performance?

Each year the Census Bureau releases data on how much states spend on public and secondary education. In our most recent analysis, we matched that data up against average student performance on the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) 8th grade math test. Here’s what we found: 

The relationship between school spending and average student performance on standardized tests is very weak. 

Readers should consider a few things in thinking about this relationship. First, school spending is affected by many factors: cost-of-living variation necessitates different spending on teacher and staff salaries. Second, this measure of school expense simply totals all different types of school expenditures, which means that in this data, we can't tell what exactly schools are spending money on. Without a better understanding of where the money goes, we should be careful about assuming that more money will mean better educations.

Finally, average standardized test scores are far from a comprehensive measure of student learning. Schools may be spending more on support systems that improve student socio-emotional and behavioral well being. Or, school expenses may be driven up by specific programs that target high-needs students. Those expenses may not drive up average test scores, but could be considered important investments in students.

All in all, this data and growing body of work suggest that increasing school spending alone will not likely improve student performance. 

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Friday News Roundup

6/19/15

California

Tesla takes $15 million in tax credits after promising 40,000 Bay Area jobs. The LA Times reports that Musk’s Tesla, SolarCity, and SpaceX have received $4.9 billion in government support. Overall, the California Governor’s Office of Business and Economic Development has awarded $150 million in tax breaks to California companies.  

6,400 CalPERS members will begin paying more into their pensions next month. CalPERS members who belong to a lower-benefit “Tier 2” plan will increase their member contribution from 3% to 3.75%.

Despite multiple well-publicized attempts, SFPD still has not deployed body cameras. A new investigative report by KQED tells the story of the San Francisco Police Department’s complicated relationship with taser and body camera manufacturer Taser. The estimated five-year coast of equipping all officers: more than $21 million

Nation

Retirement cities are taking the cake for fastest-growing economies in the United States. Bolstered by baby boomers, projections show retirement communities in Florida made up more than half of 2016’s fastest growing populations and economies. This year marks a fade out of oil boom towns, which dominated this list for the past few years.

Teachers are fleeing Arizona schools because of serious under-funding, says a new analysis from the Arizona Department of Education. The report comes on the heels of the Census’s annual update on school finance, which ranks Arizona among the lowest funded education systems in the country.  

The FBI has no idea how many hate crimes occur each year. The tragic church massacre in Charleston, SC reminds us that without better data, we cannot completely describe the scope of the problem.

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California

$340 million of emergency drought relief money left unspent. After Governor Brown declared a state of emergency for the drought last year, lawmakers set aside $687 million for drought aid. But nearly half of the money meant to go to water development and relief.

Scientists hope growing El Nino will bring needed winter storms, but only after a dry and hot summer. El Nino prospects 

Schools to receive $6.1 billion more than anticipated after a lucrative year in California’s tax revenue. The funds will be directed to school districts via the Local Control Funding Formula (LCFF), the state’s new school finance system.  This year’s LCFF budget is now at $53.1 billion, or close to 90% of the funding targets originally anticipated to be filled in 2020.

Nation

Hackers likely exposed personnel information for 14 million current and former U.S. government employees. Reports from the American Federation of Government Employees claim that the OPM hack last week went much further than originally reported by the Obama administration.  Officials continue to claim the hack came from the Chinese, although it is unclear whether they are accusing the Chinese government or individuals in China.

The 50th anniversary of Medicare sparks new discussions about the future of the program and the cost of healthcare. The country’s aging population and the rising cost of healthcare is driving Medicare costs upwards. Medicare spending will likely more than double in the next 20 years. Can new healthcare technologies bring costs down? 

New analysis from the NYT argues that the student debt issue may be smaller than we thought. About two-thirds of students who attend college end up with less than $10k in student debt. Only 2% have more than $50k. 43% of college-goers do not borrow at all. But 47% of students earning a master’s degree borrow more than $40,000.

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Welfare State? Rates of U.S. Children on Welfare by County

The map above shows the percent of children under 18 living in households that received some form of welfare from 2012-2013. Welfare includes any one or more of the following: Supplemental Security Income (SSI), Cash Public Assistance Income, or Food Stamps.

According to the map, welfare recipients seem to be most concentrated among the Southern and Western (particularly Pacific Northwest) states. The majority of counties of the states located in these regions have high numbers of welfare recipients. Mississippi, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Oregon had the highest percent (around 35%) of children under 18 living in households that receive welfare.

Mississippi had the highest percent (38%) of children under 18 living in households that receive welfare, and the highest poverty rate (23%) in the country.

Comparing the counties around the country, the top 3 counties with the highest percent of children under 18 living in households receiving welfare were Todd (South Dakota), Quitman (Georgia), and Clay (Georgia) with Todd having the highest number (78%).

On the other hand, Skagway Municipality (Alaska), Mineral (Colorado), and Wheatland (Montana) are the top 3 counties with the lowest percent of children under 18 living in households receiving welfare. Unsurprisingly, these counties also have a low level of child poverty with less than 10% of children below the poverty level.  

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Friday News Roundup

California

Assisted death bill approved by CA senate. The Senate’s approval follows a California Medical Association’s new support for allowing assisted death. The bill includes protections against abuse and requires patients to make two separate oral requests to their physicians.

CA senate approves health coverage for many immigrants here illegally. SB4, passed on Tuesday by the Senate, will allow up to 240,000 minors to sign up for Medi-Cal and some low-income adults to sign up for a program similar to Medi-Cal.

