Anime Score Predictions!

I've developed a model to predict anime scores and I'll post my results here!

[chonce]

#NotMyPresident

The electoral college does not vote until December 19th. We have 40 days.

What does this mean?

Right now, the presidential election results are only a PROJECTION of the election outcome. They are PRELIMINARY RESULTS. A candidate still needs to earn 270 electoral votes to win. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote, which means that more than 50% of the voters wanted her for president. The electoral college shouldn’t guarantee an override of the public’s opinion– and it doesn’t have to.

There are 21 states that do NOT restrict which candidate the electors vote for. Out of these 21, Hillary lost the following:

As you can see, these states are worth 166 electoral votes. As it currently stands, Hillary Clinton is projected to receive 232 votes. Trump is projected to win 306. This means that 37 votes need to be taken away from Trump to bring him down to 269. Hillary Clinton needs 38 votes ADDED to win 270. These electoral voters can also abstain, which means that they can refuse to vote for either candidate. If 37 of the voters within these states abstain then no candidate will have reached the required 270. In this case, the vote would be taken to the House.

Trump won Pennsylvania, a state that typically votes blue, by less than 100,000 votes. While it is highly unlikely to get all 20 electoral voters to cross party lines and vote democrat, it also isn’t impossible to convince a few of them to be “faithless electors.” We only need to convince 38 out of the 166. That is 23%. There are SIXTEEN states we need to focus our attention on.

A move like this would be unprecedented. However, as we all saw on November 8th, odds don’t guarantee reality. Trump had a less than 20% winning, yet given the circumstances, enough people came together and made it happen. We can make this happen. 

Ask yourself this: What do we have left to lose? We can stay complacent and accept that this country will be run by a racist, sexist, islamophobic, homophobic, ablest bigot, or we can at least try. 

How?

SPREAD THE WORD. Trend #NotMyPresident to let people know that we do not accept being led by a man who does not care about our wellbeing. Email your professors, email the dean of your colleges. The last thing a university wants is negative press. Millenials can take a stand, but that doesn’t mean we have to be the only ones. Church-led events helped bring a lot of disillusioned voters to the polls. Spread the word in any way possible, whether it be on Facebook, Twitter, Tumblr, or even in person. Stage a peaceful protest. Hand out flyers. Let the people around you know that you don’t accept this man as your leader when he won’t even accept you as a citizen with your designated rights.

These 166 people need to face the consequences of electing this man. 

Do this for the people who couldn’t vote. Do this for the people who live in the very real fear of being deported. Do this for the people who will have to face the rise in hate crimes. Do this for the people who have a very real possibility of losing their rights. Do this for the people who will no longer afford necessities. 

[animemodelranking-blog]

Wilhelm X Theresia

Final ship rant of the last season! This one was not one I saw coming at all.

This tells you how much of a sucker I am to well animated and well written scenes. It literally took me one episode to fall head over heels in love with the relationship Wilhem had with his wife, so once again I’ve fallen to the trap of shipping a Titanic since we all knew it sunk. As my friend likes to put it “you have a tendency to get on ships where the canon is too heavy for them to take.”

I’m also a sucker for relationships in which the guy is gruff and quiet and doesn’t really like to interact while the girl is bubbly and social and not scared to voice her thoughts. Possibly because I’m like the girl, and the guys I’ve been attracted to have all been extreme introverts.

But beyond my own preferences, the thing that stuck out to me about those two is simply how much LOVE they had for each other. Wilhelm especially considering ever since his wife’s death had never forgotten and had always hunted for the White Whale. And I do not consider it sexist at all (like some people have said) that Wilhelm “took the sword” from Theresia and that his reasoning was to “protect her”.

There’s many ways to interpret it after all. One is that he’s simply being a normal human being by wanting to protect someone he cares about – I’m sure she feels the same way about him. Another is that he could possibly be saying that he will protect her from holding the sword again – as it has been made clear over and over despite her prodigal skills, she doesn’t actually LIKE to use the sword. And either of those work for me because it shows just how dedicated and in love Wilhelm was with her.

But nothing beats the scene where Wilhelm facing the white whale was entwined with the scene where he defeats Theresia for the first time to prevent her from becoming the Master Swordsman. Once again, he was at his most powerful for the sake of a woman he loved dearly. And the ending scene where he screamed “I love you” to the rising sun in accordance with when he promised her he’ll tell her that when he “felt like it” was beautifully done and gave me chills.

