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Ascel Bio's 2015 Forecast for Lyme Disease - we are entering peak season!

A Watch Notice remains in effect for Ebola in West Africa. Levels of community strain remain high. The level of crisis caused by the current Ebola outbreak remains far more severe on a relative basis than the level of crisis caused by any other disease anywhere else in the world, as measured by Ascel Bio according to the Infectious Disease Impact Scale (or “IDIS”, see Page 3). Above, the graphical representation of the spectrum of probabilities that Ebola is causing an Infectious Disease Impact Scale Category 2 to Category 6 level crisis in each country. The IDIS scale is described on the final page of this report. Blue is lowest level of crisis, yellow is bad but still relatively normal. The oranges and deep reds are indications of serious crisis. A typical influenza season has no more than 5-6 percent orange, with no red and just 30% yellow.

Great art at Harvard Art Museum includes a series of cast bronze pieces "Medals of Dishonour" by David Smith. Death by Bacteria (1939), Death by Gas (1939-1940), Scientific Body Disposal (1939). 75 years later we still have to be concerned about these issues! May 2015 see their end!

Ascel Bio's full year forward forecast for Legionellosis issued in January 2014 for the year ahead for England. The forecast was prepared using Ascel Bio's proprietary Delphi forecasting software using PHE and other data.

http://www.dartmouthatlas.org/data/map.aspx?ind=192&ch=201&tf=23&loct=3&extent=-14071323.410590487%202305693.8872850095%20-7398676.589409513%206806306.112714991%2C-14071323.410590487%202305693.8872850095%20-7398676.589409513%206806306.112714991

The level of crisis caused by the current Ebola outbreak remains far more severe on a relative basis than the level of crisis caused by any other disease anywhere else in the world, measured by Ascel Bio. To demonstrate the difference, Infectious Disease Impact Scale (or “IDIS”, see Page 3) measurements of outbreak impact on a country-by-country basis are provided in the following “Impact Heat Bars”. At left, a graphical representation of the spectrum of probabilities that Ebola is causing an Infectious Disease Impact Scale Category 2 to Category 6 level crisis in each country. The IDIS scale is described on the final page of this report. Blue is lowest level of crisis, yellow is bad but still relatively normal. The oranges and deep reds are indications of serious crisis. A typical influenza season has no more than 5-6 percent orange, with no red and just 30% yellow. Ebola impact here is contrasted with an unusual Enterovirus outbreak in the United States.

#ascelbio #ebola #Liberia #sierraleone #Guinea #Enterovirus

The level of crisis caused by the current Ebola outbreak remains far more severe on a relative basis than the level of crisis caused by any other disease anywhere else in the world, measured by Ascel Bio. To demonstrate the difference, Infectious Disease Impact Scale measurements of outbreak impact on a country-by-country basis are provided in the following “Impact Heat Bars”.

This image is a graphical representation of the spectrum of probabilities that Ebola is causing an Infectious Disease Impact Scale Category 2 to Category 6 level crisis in Liberia vs Nigeria. Blue is lowest level of crisis, yellow is bad but still relatively normal. The oranges and deep reds are indications of serious crisis. A typical influenza season has no more than 5-6 percent orange, with no red and just 30% yellow.

What was said vs. what happened.

#Ebola's impact can be measured, and is being measured by Ascel Bio.

Forecasts for USA (90 Days August-October 2013)

#Infectious Disease #Ascel BIO #Forecasts 2013 #Whooping COugh #Lyme Disease #Flu #E.Coli #Giardiasis #Salmonella #90 day forecast #2013 #ascelbio #ascelbio.com #updates #USA Health Issues

nprglobalhealth

How Midwives Have Become Critical In War Zones

In a conflict zone, getting the basics — food, water, shelter — is a constant challenge. And it likely involves being on the move.

Now imagine pregnancy. There might not be a functioning medical facility for miles. And the environment makes the woman and her baby more susceptible to complications.

Aid groups are increasingly relying on conflict midwives to help women in these situations. In dangerous and unstable regions, midwives’ jobs are more than delivering babies: They often have to help women who have experienced sexual violence and have reproductive health issues.

Take Emily Slocum, a midwife with Doctors Without Borders who worked with women affected by the violent conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Some women traveled days to reach her.

The Congo war lasted from 1998 to 2004, but as NPR’s John Burnett has reported, ongoing conflict continues to disrupt daily life. The country has millions of displaced people.

Slocum worked at a hospital in South Kivu, where the conflict still lingers, from November 2011 to May 2012. She tells Shots that one of the challenges was keeping underweight newborns warm. Without an incubator, the best practice is to have the mother hold the baby to her skinto keep its body temperature up, she says. She had to teach nurses and mothers to do that when she arrived

Photograph by Jonathan Saruk for International Medical Corps

doctorswithoutborders

Photo: MSF team negotiating with community leaders to start mobile clinics. Afghanistan 2013. © Heru Sutanto Koerniawan.

MSF sets up its first mobile clinic in Afghanistan to increase the coverage of vaccinations and improve preventative healthcare. Read more on how the team set up and spread awareness about the clinic in Lara’s blog post.

#ascel bio #ascelbio #infectious diseases #interesting #knowledge

npr

Cyclo-What? A Nasty Stomach Bug Spreads In The Midwest

A rare parasite has sickened at least 315 people across 14 states, health officials said. The culprit is cyclospora, a food-borne bug that causes wicked diarrhea. People typically catch the parasite from contaminated vegetables, but the source of this outbreak is still unknown.

Read the story on NPR’s Shots health blog.

(Illustration: Centers for Disease Control)