Jacaela Pregnancy Theory:
Yes, Baela's pregnancy makes total sense and yes, it is plausible to fit it in with the book series canon. We actually have enough clues to solve the puzzle at this point. Once it clicked for me, I could not return to my doubts. It's inevitable.
I've convinced myself this is happening!
With what we know so far, Jace & Baela could very well be the great grandparents of Aegon V, a.k.a. Egg, through the maternal line. That's how the Pact of Ice & Fire can come full circle eventually leading to them being ancestors of Jon & Daenerys.
In Fire & Blood, Jace makes a pact with Cregan Stark to betroth his future first born daughter to Cregan's son to secure their alliance. This ends up being crucial for finally ending the Dance. Cregan fulfills his end of the bargain while Jace cannot. Cregan returns to Winterfell with Jace's part of the oath left unkept, so the North must remember this in a future generation. The North remembers. The North always remembers.
Baela was deeply devoted to Jace and wanted to marry him immediately, insisting to fight along side him, refusing to leaving his side.
Munkin said Jace wanted to wait until after the war to marry Baela. This makes little sense. For two hormonal teenagers fighting a war where survival is uncertain, it would be within reason to suspect they might elope or copulate out of wedlock. No one wants to die a virgin. If they wed secretly, Munkin, a maester who chose a life of celibacy, would be oblivious. A man of low libido would assume it is easy for two betrothed teenagers to remain chaste after spending so much time together.
There may have been other reasons the wedding was postponed. A royal wedding during the war might have been bad optics for the queen. Perhaps they wanted to prevent pregnancy and keep Baela battle ready, so the prince would not have to perform the patrol duties assigned to her, to keep him protected as Rhaenyra’s heir. Perhaps Rhaenyra held off the wedding so that, after she kills Aegon II, the option to wed Jace to Halaena remained open. Who knows?
Soon after Jace died, Baela fooled around with squires and a kitchen boy. Perhaps this self-destructive impulsivity was her way of coping with grief or maybe she acted this way because pregnancy hormones caused her to be hypersexual. Maybe both. Perhaps Ser Robert Quince is a big fat liar. Can you trust him? He locked her up in her chambers for no good reason.
Some time after Rhaenyra had taken the throne, Baela attempted to hunt the Cannibal, but was confined to her chambers.
Dragonstone did not fall in one day...
We don’t know the actual sequence of events or how many weeks there were between Jace's death and Baela's battle with Sunfyre. Not all events have specific dates.
Jace dies on the 5th day of the 1st moon, 130 AC
Rhaenyra takes the Iron Throne
First Tumbleton -> ?? Fall of Dragonstone I / Sunfyre vs Grey Ghost / Grey Ghost Dies / Baela confined to her chambers after attempting to hunt the Cannibal ??
Daemon dies on the 22nd day of the 5th moon, 130 AC
Storming of the Dragonpit
Second Tumbleton -> ?? Fall of Dragonstone II / Baela escapes chambers / Sunfyre vs Moondancer / Moondancer dies/ Baela imprisoned in dungeons ??
Rhaenyra dies on the 22nd day of the 10th moon, 130 AC
Sunfyre dies on the 9th day of the 12th moon, 130 AC
Baela sentenced to death, rescued
Hour of the Wolf / Baela meets Cregan
The fall of Dragonstone was said to occur near the time of the first Tumbleton, when Sunfyre was seen fighting Grey Ghost. Baela's escape from confinement, battle with Sunfyre, imprisonment in dungeons were said to happen when Dragonstone fell with Rhaenyra's demise to occur “not long after”. Oddly enough, Rhaenyra's stated death date was just over 9 months after Jace's stated death date. This is actually closer to the second Tumbleton.
The timeline is so vague, it seems like the Fall of Dragonstone all happened in a day. Most likely, the series of events must have taken place over a longer time span. It isn't clear how much time passed between the first and second Tumbleton. We can just speculate Baela had been held in captivity for 8-10 months where she spent a period of time confined to her chambers and, after Moondancer dies, imprisoned in the dungeons. There's enough time for her to have had a baby without anyone besides the guards at Dragonstone being aware. She was not free to roam the castle, let alone be outdoors, with a baby bump for all to see. That's how the pregnancy was kept secret.
If the battle with Sunfyre was closer to the first Tumbleton, Baela would be in her first trimester. She’d likely be able to fight and survive with the baby inside her, but this would mean she would eventually give birth in the dungeons. Not ideal.
It is more likely the battle with Sunfyre occurred closer to the second Tumbleton and Baela would have been fighting postpartum. If she gave birth 6-8 weeks before the battle, that would be enough time to recover for the fight. Sunfyre would have already been damaged from Grey Ghost and would be easier to fight.
It really made no sense that Aegon II did not recognize Baela when he was about to behead her. What? So he ignored her all this time when she was the one who crippled him and Sunfyre? Why did Larys Strong’s men help her when they were supposed to be allied with the Greens? This part was told by Mushroom, so the inconsistencies are enough to cast doubt on his version of the story. These are plot holes deep enough to hide a very big secret.
The motives for secrecy makes sense.
If Baela revealed the true paternity of her child, it could potentially start a new phase of the war or endanger her child. At this point, she might have decided the cost of the throne is not worth it.