[animemodelranking-blog]

Ikta x Yatori

Second ship rant of the season, here we go! Top 5 anime scores of Spring 2016 will finally be out tomorrow. I wanted to wait for JoJo and Sousei since they’re still airing but decided against it. Warning: IT’S LONG AS ALWAYS

When I first decided to write a ship rant on these two, I wanted to address the comments who accused me that I only take the approach of “love friendships” towards boy x boy and girl x girl ships, but abandons that when it comes to straight possible couples. But at this point, I could care less, because I just want to discuss their relationship with each other since it’s so intriguing and painful at the same time.

I think it’s clear for any anime watcher to know that these two are deeply entwined – yet at the same time seems to show no explicit romantic feelings towards each other. I see these two more as friends with a line drawn in between, one that neither will ever cross to the consideration of romantic feelings. They’re both very logical people and seeing how their families turned out know that the very idea of an actual romantic relationship developing between them is impossible, so they don’t even consider it.

Despite that, their relationship is extraordinarily interesting to see on the screen. They have complete understanding of each other and how each other think. That’s precisely why they’re so formidable when the two work together on the battlefield. They don’t even need signals to know exactly what the next step one takes. They admire each other for their respective strengths and keep each other under control. In Ikta’s case, he watches out for Yatori where her penchant for drawing blood goes overboard and overtake her.

I know Yatori had a lot of bad press when she seems to wholeheartedly serve her family and the awful royal family – putting Ikta down every time he goes out of bounds. But in my eyes, this is her way of protecting him. If she supports him outwardly or lets him do as he pleases, she puts her own family and most definitely Ikta in danger. By subduing him before he can actually do something, she prevents him from actually committing an action that would be considered “treason” and saves his life.

Their private conversations also reveal a lot of how much they care for each other and are painfully aware of the “opposite” sides they’re on. I personally think Yatori actually supports Ikta’s thoughts on the Empire, but due to her family and upbringing simply couldn’t allow herself to side with him even if she wants to. Their relationship is complicated and an absolute delight to see, and enjoyable right where it is right now without going into romantic territory. y�l�\

[animemodelranking-blog]

Kakeru x Naho

First ship rant here for the season! Spoilers likely below!

I wasn’t a huge shipper of Kakeru and Naho at first. No, I am not a shipper of Suwa and Naho either, but this is a Kakeru and Naho rant, so I will not be discussing the other ship. Immediately after the realization came that Kakeru was suffering from depression, I wasn’t too sure about Naho and her future with Kakeru. The biggest reason is her passivity. She’s extremely shy and with low self-esteem, and thus that makes her extremely passive. From my own personal experience with friends who suffered from depression, they’ve always done much better with someone who was proactive.

As a result, I found myself thinking Suwa’s influence on Kakeru was even better than Naho’s. Suwa was extremely proactive on helping Kakeru, going every step of the way with lots of energy and lots of grandeur. He wasn’t scared to sacrifice things, and he knew there was only one goal that he needed to reach. In fact, he did so much that Naho didn’t even have to do certain things the letter told her to do (finding out Kakeru’s birthday, getting Kakeru to join the soccer club, stopping Kakeru from hanging out with his Tokyo friends to name three).

One thing was certain – Naho’s going to have to change and grow, because this proactivity is very much against her personality. And if any of you saw my Myers Briggs analysis of hers, as well as evidenced from the anime, she is NOT very adaptable to change. So I held my reservations with the two even though it was clearly evident that the two very much liked each other.

This began to change near the end of the series. Naho was clearly showing signs of forcing herself out of the box. She went out of her way to talk to him after the fight. She specifically was open about her feelings. She stood up for herself against Ueda-senpai with pride. And it’s clear that this effort she’s making, she wants it to last. Pile that on top of everything she’s been doing, all with the best intentions in mind, I can now see Naho growing and becoming the better person she hoped to be in the future.

Kakeru, himself, still have a lot to work on, especially with the onset of his depression. Do I believe he’s ready for a relationship? Not really. I think he should still take some time to get himself even steadier on his feet. But at the very least, he now knows that his friends are with him every step of the way.

Do I have hope for these two in the future? Absolutely. With the initiative Naho has taken and with Kakeru feeling not as alone, I can see them working out beautifully in the future. But for now, I support them with quiet encouragement and hope for the best in whatever events there are 10 years in the future.

[animemodelranking-blog]

Yeah I am curious about what "features" you are using to predict the score! Thanks^^

So the variables I use: Season airing, Number of Top Male Characters (based off of a polling chart), Number of Top Female Characters (also based off of same polling chart), First Episode Views, First Episode Comment Rate, and number of award winning seiyuus in the cast. 

Season airing is self explanatory. The charts I used are from Anime Trending. First episode views and comment rate is provided by a friend who also provides the official Japanese anime scores, and the number of award winning seiyuus I personally count from each anime’s listed cast. I use RStudio to create the model. Does that help?

