Shipping Can't Keep Up With The Internet. Here's Why
Technology has changed every way we shop and driven costs down in every aspect, agreed?
It still takes time in the neighbourhood of days and we've hit rock bottom on prices which is still too high to make things like buying all your groceries online viable--except maybe very densely populated areas.
The biggest retailers online like Amazon and Walmart (should) have major vested interest in making shipping faster and cheaper. We often think of ourselves, individually, as the users of inventions when really new technology needs a driving force, organizations behind it to buy units/give money, to gain traction. You'll see this same principle later when it comes to robot cars.
So if we follow the money regarding shipping, it isn't the post office which is moving less individual packages by the day. It's the giants who want to reduce waste and time (both equaling a chunk out of their profit) in shipping from manufacturer to warehouse and from warehouse to buyer; whether that's your house or a retailer.
So let's look at the factors holding shipping back:
Essentially, transports are keeping us in the 20th century. Planes are great for moving small things (like people) very fast for a lot of money. Ships can move huge things (cargo) pretty quickly for a bit less money but if we took all the pieces being moved around North America, it's mostly by trucks, both big and small. So if our cheapest, easiest and most common way of moving products around is broken, what's the solution?
Electric power will reduce our dependence on oil, yes. But will it be cheaper? Depends on what supplies the juice. Another story for another time.
The biggest problem, outside of the batteries, is a little something called torque. It's the force that gives cars acceleration and trucks towing power. Our current (no pun intended) battery technology wouldn't ever be able to move a 22-ton semi-trailer.
That is, unless the trailer itself was a battery, thus defeating the purpose of using a transport in the first place.
Robotics are fast approaching on the horizon of 'real potential' and while most people are imaging themselves being able to watch a movie on the way to work while their car drives them there, the actual benefactor is going to be shipping.
We'll be able to load an 18-wheeler, send it on it's way, without stopping, to it's destination, and unpack all automatically done by robots. The caveat is that 'truck driver' will no longer be a career option. But the overall benefit to our economy and society far outweighs losing an entire category of job. We shouldn't let this hold us back.
The 3rd issue that needs to be tackled is speed limits. It's a bit of a moral one as well because every kilometer we raise it, the more chance of someone ending up dead. That's just the way it works. So it'll be hard to look into this one until robot cars (and trucks) are ruling the roads. 1
Where does this leave us?
Pretty far from shipping goods and products across the country efficiently anytime soon.
What could be done in the next 10 years?
High-speed rail systems throughout the US
Uber for shipping (maybe Uber themselves)
Let's take a look at a high-speed rail system across the country: while maybe not cheaper versus diesel-engine trains, it'd definitely be quicker and in the world of shipping, some customers value time > cost. Look at it this way: (numbers pulled out of a hat, not actual stats) High-speed train = 1.5x time of plane AND .5x cost of plane. People who need it quicker than trucking it but not as fast as flying it could take the rail route.
Uber is an interesting company because it's very quickly putting a lot of cars on the roads in the biggest cities around the world. And while a Lincoln can't move freight anytime soon, it can deliver packages from point A to point B within a city. Now a high-end taxi company disrupting the shipping world didn't make sense to me until someone told me how they're building both infrastructure and technology of moving vehicles around extremely efficient and can easily by duplicated for shipping. They're also better situated to do something like this because they have traction and the money.
As much as Uber is remaking the entire taxi industry, it could make that look like chicken feed compared to being the next UPS.
Lastly, drones? On a scale of 1 to April Fools Day joke, I think they'll forever stay closer to the latter.
So what have we learned? That shipping is holding us back in a major way, that it's ripe for disruption, but the technology needed for these breakthroughs are still years off leaving us working with what's available in today's world which might just be good enough to get the job done.
Then again... 3D printing might become cheap enough that we'll just print every physical item we need in real-time and do away with the factories that make products and shipping will become a thing of the past.
1 This raises the question; could accidents become a thing of the past when computers are driving our vehicles? It should be Yes because they'll know how far behind the car ahead to be, warning signs of vehicles around it, weather conditions and, above all, it'll be keeping track of this 100%, unlike our texting, eating, make-up-doing, keeping-the-kids-in-the-backseat-from-fighting mind. I doubtful accidents will be unheard of, just much rarer.
2 Yes, drones are pretty far-fetched at this point and the most sci-fi of all the above options but there's potential if the technology works and regulations with airspace are passed.
Brian Butler is the author of goodluckbrian.com. You can follow him on Twitter or at Google+.