California water use dropped 13.5% in April. Southern California conservation lagged behind the rest of the state.

National

Chinese breach data of 4 million federal workers. The White House has confirmed that Chinese hackers (the same ones behind Antehm and Premera’s data breaches earlier this year) have hacked personnel data including Social Security numbers, birthdates, medical data, and some bank accounts.

Economy added 280,000 jobs in May. Following last week’s news that the economic recovery is in a slump, these new labor data show some signs of underlying strength.

Beau Biden, vice president’s son, dies at 46 of brain cancer. Beau was a rising star in Delaware politics. He is survived by his wife Hallie and two children. His memorial service occurred today in Delaware.

[onaissues]

Pew study: When it comes to political news, Facebook has become local TV for millennials » Nieman Journalism Lab

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Almost 400 Fatally Shot by Police This Year

Washington Post journalists have identified 385 civilians who were shot and killed by police thus far in 2015. Using news, police records, and other original reporting, the Post’s database includes the deceased’s age, race, gender, location, and general circumstances, including whether the victim was armed or unarmed.

Here are some of their findings (mostly verbatim): 

More than 80% of those killed were armed with potentially lethal objects.

Sixteen percent of those killed were carrying a toy or were unarmed.

Among unarmed victims, 2/3 were Black or Hispanic.

Less than 1% of the fatal shootings have resulted in an officer being charged with a crime.

Eight of those killed were younger than 18. 

Nearly a quarter of those killed were identified as mentally ill. 

About half the time, police were responding to people seeking help with domestic disturbances or other complex social situations. 

Underlying the data is a serious problem of under reporting of police shootings: almost everyone is in agreement that these numbers are understated, with less than 3% of state and local police agencies reporting fatal shootings to the FBI. 

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Friday News Roundup

U.S. Attorney General takes on FIFA corruption. In a bold first move as Attorney General, Loretta Lynch indicts 14 FIFA officials and takes on a massive corruption scheme involving bribery, fraud, and money laundering. 

Texans face dangerous flash floods. At least 35 people have died in Texas, Mexico, and Oklahoma in recent flash flooding. 

Warriors advance to NBA finals for first time in 40 years. Bay Area fans rejoice in the Warriors’ long-awaited trip to the NBA finals, led by Steph Curry. 

US economy shrinks 0.7% in first quarter of 2015. Contrary to initial predictions, the first quarter showed a slight contraction. Findings are leaving analysts concerned about the underlying strength of the latest economic recovery. 

Nebraska ends the death penalty. Defying the Nebraskan governor’s veto, the unicameral Nebraskan legislature voted this week to overturn the state’s death penalty policy, citing fiscal waste and ineffectual policy implementation as main arguments.  

ISIS changes strategy in control over ancient city of Palmyra. ISIS begins to offer essential municipal services in Palmyra. 

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Out-of-State Students at the UC

Source: The Upshot (NYT)/ National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System

“The University of California, Berkeley, enrolled 384 fewer in-state freshmen in 2012 compared with 2000, while out-of-state American students grew by more than 300 and the number of international students increased eightfold...U.C.L.A., by contrast, enrolled 1,046 international freshmen in a single year, almost 25 times more in little more than a decade. The number of in-state slots at U.C.L.A. barely changed, even as the number of in-state applications surged. “ 

This quote come from a recent New York Times article on how in-state tuition breaks at the country’s top public universities may be fading away in light of increasing out-of-state and international student enrollment. . From 2002 to 2012, the number of out-of-state and international students rose rapidly, while the number of in-state students remained virtually unchanged. 

Tuition for in-state students costs about $12-13,000 per year, while out-of-state students (including international students) pay about $36,000. UC policy makers argue that enrolling more international students helps to offset the costs of in-state students. 

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This Week in Headlines

An oil spill along the Santa Barbara coast could take months to clean up. The oil pipeline was owned by Plains, one of the country’s largest pipeline companies. Plains has pledged to “do the right thing” and stick with the clean up process.

The Los Angeles City Council approved a $15 minimum wage hike, to come into full effect by 2020. LA is now the largest city with a minimum wage that high.  

As the Patriot Act comes up for renewal, Presidential nominee Rand Paul spoke for 10.5 hours against NSA cell phone spying. His speech may not actually do anything, but it is making the news.

The U.S. Senate advanced the terms necessary for President Obama to “fast-track” the controversial Trans-Pacific Partnership deal.  

The California Medical Association drops its long-standing opposition to assisted suicide. Says the CMA’s policy-making speaker:  “Physicians’ opinion remains divided, but the majority of physicians believe you should either allow this and participate or you should be neutral and allow the physician and the patient to make the decision.”

The drought continues, and some of California’s most senior water rights holders will soon be facing water cuts. The last time that happened was 1977.

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Top Headlines of the Week

This week’s top California headlines: 

Gov. Jerry Brown released his revised budget proposal yesterday. It includes $7.5 billion more than anticipated for school spending. 

New report out says that robberies in Oakland remain a problem. 

The California Senate approved a controversial school vaccine bill, despite some death threats to the bill’s sponsor. 

The CA Dept of Conservation failed to meet their deadline for reporting on the oil industry’s water use. 

California now has the highest gas prices in the nation, dethroning Hawaii. 

San Jose will impose mandatory water rationing on 1 million people, giving them monthly allotments.