Logging in to tumblr because it appears I have more than 15 minutes of free time this weekend, hallelujah. After the twitter reactions to The 100, I thought I’d make a post listing happily ever after queer endgame romances to redirect hurting fans. So if you know of any, send me a chat or something?? Tumblr is different now. I’m old. Get off my lawn etc. Or if you actually want to communicate with me, I’d recommend tweeting me @xceteras!
I’ll be updating the genretvforall tv database this weekend too, if I have enough time. Hope y’all are all doing well! I miss you all and look forward to one day rejoining tumblr on the regular!
With 2015 coming to a close, genretvforall admins Emma and Jessi take a look back at the highlights and lowlights for diversity in genre television. Read on for recommendations, opinions, and a look forward to 2016!
What were your favorite new shows of 2015?
Emma: There were 38 new sci fi, fantasy, horror, and superhero shows in 2015 – and I checked out nearly all of them! Out of this abundance, my favorite was definitely Sense8, a Netflix original sci fi/fantasy series from Andy and Lana Wachowski (Matrix, Cloud Atlas) and J. Michael Straczynski (Babylon 5). It totally drew me in with its diverse characters, progressive themes, and gorgeous, on-location filming. The central idea is that eight strangers become telepathically connected and are pursued by a secret organization. But more so than the plot, it’s the exceptionally diverse and empathetic characters that make this show a standout for me. Netflix also produced my second favorite new show of the year, Jessica Jones. I’m developing superhero fatigue at this point, so it was really refreshing to find such a grounded, relatable heroine and storyline within the genre. Newbie honorable mentions: 12 Monkeys, Agent Carter, Daredevil, Dark Matter, The Expanse, Humans, Into the Badlands, iZombie, Killjoys, Other Space, Powers, and Supergirl.
Jessi: 2015 was a rough year for me, so I spent most of it rewatching Buffy and Gilmore Girls over and over like the TV version of security blankets, which means I missed out on a lot of shows, and a lot are still on my to-watch list, including Emma’s pick Sense8. That said, I fell in love this year, with a little gem on Syfy called Killjoys. If you listened to our podcast you would know I was excited and wary anticipating this new sci fi series about bounty hunters in space coming from Lost Girl creator Michelle Loretta and Orphan Black production company Temple Street. Excited because the team behind it, and because the multiracial black lead Dutch, played by Hannah John-Kamen, looked absolutely badass. Wary because the last time I had been so excited about a new show with a female lead was iZombie which ended up disappointing me by keeping Liv the exceptional girl in a world frequently only populated by men. The teaser for Killjoys Syfy put out did nothing to dissuade my fears. I ended up pleasantly surprised, Dutch’s world is filled with dynamic compelling men and women played by a relatively diverse cast, at least in relation to what we normally get on TV. Dutch herself manages to always remain three dimensional, and even when sexualized escapes falling victim to the male gaze by forever being active and the owner of her own agency. Even the premise, bounty hunters in space, fun enough on its own, quickly expands to show our protagonists caught between sides as a class war brews on their planetary system, The Quad. Throw in a mysterious figure from Dutch’s past and secretive and questionable political machinations and you get one of the best new shows in years.
Introduction
Q. What rating does a show need to be renewed?
Q. Aren’t Nielsen ratings antiquated and pointless?
Q. What about delayed viewing and L+3 and L+7 ratings?
Q. How do I know if I’m in a Nielsen household?
Q. What about online views and On Demand?
Q. I’m under 18 or over 49 - why doesn’t Nielsen care about me?
Q. But my fav show got screwed over by the network?
Q. But someone important said X proves the show is doing well?
Q. What about subscription channels and streaming?
Q. What about Nielsen social ratings from tweets?
Q. What about viewer ratings on IMDB, polls, and comments?
Q. What other financial factors are there in show renewal?
Q. What about what goes on behind closed doors?
Q. What can I do as a fan to help my show get renewed?
Introduction
Nielsen ratings are critical in determining a show’s fate, but they are often confusing to fans who want to know how well their favorite show is doing and what they can do to help. Nielsen is a company that reports viewership and demographic information for broadcast and cable programming based on a representative sample of U.S. households. Quite a few numbers are released, so let’s define them first:
Overnights: Also called preliminary ratings. This is the first estimate of a show’s ratings that typically are released for broadcast prime time shows the morning after airing, and for cable shows later that afternoon, unless there is a holiday or weekend. They are for live pus same day viewings of a program.
