Oregon is in a State of Emergency – We Need to Start Acting Like it in the Rogue Valley
Here in Southern Oregon we enjoy a slower pace of life. It is part of what makes this region so special and draws visitors from all over the nation and abroad. However, acting too slow on learning the lessons of the COVID-19 outbreak within our own state, nationally and globally will lead to dire circumstances locally if we don’t act fast. We need to start engaging in social distancing starting now. Here’s why:
1. First, there has been misinformation that the new COVID-19 illness is the flu. This is simply untrue. One key difference, virology aside, is that there is currently no vaccine. Also, one study from China CDC suggests that COVID-19 is more than 20 times deadlier than the flu.
2. On Thursday, March 12, the Oregon Health Authority announced that the amount of new confirmed COVID-19 cases in Oregon has reached 24 in eleven counties. The latest cases had no known close contacts with any other confirmed cases, and are considered community-spread.
3. On March 11, the Jackson County Department of Health and Human Services held a press conference. At the time of the conference, there were no hospitalizations of COVID-19 in Jackson County. However, according to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) the average time to develop symptoms after contracting the virus (the incubation period) is 2 to 14 days. Research from the National Center for Biotechnology Information shows that the median incubation period is 5 days, (this report also states that in 1% of cases, symptoms can appear after 14 days). According to the CDC while it is believed that people are the most contagious when they are the sickest, some spread may be possible before symptoms appear. Additionally, because testing is so limited due to a vast undersupply of diagnostic test kits, it’s unclear exactly who has the virus. By the time that someone has tested positive for the virus, they have likely spread it to others.
4. We live in a very inter-connected world with people traveling in and out of the area. Community-spread has been confirmed nation-wide and especially along the West Coast. Considering all of the facts above, I do not believe that it’s a big jump to assume that the virus could already be circulating in our region, as was first seen in Washington where the virus had been circulating undetected for 6 weeks.
5. Accounts from other countries who are in the midst of coping with earlier outbreaks are being reported. Italy is the first western, democratic society dealing with the outbreak, and may give guidance on how we in America might similarly react. Reports from the New York Times document that in Italy, some elderly patients are going untreated and people with pneumonia are being turned away because hospitals don’t have enough capacity to treat everyone. A new report by the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) shows that if current trends in Italy continue for the next week, there will not be enough intensive care units (ICU) beds to treat all the most severe cases.
6. What we do from now on matters. Because we are unable to test for the virus, experts advise that the best thing we can do at this point is to engage in social distancing. This includes things like closing buildings and schools, avoiding crowds and large gatherings, telecommuting and staying home if you feel sick. This should also be practiced along with good hygiene such as washing your hands and not touching your face. Especially with our region’s high percentage of older adults who are particularly vulnerable to complications from the disease, we need to slow the spread of the virus to prevent our hospitals and medical facilities from becoming overwhelmed. The future is not yet written and the decisions leaders and members of the public make today have an impact on how the spread of the virus will play out in the future. By engaging in social distancing we can support our medical staff so they can safely save as many lives as possible and protect the most vulnerable.