[animemodelranking-blog]

Hi! I was wondering if you could tell more about the model you have developed to predict anime score(like which algorithm did you use). I am pretty new to coding and machine learning stuff and would like to make (or at least try) something similar!

Well it’s more like a mathematical/statistical equation than an actual algorithm haha. I’m not sure if you’re still interested in what goes into the equation?

[animemodelranking-blog]

Top 5 Anime Predictions

1. Shokugeki no Souma S2 - 83.1

2. ReLIFE - 79.3

3. Kono Bijutsubu ni wa Mondai ga Aru! - 76.3

4. D. Gray-man Hallow - 76.2

5. Tales of Zestiria the X - 75.7

I think this is a pretty solid list and with the scores as well! The only one that really surprised me was Kono Bijutsubu which I personally think and hope would be replaced by Orange instead.

[animemodelranking-blog]

Top 5 Winter Anime

1. Boku Dake ga Inai Machi - 83.9

2. Shouwa Genroku Rakugo Shinjuu - 80.8

3. Ansatsu Kyoushitsu 2 - 78.8

4. Gate 2nd Season - 78.5

5. KonoSuba - 78.1

Prediction Accuracy: 3/5 (Boku Dake ga Inai Machi, Ansatsu, and KonoSuba)

Thoughts: A pretty good set of animes for winter. I knew that Shouwa and Gate were going to make to top 5 - but it’s also a big change since Durarara had made top 5 for every single season when airing except for this season. It is, however, in 6th place.

[animemodelranking-blog]

Atsushi X Kyouka

Last ship of the season!  Atsushi X Kyouka is a bit of a different ship for me because I rarely ship anyone after watching their interactions for a total of 2 episodes. In fact, I am a very picky shipper. I have two rounds of rules ships must go through – one that is preliminary before I can even consider shipping them, the second more of my personal preference. So onwards!

The biggest thing that jumped out to me about those two in particular are their similar experiences with their powers. Unlike the rest of the agency (thus far, as we do not know everyone’s past), Kyouka and Atsushi went through very unhappy – in fact rather traumatizing situations – due to their powers. For Kyouka it was forced enslavement to work that she never even desired. For Atsushi, it was constant rejection for something he had no control over or was even aware about. As a result, due to their similarities in which their powers did not bring them any luck or benefits but rather lots of losses, I feel as if they immediately could connect unlike Atsushi with the others in the Agency and vice versa for Kyouka.

 And it’s that very connection I think that prompts Atsushi to fight so hard for Kyouka – wanting her to experience a better life that he is now experiencing (debatable with all the danger but hey, at least he’s not starving to death). Kyouka, on the other hand, most likely sees Atsushi as the one who helped break her chains and made her realize that her powers aren’t here to be used for the sake of assassination only, but could be used to help protect the world and its people. As a result, I feel already the two of them do care a lot for each other even if their interactions hadn’t been for very long. They are both also relatively inexperienced with the normal world whether it’s sightseeing sites or different food to be explored, which makes for cuter interactions.

  Last of all, one of the biggest items on my secondary rules for ships is competency. And for Atsushi, whose powers are almost invincible considering how fast he heals, that rule is a bit tricky. Yet Kyouka completes him in areas he is lesser in – intelligence as well as experience in the field, an overall steel will that makes her unafraid to move forward to face an impossible enemy, as well as a mighty powerful ability herself. I could see those two becoming a badass power couple in the future once Atsushi really has control of his abilities as a whole.

[animemodelranking-blog]

Rinne X Sakura

Second ship rant! Beware of it’s length!

First of all, I am biased in the fact that I simply adore Rokudo. I found him to be such a sweet guy – and is also a nice change of pace in Rumiko-sensei’s usual works in that the main character have all been particularly hotheaded. In this case, Rokudo is exactly the opposite. One of his biggest strengths is remaining calm and polite in situations, and the fact that he’s also super shy just adds into how much I love him.

So before I started shipping the two of them, it was more of an adoration for Rokudo. He’s just so polite and sweet and hardworking. Calling Sakura by her full name could be seen as two ways which is either professionalism or apparently in Japanese culture, it’s known as the ultimate respect for people who are your age. So not only does he care about her, he respects her a lot.

There were small moments I appreciated between the two of them – such as Sakura lending him money constantly, visiting him since he lives alone in such a shabby place, as well as him catching that dolphin stuffed animal for her (which she obviously kept). But the big thing that sold me on this ship actually happened last season – when Rinne was unrightfully attacked for his father’s mistakes and had his soul forcefully separated from his body. While everyone else was just freaking out uselessly, Sakura was the only one who stepped up to the plate. Unlike her usual passive self, she immediately began telling the others their plan of actions, that they should actually calm down and THINK things through before acting like he is forever dead.