Finals: Also called adjusted ratings. This is a revision of the overnights that is more accurate and takes into account things like pre-emptions for sports in local markets. They typically are released the afternoon after airing.
Total viewers: Average number of viewers of any age watching the show during its airing in the U.S.. Viewership is reported in millions of people. For example, 2.456 means 2,456,000 people, or 0.085 means 85,000 people. This is not as important as the demo for determining renewal.
Demo: Short for “demographic.” Unless specified otherwise, typically refers to the adults age 18 to 49 (A18-49) demographic. This is the most important metric that is made available to the public. If someone says a show got a “1.2 rating″ they are probably referring to the A18-49 demo. The demo value is an estimate of the percentage of people in the US who have televisions and were watching that program. For example, a 2.5 means 2.5% of tv owning adults age 18 to 49 in the U.S. watched the show. If a different demo is reported, for example, F12-34, that means that 2.5% of females age 12 to 34 were watching the show.
Share: This is the percentage of people in the demo, out of those who were watching tv at that time, who were tuned to that show. It is usually reported as an integer.
L+3 and L+7: Live plus three days and live plus seven days. This adds on delayed viewing from DVR users within the specified time period. It is not as important as the live ratings. Even though many cable companies have DVR services, this value still only explicitly counts Nielsen households.
C+3: The commercial viewing within three days. This number is not released publicly, but is more similar to the live numbers than L+3, as most people who watch on DVR fast forward through the commercials. This is the metric that advertisers use.
Bubble: A show “on the bubble” is one for which the ratings are borderline between clear renewal or cancellation. Networks often wait until May to announce the fate of a bubble show.
There are many websites that report Nielsen ratings, but my go-to sites are: tvbythenumbers ShowBuzzDaily.
Q. What rating does a show need to be renewed?
The ratings value a show needs to be renewed depends on the network. A successful, prime time, scripted show on the four major broadcast networks (ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX) typically averages in the 1.5 to 2.5 range. Shows between 1.0 and 1.5 may be renewed, but it’s not guaranteed. If a show “goes fractional” (drops below 1), its fate is almost always cancellation. The fifth broadcast network, CW, doesn’t expect ratings to be as high. Typically ratings over 1.0 are excellent, between 0.5 and 1.0 are fair enough, and below 0.5 are dangerous. Summer, weekend, and non-prime time (8pm to 11pm) time slots generally have lower standards. On basic cable channels, ratings standards vary, but are often lower than the major broadcast stations. For example, on SyFy, a smash hit rates over 0.5. High number channels like BBCA may renew shows below 0.2. Premium cable operates on a different business model, as explained below, but can range anywhere from the 0.2s for Starz to over 1.0 for popular shows on HBO.
What matters for a show’s renewal is how its ratings compare to other shows currently airing on the same network. It’s pointless to compare across networks because the person making the decision about a show’s renewal has no control over what other networks do. All they can do is pick the best lineup from their available options. A bubble show may get renewed if its network is having a rough season and doesn’t have a lot of faith in the pilots coming up the pipeline. That same show might not make the cut on a good year when a network wants to make room for new projects.
The trend in ratings is also important. A show that is maintaining or growing its audience is more likely to be renewed than a show with the same average rating that is on a downward trajectory with time.
Q. Aren’t Nielsen ratings antiquated and pointless?
No. Nielsen ratings are good at doing what they’re designed to do -- which is to estimate how many people saw the ads. Most people who watch on DVR fast forward through the commercials. Do the advertisers care if you watched the show but didn’t watch their ad? Nope. And the network makes money based on how much advertisers are willing to pay to buy commercial time during its shows. What Nielsen live ratings don’t do is tell you the total number of people who watch a show at any time in any format. If a show has a large audience but only a small fraction of it watches live and sees the ads, then the network doesn’t make money, and the show gets cancelled.
Nielsen ratings measure what they’re supposed to measure. What’s outdated is the television advertising business model. Networks need to come up with new ways to make money, either through getting ads to the non-live viewers, or through a whole new system, such as partnering with subscription streaming services. When downloading music became ubiquitous due to the internet and mp3s, musicians had to change from making most of their money from album sales to concerts and merchandise. The television industry is ripe for such a paradigm shift.
