8 GOP Presidential Candidates (and why they won't win)
It's November 3rd, which means the race to 2012 is on! Here's my take on eight leading Republican presidential candidates, and why I think they can't win in 2012. Candidates listed alphabetically.
Chris Christie: His stewardship of the state of New Jersey has been... well... difficult. He was elected on a promise to lower taxes. He's achieving that by cutting services, specifically to education. He even dropped the ball on a large package of federal education money by not filling out his paperwork. His sabotage of a much needed tunnel expansion between New York and New Jersey cost the region hundreds of jobs and deprived the metro area of a much-needed infrastructure enhancement, which would facilitate commerce and allow goods and services to flow freely between New York and New Jersey's choked arteries.
He has no national experience, and his only national exposure to speak of has come from his public blunders. He could conceivably win a primary, but running on a promise to cut services will not resonate in a general election.
Newt Gingrich: The former Republican Speaker led the nation down a treacherous path when he pursued the impeachment of the president in the late 90s. It was a petty and futile partisan gesture. Don't expect a primary victory from this historical figure who once derided welfare recipients as "welfare queens"; Republican primary voters will not be looking to rehash the conflicts of the past: they will be focused on a new set of issues.
Rudy Guiliani: The so-called Mayor of 9-11, Guiliani's disastrous 2008 bid should be evidence enough. Liberal positions on social issues make him unpalatable for Tea Party primary voters. National Security, his supposed strong suit, does not figure to be a major issue in the 2012 race, barring a major terrorist attack. He's also getting filthy rich in the private sector, making a costly presidential run even more unlikely.
Sarah Palin: This Tea Party king (and queen) maker speaks loudly and carries a big Twitter account. Her tendency to speak freely has endeared her to America's heartland but it also leads her off message. She is repugnant to a large percentage of the electorate, and will be eviscerated by late night talk shows if she makes a run.
Sarah Palin is now a brand and an industry. Would not be surprising for her to bank on her newfound stardom and sit this race out. She does not have the support of many in the party establishment, and has low favorability ratings.
Ron Paul: Given the momentum of the Tea Party movement, it's not hard to imagine a Paul victory in the primaries. His extreme libertarian views make him an unlikely victor in a general election, as the radical center will reject him outright.
Tim Pawlenty: This Minnesota governor is too mild-mannered to win an extended primary battle in the current environment. In a primary that is likely bruising and angry, it is unlikely that Pawlenty will be able to pander to the lowest common denominator, though his centrist views make him an attractive general election candidate to face Obama. But will nominating a centrist candidate demotivate the fired-up Tea Party?
Mitt Romney: The former Republican governor from Massachusetts will not win. Even if he wins over Christian conservatives, who have been suspicious of his mormonism, he cannot do it. He is too off beat, too out of touch to win. Most importantly, his past liberal positions on abortion and health care means he will not survive a Republican primary given the current environment.
Marco Rubio: The Senator-Elect from Florida has a bright future ahead of him. His meteoric rise from humble beginnings is certainly inspiring. Can this Tea Party favorite win a Republican primary? Experience should be a factor.
Obama was largely criticized by Republicans for being under qualified because he had just four years of experience in the US Senate. Marco Rubio will have had two years of experience in 2012. If he runs, videos of his GOP backers will surface denouncing Obama as "not-ready" and "inexperienced". How will they defend their support of Rubio?
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