I came to realize that Sakura’s passivity actually isn’t that she doesn’t have a personality – she’s just too smart to actually get in the way since Rinne obviously knows what he’s doing whenever he’s exorcising. The only times she does step in, she often was a great help for Rinne – warning him of unforeseen dangers or actually physically defending him or Rokumon. As a result, she is never a liability to him.

So as I continued watching, their interactions with each other just grew on me. And since it’s become obvious that both of them are interested in each other, it’s painful knowing it’s probably going to take forever (maybe the end) before they ever become canon.

[animemodelranking-blog]

Tsuyopon X Yukirin

It’s the end of the Spring season which means it’s SHIP RANTS TIME! First one of the three! And as rants always go - BEWARE FOR THE LENGTH!

I found Tsuyopon X Yukirin a breath of fresh air in a shoujo. You typically don’t see much coverage of any stable couple – and even though this ship is covered the least in the anime as a whole – we are given more insight into their characters and the relationship they have with each other more than shoujos usually give.

I think one of the biggest things that appeals to me for this ship (and official couple since they are canon) is that Yukirin is the more “aggressive” one – or the more proactive one in the relationship. The fact that she’s actually the one who asked him out is really nice to see because generally men are always “expected” to be the one to ask the girl out, and girls are the ones who are “expected” to wait. In this case, the opposite was true and the writing of the couple only showed that these types of pairings work out just as fine as the conventional boys-should-ask-girls-out scenarios.

I also think they truly do complement each other very well. Even though Tsuyopon is not an affectionate guy and doesn’t particular like to show his affection for her in any sense, Yukirin understands it and jokes about it in a very non-mocking way. She is completely okay that he isn’t someone who likes to be lovey and dovey and also doesn’t force him to be that way either. She just continues with her love showering as she is without being bothered.

In retrospect, Tsuyopon also makes himself go halfway by noticing Yukirin doesn’t demand him of doing such things and thus, makes sure there are moments where he allows himself to go out of his comfort zone if it means making her happy such as actually kissing in public or holding hands with her tightly at the concert – something that does not go unnoticed by Yukirin.

All in all, I found their relationship to be extremely healthy with both sides willing to meet halfway. They can seem to be very much opposites – but if you watch them carefully, you’ll realize that they are more similar than they act as sharing the same hobbies makes them think in similar ways albeit simply expressed in different levels and tones.

[animemodelranking-blog]

Top 5 Predicted Spring Animes

1. Sousei no Onmyouji - 80.9

2. Bungou Stray Dogs - 78.7

3. Boku no Hero Academia - 77.5

4. Kiznaiver - 77.3

5. Sakamoto desu ga? - 74.9

Thoughts: I think Sousei is overscored in this case - even if I’m also estimating that it’ll probably have at least a 70+ score. The three I think that are underestimated are JoJo which has a history of fantastic scores (high 70's to low 80's), Koutetsujou no Kabaneri, and Re Zero

[littlebluecaboose]

UNCLE GEORGE IS FUCKING PISSED

[animemodelranking-blog]

Real v Predicted Fall 2015

Good Predictions

One Punch Man

Real - 86.5 Predicted - 74.6

Haikyuu!! 2

Real - 85.5 Predicted - 85.9

Noragami Arogoto

Real - 82.6 Predicted - 82.8

Owari no Seraph: Nagoya Kessen-hen

Real - 75.7 Predicted - 74.1

Underestimated Animes

Owarimonogatari

Real - 81 Predicted - 67.6

Overestimated Animes

K: Return of Kings

Real - 73.9 Predicted - 75.3

Thoughts: Last season’s predictions were extremely accurate with 4 out of 5 actually being scored for top 5. Owarimonogatari was a complete miss probably due to the small cast of award winning seiyuus as well as not too many views/comment rate on the very first week. K: Return of Kings wasn’t exactly off in scoring too much, but simply didn’t make top 5

[eidolonland]

Wolves Flirting. Gifs made from this video.

[thedescentintoinsanity]

@animemodelranking

[animemodelranking-blog]

Top 5 Predicted Winter Animes

1. Boku Dake ga Inai Machi

2. Dimension W

3. Akagami no Shirayuki-hime Season 2

4. Assassination Classroom Season 2

5.  Kono Subarashii Sekai ni Shukufuku wo!

Thoughts: Soooo I didn’t post the actual scores the model predicted this time around b/c it’s rather...low to say the least. AKA some tweaking of the model needs to be done for winter animes (not sure how it turned out this way tbh). I still think this is a pretty solid top 5 list though! My guesses for the “surprise Top 5 entrances” are either Shouwa Rakugo or Gate

[briannaefraser]

when all you want is for your favorite character to be happy but all they get to be is dead