Q. What about delayed viewing and L+3 and L+7 ratings?
The advertisers do actually use a three day window known as the C+3 (commercial plus three days). The C+3 is different from the L+3 in that it only counts minutes of advertising watched. So if a viewer fast forwards through the ads, they will count for the L+3 but not change the C+3. The C+3 is not released to the public, but my understanding is that it is quite similar to the live ratings. Unsurprisingly, not that many people sit through the ads when given the choice.
A more indirect way that delayed viewing ratings might help a show: It does give a better estimate of the show’s total audience, and the network may try to shift some of those viewers to watching live. This is part of why so many shows are promoting live tweeting with the cast and crew. It also may be part of the reason when a show gets moved in the schedule to a different time slot.
Q. How do I know if I’m in a Nielsen household?
If you have to ask, you’re not. It’s a whole process involving getting a letter in the mail, having some kind of special box installed, indicating who is watching when you turn on the tv, etc. Nielsen households are only a tiny percentage of the actual US population, but they are designed to be a representative sample. (If you are in a Nielsen household, please tweet me so I can give you a list of shows to watch!)
Nielsen also sends out paper diaries to some people during sweeps that are mailed back at the end of the month. (I actually did this once. I think they paid me $5 and I got to support shows I loved and ding a show that had pissed me off. It was awesome.) These don’t go into the overnight ratings, obviously, but I’d assume they are used to lower uncertainties with additional data.
Q. I’m under 18 or over 49 - why doesn’t Nielsen care about me?
It’s not that Nielsen, the network, or advertisers don’t care about reaching viewers outside the demographic age bracket. The reason is that it’s harder to reach adults in the 18-49 age bracket. It’s simple rules of supply and demand. People 50+ watch more television live than younger adults. It’s not that hard to get them to see an ad, so advertisers aren’t willing to pay much to run it during your show. But if your show has a lot of men in their late 20s and early 30s watching, for example, advertisers will pay top dollar to get their eye during that precious short amount of time they’re watching tv. On the other end, children and teenagers don’t have as much money to spend independently. They’ll still advertise to them in the hopes that they’ll badger an adult into buying something. But it’s not as lucrative as advertising directly to the adults.
Game you can play: Guess the target demographic based on the advertisements that run during a show. Ever notice how on CBS you’ll see a lot of ads for arthritis and ED medicine, while on CW you’ll see makeup and laundry detergent? The former has a largely senior audience, while the latter has a lot of young women. If you see ads primarily for big ticket or luxury items (computers, cars, appliances, etc.), it could indicate that the show is doing well in the most sought after demographics.
Q. What about online views and On Demand?
Views on a network’s website, Hulu, iTunes, Amazon, and On Demand are not currently included in Nielsen ratings, but they can be tracked by the network. A few ads may run during streaming, or the episode download may be available for purchase, but the revenue networks get from it is not as much as from traditional media (yet). If you’re not a Nielsen household, however, this is one way to make sure your views get counted at least. Arrangements between shows and streaming services may become more important in the future. There is speculation that the deal between Amazon and CBS saved Extant for a second season already.
Q. But my fav show got screwed over by the network?
If your favorite show has the same time slot as a ratings powerhouse on another channel (The Big Bang Theory, NCIS, Empire, etc.), you may think it unfair to judge it on its ratings. But the advertisers don’t care why no one is watching your show. They will only pay for the viewers that see their ads. Sometimes a network will move a show in the schedule midseason to give it another chance, but more often than not it’s too late by then.
Similarly, fans often complain that a network didn’t sufficiently promote a show or give it time to grow its audience. Sometimes a network will give a bubble show another season on condition a creative reboot. After making these changes, and perhaps bringing in some well known actors, the network may make an effort to promote the show again. Even if the show does get renewed, it’s chancy whether it will be successful - or whether the original fans like the “new” show.
Q. But someone important said X proves the show is doing well?
The network will tout all kinds of things that don’t matter to make it seem like a show still has life in it. This is because nobody wants to buy ads on a show that is already cancelled and losing viewers. Similarly, producers, writers, and actors have been known to encourage all kinds of nonsense on twitter to keep the fans engaged and lobby the network for renewal. Don’t be fooled by PR.
Q. What about subscription channels and streaming?
Premium cable channels like HBO and streaming services like Netflix operate on a different business model. Because they don’t sell commercial time, Nielsen ratings aren’t as important. They make money from people buying their subscriptions. It doesn’t matter how old or affluent those viewers are as long as they pay the monthly fee. Even the number of people who watch a given show is also not the most important thing. What matters is what shows entice a person to purchase a subscription. For example, if a particular show has a small audience, but it is the only show that those viewers watch on the network, it may be worth renewing it to keep those subscribers.
