Thoughts on the election
Itâs time to put my word vomit somewhere.
I didnât support Trump. I also didnât support Clinton, or Johnson, or Stein. I went into the polling booth confident that I was going to vote one way and after praying voted in a way I didnât expect.
Did my vote matter? Almost for sure not. Thatâs the way the electoral college system works. That doesnât mean it should be thrown out. Much has been said about Clinton winning the popular vote, but she didnât have a clear majority (50%). Most elections in this country require a majority of something (either popular vote or electors).
Plus, we canât know if Trump would have campaigned the way he did if it was a straight popular vote. Trump won according to the rules of the game. A Washington Monthly writer compares it to another game, saying âYou can make that argument, but the team with more runs will point out that they werenât even trying to get more base hits, and they would have tried if they had known that those were the rules.â [1]
Thereâs always the extreme case of an election like 2000 on the national level. Imagine a nationwide recount. We may never find out who wins that election.
The more realistic concern is that certain areas will be marginalized. Why campaign in Dubuque, Iowa, when there are way more voters in Los Angeles or Dallas. Either Republicans in CA and Democrats in TX get marginalized, or all of the rural areas get marginalized.
The concerns of Southern CA natives is not the concern of those in the Pacific Northwest, or that in New England, or in the Deep South, or the Midwest. The electoral college maintains the value of each state, and by virtue, their values.
Donât get me wrong, the electoral college is broken. But a straight popular vote isnât the solution. Maybe we should adopt Nebraska and Maineâs proportional system [2]. I donât know if thatâs the best solution.
Anyways, the electoral college is written into our constitution. Until an amendment is written and ratified, any ideas are that, just ideas.
As for Trumpâs campaign, from a pure historical and political science perspective, it was quite intriguing. Trump won because he built a multi-ethnic, broad coalition with an unified message [3]. Somehow.
The Latinos came out to vote. And many of them voted for Trump [4]. Women, as expected, voted less often for Trump, but not as much as expected (only 2%). And Trump did as well or gained with blacks and young people [5].
But obviously, thatâs not why Trump won. He won by saying a clear message and continuing to attack the establishment.
Iâm not saying I agree with him. But he does make several good points.
I heard anecdotal evidence on the radio that some voters in PA voted Trump simply because Obamacare rates increased. Trump has never stopped attacking Obamacare. He represents change for many people dissatisfied with the establishment.
Any future grass-roots populist movement needs to watch what Trump did. He is rewriting textbooks. Trump, from the beginning, ran his campaign like a product. He found short memorable nicknames (âLittle Marcoâ, âLying Tedâ, âCrooked Hillaryâ) and slogans (âMake America Great Againâ) that people on both sides were talking about. Anyone who read the tea leaves shouldnât have been surprised. Trump is good at what he does.
Washington missed it. The media missed it. The pollsters missed it. Trump won because the working-class American (mostly white males, but also black, Hispanic, Asian, and female) was fed up with the way the system was.
Clinton was not in touch with her base. Trump was. That is why he won.
Crazy prediction:Â https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LibRNYJmZ-I
More links:
1. http://washingtonmonthly.com/2015/06/15/the-popular-vote-is-a-bad-idea/
2. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/curtis-gans/national-popular-vote_b_1189390.html
3. http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2016-election-day/trump-did-better-blacks-hispanics-romney-12-exit-polls-n681386
4. http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/11/09/why-the-latino-vote-didn-t-save-america.html
5. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/09/hillary-clinton-failed-to-win-over-black-hispanic-and-female-vot/
