Even if Baela did want to claim the child was Jace's legitimate heir, it would be hard to prove it since she'd been caught with other boys. A new bastard tax had been proposed at the time and she was unwed.
She could also be forced to honor the pact with Cregan and send her child up North where her child's dragon would not be happy. Dragons do not like the cold.
Why does Baela threaten Cregan with a sword? Was she protecting something very precious to her?
First, I thought Daenaera Valeryon could be Jace & Baela's love child, however, she’s a bit too old. Also, the pact could not be fulfilled if their child was Daenaera since her descendants eventually become the Blackfyres whose bloodline does not follow the succession leading up to Jon & Dany.
Is it still possible their child ended up somewhere else in the Seven Kingdoms?
The Sarah Snow rumour told by Mushroom is a red herring, a literary device used to throw us off, foreshadow Rhaegar & Lyanna, and hint that the story of Jace & Baela will be similar. Lyanna died before marrying her betrothed and so did Jacaerys.
If Jace & Baela's story should parallel Rhaegar & Lyanna, wouldn't it be fitting if the child ended up in Dorne? Ser Arthur Dayne was present at the Tower of Joy where Lyanna birthed Jon Snow. What if House Dayne cared for the other secret heir to the Iron Throne and claimed it was a Dornish bastard girl named “Sarah Sand”?
The pact required Jace's first born daughter to be a ward in the North. Instead, she becomes a bastard of the South. Baela would prefer her child be raised in a place where a dragon has a better chance to thrive.
"To go north, you must journey south, to reach the west you must go east. To go forward you must go back and to touch the light you must pass beneath the shadow." ~ Quaithe to Danaerys, A Clash of Kings
Fire and Ice. North and South. Snow and Sand. It's poetry.
Jacaerys was a bastard living as a trueborn while his daughter would be a trueborn living as a bastard. More poetry.
The stories of the Targaryen dynasty echo throughout generations...
What do we know of Egg's mother? All we know is that she is from House Dayne and some members of this family had purple eyes and pale blond hair. Could they have acquired these Valyrian features from Jace and Baela? Dyanna Dayne is the right age to be their granddaughter.
Dyanna married Maekar, had six children, and died before Maekar became King. This would make her another "queen who never was" just like her theorized ancestors Rhaenys, Baela, and "Sarah Sand”. Even more poetry.
If this was GRRM's vision, it would be such a slam dunk. I'd be so satisfied.
This would also make Jace’s death more meaningful. Had he survived and become king, his daughter would be in Winterfell and not Dorne. The Pact of Ice and Fire joining House Targaryen and House Stark would not have needed to be fulfilled by Rhaegar marrying Lyanna. The bloodline would not branch out and converge the way it needed to for Jon & Dany to exist.
Mind you, however, if Jace survived, he and Baela would have a daughter to marry off to every kingdom and this would hold the realm united. Each of their children would have a dragon. The realm would be so overpowered versus the Night King. That would be a boring story though and not align with the prophecy of Azor Ahai, The Prince That Was Promised.
Anyway, it would be neat if Baela was Ser Arthur Dayne's great, great, great grandmother so you know where his badassery came from. He does bear a resemblance to his theorized great, great, great grandfather.
It's also worth mentioning that the ancestral sword of House Dayne is named "Dawn" while the last dragon to hatch was named "Morning". The bearer of Dawn was called the Sword of the Morning. House Dayne remained steadfastly loyal to House Targaryen until Robert's Rebellion ended them.
There are three planned books yet to be released; Winds of Winter, Dream of Spring, and Blood & Fire. All the details are still unknown to even the most astute ASOIAF fans. Many plot holes have yet to be closed, many theories are still plausible, so I'm going to latch on to this one because it makes me happy. It can't be properly proven or debunked until all the books are finished.
There is still much to be revealed. Bran could view an older Baela telling “Sarah Sand” her true identity, giving her a dragon egg in front of the heart tree. She could tell her the throne is not worth it, but she has the blood of the dragon with a chance to be a rider one day.
Maekar’s children seemed to have stronger Valyrian features than their cousins and they were obsessed with bringing dragons back. It would make sense if their mother was a secret Targaryen who had direct influence from one of the best riders in history. Could Baela have lived long enough to teach her granddaughter High Valyrian the way Rhaenys taught her?
We know GRRM is inspired by history. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes... like poetry. That’s why I like the idea that Jon Snow was not the first secret heir raised as a bastard in Westeros.
I am also looking forward to learning more about House Dayne.
Fire & Blood is not even supposed to be fully accurate. We're supposed to use our critical thinking skills. I'm only going to enjoy the show for the visuals and try to relax about plot and character development.
I'm just a little frustrated the books aren't complete. There are so many gaps in Baela's story. We don't even know when or how she dies.
Reading the book is more entertaining than watching the show, but at least it might be nice having multiple versions of the story as long as they maintain the integrity of the plot, the spirit of the characters, and the vibe of the universe. Quantum entanglements? Whatever. Most of us only accept whatever version of the non-existent truth we’re most comfortable with anyway.
I'm convinced now that this pregnancy arc will be book canon. I'm sure Condal & Co were trusted with advance manuscripts of what GRRM plans to write in the future books and we will see if this plays out in the show.
ANYWAY... If I'm totally wrong in this analysis, at least I've built a good basis for some fanfics. My time wasn't fully wasted since this was fun. Searching for answers is how I cope. :)