Q. What about Nielsen social ratings from tweets?
This year Nielsen starting publishing an additional “social ratings” metric separate from viewership ratings. It uses an algorithm that takes into account number of tweets, number of people tweeting, and number of people seeing tweets about a particular show. This is of interest to advertisers too as it shows not just audience, but engagement, and potential for new viewers to pick up the show and start seeing their ads too. How much this weighs into the renewal equation is unclear.
Q. What about viewer ratings on IMDB, polls, and comments?
If Nielsen ratings are abysmal, then all the IMDB votes, polls won, and comment sections in the world won’t save it. Hannibal is an example of a show that is popular online but was cancelled due to low ratings. While it does not affect a network’s renewal decision directly, heavy online activity can help a show by introducing it to new viewers. Likewise, if a show gets dragged online for some poor story decision, but viewership stays the same, then there’s no financial incentive to change anything or cancel.
Q. What other financial factors are there in show renewal?
Additional revenue streams: syndication, overseas licensing, streaming deals, merchandise sales, convention circuit. The biggest factor is syndication deals. If renewing a show for an additional season will put it over about 80 episodes, it becomes suitable for selling into syndication, which is a great money maker for no additional investment. The other factors are secondary. (But what I’d give to get a good look at their books!)
Cost side of the equation: production, actor salary. It costs a lot more to make an episode of Game of Thrones than it does to make an episode of Lost Girl. Anything that involves building large and detailed sets, filming on location around the world, high quality and extensive VFX, or a cast of thousands is going to run up the production costs compared to a little show featuring a handful of actors filming in the same house/bar and outdoor scenes that always look suspiciously like Vancouver. In addition to the cost of making the show, there is the matter of actor salaries. Just like in sports, if an actor is a “free agent” whose star is on the rise, more than one team will vie for the contract. The top three actors of The Big Bang Theory make $1 million per episode. A lead holding out can mean the end of a show, or spell out its death shortly thereafter. To keep a cash cow alive, networks may pay more each time the main actors renegotiate their contracts. If salaries are going up while ratings are going down, at some point it becomes unsustainable.
Q. What about what goes on behind closed doors?
Backroom factors and conspiracy theories: in house productions, affiliate networks, expected audience growth, image, closure, moving around talent. If I had to guess, I’d say the next biggest non-ratings factor after syndication is the pressure to have certain shows renewed because of deals with in house production companies. Almost all of the pilots picked up to series by the broadcast stations this year came from within their own company. You can think of it like a major league baseball team calling up players from their minor league farm teams instead of making a trade or signing a free agent. If the show is a hit, then their investment pays off. But there’s a risk in this, of course, because it’s better to sign a good show from another team and win than to lose with your own bad shows. For networks that are owned by the same parent company, the smaller stations may be pressed to take less successful shows originally intended for the flagship (CW and CBS, for example).
The other factors are fuzzier and difficult to quantify. Sometimes a network will try to grow a bubble show’s audience in the off season. The 100, for example, was moved from the fall to midseason for next year to give time for new viewers to discover it on Netflix. Does a network ever keep on a critically acclaimed show to make it “look good”? Some people thought that was why Hannibal got renewed for a third season, but the ratings dropped so low that the merits of keeping an art show were not enough to persuade NBC to keep it another year. A network may choose to renew or cancel a borderline show if it is trying to rebrand itself. For example, BBC3 dropped In the Flesh when it moved online and focused more on comedies. Some networks may keep a certain program if they are aiming to build up a younger or more male audience. It may even be the case that a network wants to keep a promising showrunner, but moves them on to a new project with more lucrative prospects. Finally, sometimes a long-running show will be renewed for an abbreviated final season to give it a chance to wrap up its story.
Q. What can I do as a fan to help my show get renewed?
Promotion! The best thing you, as a fan, can do, is to help grow the audience of your favorite show via word of mouth and social media. Increase Nielsen social ratings by tweeting with the show’s hashtags three hours before and after it airs. Watch the show on the network’s website. Purchase it for download online as soon as it’s available. Buy merchandise. But remember that Nielsen demo ratings for watching live are still the biggest factor in deciding a show’s fate.
